Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as energy prices, weather, and supply - demand relationships. Different soft commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose and then fell, driven by energy and overall commodity strength. Spot basis is stable, and spot trading is average. Domestic commercial inventory is well - digested, and the expectation of tight supply continues. Short - term demand feedback is average. High - combed yarn orders are good, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season is unfavorable for sugarcane growth, and the sugar - making ratio is expected to decline in the next season, reducing sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. As of February 28, 2025/26, Guangxi's sugar production and sales progress is slow, with a significant decline in sales due to bearish sentiment. Production progress is slow despite a strong increase expectation. Temporarily wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The spot price is stable. After the festival, the procurement enthusiasm in the northwest产区 has increased, and the shipment has accelerated. The inventory in cold storage has decreased year - on - year, providing strong support for the spot price. The trading focus is on the demand side. In Shandong, the quality is poor but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of hoarding is strong, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Temporarily wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR are highly volatile, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price has continued to rise sharply. The supply of global natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has decreased. The domestic tire operating rate has continued to rise significantly. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, the social inventory of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the upstream butadiene port inventory has increased. Geopolitical risks have increased, with cost - driven factors, domestic demand is accelerating recovery, and external demand is temporarily frustrated. For RU&NR, wait and see; BR is strong, and the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity is coming to an end [5] Pulp - Pulp rose and then fell, driven by the overall commodity trend. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, and there is cost support in the long - term. The domestic pulp demand is average, and the downstream paper price and profit are poor. The pulp price is supported at the previous low, and the upside is limited by port inventory pressure and weak downstream demand. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Logs - The futures price is running strongly. The spot price is stable. The overseas quotation has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume may be relatively low. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume has increased. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" demand peak season is coming. The national port log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Temporarily wait and see [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and tin, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainties in tariff policies, leading investors to seek hard assets for hedging [2] - Silver's price increase has outpaced gold, causing the gold-silver ratio to drop below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating potential market shifts where either gold may catch up or silver may correct [2] - The CME has tightened risk control measures, changing margin calculations for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to a percentage of nominal value, which will require traders to increase collateral as prices rise [2] Group 2 - The latest gold T+D market analysis shows a slight decline but maintains a strong upward trend, with prices holding above the critical level of 1030 yuan per gram, supported by factors such as expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased global central bank gold purchases [3] - Technical indicators suggest continued bullish momentum, with key support levels identified between 1025-1028 yuan per gram and resistance levels moving up to 1035-1040 yuan per gram, with a potential challenge of the psychological level of 1050 yuan per gram [3] - The market is characterized by strong demand for safe-haven assets, high trading volumes, and robust bullish sentiment, driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar index [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 1024.66 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.56%, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][3] - The U.S. households hold a total of approximately 4.3 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury securities, significantly surpassing their gold and silver assets, which are only about 290 billion USD for gold ETFs and 50 billion USD for silver funds [1] - The technical analysis of gold T+D shows a strong bullish pattern, with key indicators such as MACD and RSI suggesting continued upward momentum [3] Group 2 - The market sentiment remains strong, with high participation levels reflected in stable positions and trading volumes, indicating solid bullish confidence [3] - Geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are identified as core drivers for the current gold price movements [3] - A potential breakthrough above the previous high of 1035 yuan per gram could open up further upward space towards 1050 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market experienced a historic bull market in 2025, with silver and platinum showing annual gains exceeding 170% [1][21][28] - Gold, silver, and platinum prices all broke historical peaks, driven by strong upward momentum and a combination of supply-demand fundamentals and capital rotation [1][21][28] - The report suggests that investors should be cautious as precious metal prices have reached historic highs, recommending gradual participation after significant price corrections in January 2026 [1][21][28] Group 2 - In 2025, the overall precious metals market exhibited a broad upward trend, with silver and platinum significantly outperforming gold, reflecting dual drivers of supply-demand fundamentals and capital rotation [21][28] - The price statistics for precious metals at the end of 2025 show substantial increases, with SHFE gold rising by 58.27%, COMEX gold by 65.57%, SHFE silver by 125.85%, and COMEX silver by 142.44% [22][23][24] - December 2025 saw an acceleration in precious metal prices, particularly for silver and platinum, which experienced explosive growth, highlighting the resonance of market sentiment and supply-demand gaps [25][28] Group 3 - The core reasons for the significant price increases in precious metals in 2025 include global liquidity easing, tight supply-demand dynamics, rising geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [28][29][30] - The expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with anticipated interest rate cuts, has increased the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, silver, and platinum [28][29] - Structural supply shortages in platinum and silver, driven by production constraints and high demand in industrial applications, have led to price elasticities that exceed those of gold [30][31] Group 4 - The trend of central banks accumulating gold and the move towards de-dollarization have provided structural support for gold prices, with global central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually [30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East, have fueled safe-haven demand for precious metals, further driving prices upward [31][32] - Market sentiment has shifted towards a "buy the rise" mentality, exacerbating price volatility and leading to speculative inflows that have amplified price increases for silver and platinum [32][33] Group 5 - The outlook for January 2026 indicates a likely continuation of high volatility in the precious metals market, with potential for differentiated performance among various metals [33][34] - Gold is expected to experience high volatility around the $4,500 per ounce mark, with potential upward movement if economic data supports further rate cuts [34] - Silver is anticipated to maintain high elasticity but faces increased risk of correction due to prior significant price increases, with expected trading in the $60-$85 per ounce range [35][36]