Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound of lithium carbonate futures, following a significant correction, indicates a shift in market logic from macroeconomic sentiment to fundamental drivers [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In January, lithium carbonate production saw a slight month-on-month decline, with February's supply contraction exceeding market expectations, as domestic production was reported at 88,300 tons, down 8.2% [2] - The supply contraction is characterized by both proactive maintenance and passive bottlenecks, with significant reductions in production from Sichuan and Jiangxi due to seasonal maintenance and environmental review delays [2] - The recovery progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is severely lagging, impacting supply flexibility for the first half of 2026, while Australian lithium projects are also not meeting recovery expectations [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - Despite the seasonal downturn, the demand for lithium remains robust, driven by improved export tax rebate policies for lithium batteries, leading to a notable "not-so-dull" demand characteristic [6] - February production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 383,200 tons, down 5.48% month-on-month, while ternary cathode materials are projected to decline by 14.05% to 73,300 tons, indicating varying demand across material segments [6] - Market expectations for future demand are optimistic, with significant developments in energy storage policies and a push for battery exports ahead of tax changes, which are expected to boost lithium carbonate consumption [10] Group 3: Inventory and Market Structure - Lithium carbonate social inventory continues to decline, reaching 105,000 tons, a 26% reduction from the July 2025 peak, with a notable shift in inventory structure indicating reduced pressure from production to consumption [11] - The current inventory levels show a significant decrease in stocks at smelters and traders, while downstream material manufacturers have increased their inventories due to pre-holiday stockpiling [11] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the balance sheet for February and March may shift from expected inventory reduction to slight accumulation due to concentrated shipments from Chile, with uncertain purchasing rhythms post-holiday [12] - Mid-term expectations suggest that downstream production may recover to high levels in March, with potential price increases in April and May, supported by low inventory levels and ongoing policy benefits [12][13] - The equilibrium in supply and demand is likely to remain intact until the Jiangxi mine resumes production, with continued upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices anticipated [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti -内卷 driving force in the soda ash and glass markets is weakening, and the fundamentals are gradually taking the lead. The market trends are mainly oscillating weakly [14][23]. - For soda ash, supply is increasing, demand is stable, and the inventory is in an accumulating trend. The spot price is falling to narrow the basis. It is expected that the futures price will show a weakly oscillating trend next week [14]. - For glass, the daily production is stable, but due to the release of spot goods in the market, the inventory is increasing, and the demand growth is limited. The spot price is weak, and it is expected that the futures price will also show a weakly oscillating trend [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash production was 74.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 tons (6.4%). The daily production was 10.5 - 10.7 tons. The supply increased due to the capacity enhancement of some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua and Henan Junhua. It is expected that the weekly production next week will be over 75 tons. The large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, but the maintenance premium and scale are limited [7]. - The theoretical profit of soda ash in China's joint - alkali method (double - ton) was 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was 56.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The coal price is rising, and the cost is increasing, while the spot price of soda ash is falling slightly [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 67.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1%. The demand for heavy soda ash was 37.9 tons (a 9.5% decrease), and that for light soda ash was 29.7 tons (a 15.3% decrease). After a two - month upward trend, both the intermediate and downstream inventories are relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness is not strong [10]. - The futures price first rose and then fell this week, and the spot goods in the market increased, causing the spot price to fall [10]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 186.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory increased by 2.5 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory increased by 4.5 tons. In terms of regions, except for Central and South China where the sales rate exceeded 100%, the inventory in Northwest China increased by 6 tons [13]. - Intermediate: The intermediate inventory showed an increasing trend, with the social inventory increasing by 16.4% to 44.9 tons, and the growth rate of social inventory slowed down. There were 3310 warehouse receipts [13]. - Downstream: For the soda ash inventory of float glass enterprises, in some sample factories, the inventory days decreased, while the inventory days including the goods to be delivered increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.1.4 Market Performance and Strategy - The market performance of soda ash was oscillating. With the weakening of the anti -内卷 driving force, the market showed differentiation. Considering the fundamentals, the supply increased, the demand was stable, and the inventory was accumulating. The spot price was falling. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is expected to show a weak trend, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances; for arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily production of float glass was 15.96 tons, remaining stable week - on - week, with 223 production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 150.36 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; that using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.63 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton [17]. - As the futures price fell, the social inventory was released, while some downstream enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. The supply was sufficient, the upstream inventory was accumulating, and enterprises reduced prices [17]. 3.2.2 Demand - After a two - month upward trend, both the intermediate and downstream inventories were relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness was not strong. The deep - processing orders did not improve significantly. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The deep - processing profit was still low [20]. 3.2.3 Market Performance and Strategy - This week, the glass market showed a downward trend. As the futures price fell, the spot goods in the market were released, negatively affecting the spot market. The inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.95% week - on - week. The enterprise profit decreased slightly, and the supply side was not yet in the cold - repair loss area [23]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is expected to show a weak trend, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances; for arbitrage, go long glass and short soda ash; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [23].

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]