7月18日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业理性参与竞争。随后，在各大媒体呼吁良性竞争，厂商、平台、消费 者多方共赢的导向下，"外卖大战"战火暂熄，但为拉新人、抢新盘的外卖争夺战，仍然在各大平台间继续上演。 炎炎夏日似火烧，外卖量激增与天气因素密不可分，同时，与消费群体的迭代以及消费习惯的改变亦是紧密相连。 餐酒不分家，外卖模式影响几何？ 酒业历来有餐酒不分家、餐饮共同体之说。餐饮场所与酒类销售、消费场景的深度结合，可谓是内卷环境下酒业消费突破的关键点。 与"618"大促相距不到一个月，7月，饿了么、美团、京东三家平台燃起外卖大战的战火。为了抢占新用户，外卖平台撒钱补贴，奶茶"0元购 "，消费者直 呼喝不完，奶茶店员直呼"摇到断腕"，骑手直呼送不完······ 外卖数量的激增，是否会对餐酒融合的场景造成影响？ 外卖送餐、喝着奶茶追着剧，俨然成为年轻人的度夏标配，在外卖大战拉新人、抢新盘的声势影响下，酒水消费会有影响吗？ 北京正一堂战略咨询机构咨询总监张胜军直言，年轻人热衷外卖，其实是一种社交逃避的表象；酒作为情感沟通的工具，外卖热度越高，年轻人社交越 少，白酒消费场景越少，销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between Meituan and Alibaba in the food delivery market is characterized by mutual distrust and aggressive strategies, with both companies continuously adjusting their tactics to outmaneuver each other [2][4][14] Group 1: Competitive Strategies - Meituan's strategy involves launching large-scale promotions and discounts to counter Alibaba's initiatives, resulting in a significant increase in order volume, reaching 1.5 billion orders in a single day [4][6] - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale aims to maintain a steady order volume of 80 million, focusing on building operational capacity before aggressively increasing order targets [5][10] - The overall market order volume has doubled from an average of 1 billion orders per day to approximately 2.5 billion, with Meituan capturing the majority of the increase [6][8] Group 2: Financial Investments - Both Meituan and Alibaba plan to invest a combined total of 500 billion yuan in the food delivery and retail market over the next few months, translating to over 5 billion yuan in daily subsidies [12] - The competition is expected to intensify as companies leverage their financial resources to attract consumers and increase market penetration [13][14] Group 3: Operational Performance - Meituan's delivery performance improved, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes for 1.5 billion orders, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] - Taobao Flash Sale reported a 96% on-time delivery rate for its 80 million orders, maintaining performance despite increased order volume [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has shifted, with Meituan aggressively pursuing market share while Alibaba adopts a more cautious approach, focusing on stability and gradual growth [8][10] - The influx of subsidies and promotional activities has led to a significant increase in user engagement, with Meituan's app usage rising to 240 million users, up from an average of 170 million [14]

Core Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs focuses on the competitive landscape and growth prospects in China's food delivery and instant retail sectors, highlighting the intensifying rivalry between eCommerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, and local service leader Meituan [1][5][11] - The eCommerce platforms aim to capture a significant share of the Rmb1.5 trillion instant retail market and leverage high-frequency food delivery services, projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion by 2030, to cross-sell other products [1][6][11] - The report outlines three competitive scenarios for food delivery market share among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics based on investment strategies [1][12][29] Competitive Landscape - The competition has escalated, with an estimated Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) invested by Alibaba, JD, and Meituan in the June quarter alone, leading to significant losses for each player [11][12] - Meituan currently leads the food delivery market with approximately 90 million daily orders, while Alibaba's Ele.me and Taobao Instant Commerce have reached a peak of 60 million daily orders [34][35] - JD is stabilizing its daily order volumes at 20-25 million by enhancing its delivery capabilities and expanding its workforce of full-time riders [34][35] Market Projections - The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% for food delivery and 18% for instant retail from 2024 to 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and new user acquisitions [1][36] - The total addressable market (TAM) for food delivery is projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, with various consumption scenarios identified [1][36][37] - The introduction of centralized kitchens is expected to enhance food delivery penetration by improving consumer confidence in food safety and reducing delivery costs [37] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is focusing on its core business by closing down less profitable segments and launching 1,200 centralized kitchens to streamline operations [1][12][19] - Alibaba has announced a Rmb50 billion investment to support merchants and users, aiming to boost its market share in the instant retail space [11][12] - JD is exploring new models for food delivery and leveraging its logistics network to enhance service offerings [20][34] Financial Implications - The report anticipates significant profit declines across transaction platforms in 2025, with JD and Alibaba expected to incur substantial losses in their food delivery segments [16][20] - Long-term, the reallocation of marketing spend from user acquisition to food delivery subsidies could improve gross merchandise volume (GMV) profit margins for both Alibaba and JD [16][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to normalize over time, potentially leading to modest profits or breakeven for Alibaba and JD's food delivery businesses by 2027 [16][20]