扫码查看原文 印度国债:2025年外资净购缩量 12月 现大规模散离 【2025年外国投资者连续三年净买入印度国债,净 购规模大幅缩水】 <>2025年1月1日起,外国投资者 连续第三年成为印度国债净买入方。不过,和前一 年相比,净购规模大幅减少,部分月份还有资金外 流。<>外资银行交易员透露,4-5月美国关税相关 声明引发担忧,形成重大利空,致使大量资金外 流。 <>此后,市场有一定规模资金回流。但12月又 现大规模资金撤离,因投资者觉得印度央行降息周 期结束,2026年印度国债收益率下行空间有限。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【2025年外国投资者连续三年净买入印度国债，净购规模大幅缩水】2025年1月1日起，外国投资者连续 第三年成为印度国债净买入方。不过，和前一年相比，净购规模大幅减少，部分月份还有资金外流。 外资银行交易员透露，4 - 5月美国关税相关声明引发担忧，形成重大利空，致使大量资金外流。 此 后，市场有一定规模资金回流。但12月又现大规模资金撤离，因投资者觉得印度央行降息周期结束， 2026年印度国债收益率下行空间有限。 本文 ...

随着卢比走弱以及市场认为印度央行的降息周期接近尾声，情绪承压，符合纳入全球指数条件的印度主 权债券正面临创纪录的月度资金外流。根据印度清算公司（Clearing Corporation of India）的数据，全球 资金在12月迄今已卖出1430亿卢比（约合16亿美元）的印度国债。这是自2020年推出"完全可进入路 线"（Fully Accessible Route，允许部分政府债券不设外资投资限制）以来，规模最大的一次资金流出。 渣打 银行表示，未来几个月外流可能仍将持续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant volatility in the Asia-Pacific market, particularly in government bonds and foreign exchange, with the Indian rupee hitting a record low against the US dollar and widespread declines in bond markets across several countries [1][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Market Movements - The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 88.49 against the US dollar, with concerns that it could breach the 90 mark [1][4]. - Other currencies, including the euro, pound, Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Korean won, and Indonesian rupiah, also experienced declines [1]. - The Thai central bank announced measures to address the volatility of the Thai baht and monitor its exchange rate closely [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - Japanese government bonds saw significant declines, contributing to a broader sell-off in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, with the Nikkei index dropping by 1.89% [6]. - In Malaysia, short-term government bond yields surged, indicating a sharp drop in bond prices [3][4]. - South Korean government bonds also experienced declines, with many showing a drop of over 1% [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan indicated a hawkish stance, suggesting potential future interest rate hikes, which could impact inflation and economic growth [6]. - Analysts warn that Japan's position as a major creditor could lead to market disruptions if it sells off US Treasury bonds to support the yen [7]. - The potential for a significant appreciation of the yen in 2024 could trigger global market volatility, particularly if capital flows reverse [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the shift from passive accumulation to a more strategic and diversified approach in response to changing global economic conditions and U.S. policy actions [1][12][27]. Group 1: Historical Context of China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 marked the beginning of its rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, primarily through exports to the U.S. [3] - By 2010, China's exports to the U.S. surged to $283.3 billion, up from $69.9 billion in 2002, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - The influx of U.S. dollars led to a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, surpassing $4 trillion by 2013 [3][8] Group 2: The Appeal of U.S. Treasuries - During the 2000s, U.S. Treasuries were seen as the only viable safe asset for China, given the limited options in the global market [8][10] - The U.S. economy maintained a dominant position, with GDP accounting for over 25% of the global total and the dollar representing over 60% of global trade settlements [8] - The liquidity and government backing of U.S. Treasuries made them an attractive option for China, allowing for quick conversion to dollars when needed [9][10] Group 3: Changing Perceptions and Strategies - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" has been challenged, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, raising concerns about the political implications of holding U.S. debt [12][14] - As a result, global central banks began to diversify their reserves, with countries like India and Brazil reducing their dollar holdings [14][15] - China's response has been to gradually reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion from 2022 to 2025, while maintaining market stability [17][19] Group 4: Diversification of Reserves - China is adopting a strategy of "gradual reduction and multi-faceted replacement," focusing on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves [19] - The share of gold in China's reserves increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2025, as gold is viewed as a safe asset free from credit risk [19][21] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a long-term alternative, with significant increases in renminbi settlements in trade with Russia and ASEAN countries [22][24] Group 5: Implications for Global Financial Order - The shift in China's strategy reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. dollar hegemony, as the U.S. actions have eroded the core appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27] - China's diversification efforts signal a transition from merely adapting to the dollar system to actively shaping a new global financial order [27]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated significantly, marking the most intense confrontation in 50 years, with military actions and retaliations intensifying between the two nuclear-armed nations [1][2]. Group 1: Military Actions - On May 10, Pakistan launched a military operation named "Copper Wall" in retaliation for India's provocations [2][11]. - Pakistan's military claims to have destroyed 77 Indian drones since the initiation of India's "Red Sand" operation [9]. - Pakistan's air force conducted airstrikes on multiple Indian airbases, including live broadcasts of missile launches [12]. Group 2: Financial Market Impact - Following the escalation, the Indian financial market experienced panic, with the SENSEX index dropping by 1.1% as of May 9 [2]. - Foreign banks sold a record amount of Indian government bonds, with net sales reaching 106.3 billion rupees (approximately 9 billion yuan) on May 8 [4][5]. Group 3: Casualties and Damage - The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with reports indicating 33 deaths and 62 injuries on the Pakistani side due to Indian actions [8]. - An Indian government official was reported dead, and two staff members were injured during the attacks [14]. Group 4: International Reactions - The G7 foreign ministers issued a statement condemning the recent attacks and urged both nations to exercise maximum restraint, emphasizing the threat to regional stability [18]. - China's foreign ministry called for calm and restraint from both India and Pakistan in response to the escalating situation [18].

Group 1 - Foreign banks sold a record 106.3 billion rupees (approximately 1.2 billion USD) of Indian government bonds in a single day, marking the highest daily sell-off since records began in 2006 [1] - Despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expecting interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of India as a "relatively safe" emerging market asset is being challenged by escalating border tensions [1] - Domestic banks in India continue to buy bonds, primarily for client accounts or their own trading books, indicating no significant outflow of dollars despite foreign selling [8] Group 2 - The Indian stock and bond markets have experienced declines for two consecutive days due to geopolitical tensions, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield rebounding approximately 9 basis points after a nearly 30 basis point drop since February [2] - The RBI is expected to intervene to control market volatility, as past border conflicts have typically had a short-term impact on the Indian market [8] - The RBI is prepared to use foreign exchange reserves to maintain currency stability amid escalating tensions between India and Pakistan [8]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign banks have sold a record amount of Indian government bonds, driven by investor concerns over the ongoing border conflict between India and Pakistan, which has negatively impacted market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Foreign banks net sold 106.3 billion rupees (approximately 1.2 billion USD) of Indian government bonds, marking the highest level of sell-off since data collection began in 2006 [1] - The ongoing hostilities with Pakistan have raised fears about potential escalations, affecting investor confidence in the Indian market [1] - Indian stocks and bonds have declined for the second consecutive day, indicating a broader market reaction to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond has increased by approximately 9 basis points over the past two days, reflecting rising borrowing costs amid market uncertainty [1] - The Indian rupee experienced its largest intraday decline since 2022 on Thursday, although it rebounded slightly by approximately 0.3% on Friday [1] Group 3: Central Bank Expectations - Despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may lower interest rates to provide some relief to investors, the current geopolitical situation is overshadowing these potential monetary policy adjustments [1]