对于金银，特别是黄金，应更多地从资产配置的角度来理解。它是在投资组合中应对极端不确定性 的"压舱石"。可以考虑在组合中维持一个基础比例，但不宜因短期暴涨而盲目追高。 其次，是金融体系潜在的"冰"。这里的冰，指的是市场对美联储独立性的信任基础可能出现的裂痕。美 国司法部对美联储的调查，让市场担忧央行决策是否会受到政治干扰。这种对传统信用基石的不安，直 接转化为对黄金、白银这类非信用资产的追捧。黄金价格历史性地站上了4600美元，白银更是飙涨。特 别是白银，它既有金融属性，又有光伏等工业需求支撑，涨起来格外凶猛。金银的逻辑，核心是货币信 用的对冲与重塑。 最后，我们看铜。它今天上演了冲高回落的戏码，一度逼近历史高点，但又冷静下来。这种回调，部分 原因是大型商品指数调仓带来的技术性卖压。但我们要看本质：分析师普遍认为，其供应偏紧、需求预 期强劲的基本面并未改变。铜价的逻辑，短期看资金和情绪，长期则牢牢绑定在全球能源转型和制造业 复苏的坚实需求上。 那么，面对这三种截然不同的逻辑，我们中长线投资者该如何应对呢？帮主的策略思考是：要区分对 待，抓住核心。 对于油价，可以关注事件的发展，但要明白地缘风险驱动的上涨波动巨大 ...

然而，英国制造业复苏基础仍显脆弱。调查称，去年12月制造业增长部分依赖库存增加和积压订单清 理，而非终端需求的持续改善，反映出2025年末英国经济增长动力不足的现状。 中新社伦敦1月2日电 (记者欧阳开宇)标普全球2日公布的调查数据显示，英国2025年12月制造业采购经 理人指数(PMI)升至50.6，较当年11月的50.2小幅回升，创下15个月以来最高水平，且连续两个月处于50 荣枯线以上的扩张区间，显示该国制造业复苏态势持续。 数据显示，去年12月英国制造业产出连续第三个月增长，新订单量小幅回升，出口和招聘指标也结束此 前疲软态势呈现企稳迹象。 路透社分析称，这一积极变化得益于一些短期利好：英国财政大臣里夫斯2025年11月底公布的预算案推 迟了大部分增税措施，未对企业大幅加税，缓解了市场不确定性；此前因网络攻击陷入停产的捷豹路虎 英国工厂全面恢复运营，为制造业增长带来助力。 标普全球市场情报公司总监罗布·多布森表示，英国央行去年12月的降息举措有望进一步提振需求，但 2026年初将是关键观察期，需关注短期刺激因素消退后，制造业增长能否转向依赖需求驱动的可持续模 式。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Williamson警告称，如果需求不能尽快改善，当前的工厂生产水平显然难以持续，企业可能被迫削减产 能，进而对就业产生不利影响，薪资和用工数据也可能随之承压。这一判断令市场对未来几个月制造业 和劳动力市场的前景保持谨慎。 作为衡量制造业景气度的重要先行指标，PMI一直受到交易员和投资者的高度关注。采购经理通常能较 早掌握企业经营状况，因此该指标常被视为整体经济走势的风向标。一般而言，PMI高于预期被视为利 好美元，低于预期则被解读为利空。本次数据与预期完全一致，对美元的影响整体偏中性。 标普全球周五公布的数据显示，美国12月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)终值为51.8，与此前初值及市场 一致预期持平，但较11月的52.2有所回落。这一读数仍高于50的荣枯线，表明制造业活动继续扩张，但 扩张力度降至过去五个月来的最低水平，显示出制造业复苏动能正在放缓。 从分项指标来看，12月制造业生产虽仍保持增长，增速较前一个月明显放慢；与此同时，新订单出现了 一年来的首次萎缩，反映出需求端开始显现疲态。标普全球指出，这一变化部分与关税因素有关，关税 持续推高企业运营成本，使制造业企业面临更大的经营压力。尽管如此，投入品价格 ...

盐和铝——电解铝行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 当前全球制造业复苏对铝需求有何影响？ 摘要 中国电解铝产能受双碳政策限制，叠加电力紧张和技术工艺限制，铝供 给端长期偏紧，支撑铝价维持高位。 全球制造业 PMI 持续高于 50，表明制造业复苏，欧美及新兴工业化国 家对铝需求增长，预计未来几年工业金属需求稳步提升，支撑铝价上涨。 地缘政治风险和自然环境不确定性增加，战略资源储备需求上升，矿产 投资趋于保守，各国对出口战略资源控制更严，加剧供给端不确定性， 支撑包括铝在内的有色金属价格。 降息周期通常推动工业金属价格上涨，全球库存水平较低，降息将激发 补库意愿，美国联邦利率波动与铝价同步，预计降息将推动铝价走强。 铝行业板块经过负债修复，分红率稳步提升，股息率平均达到 5%，高 于银行保险板块，吸引长期资金配置。 北美地区能源供应紧张，AI 发展加剧电力短缺，可能导致美国和加拿大 电解铝行业进一步减产，影响全球供需平衡。 废铝回收进展缓慢，公平竞争条例实施后废铝补贴减少，废铝产量难以 大幅上升，国内外供给仍将维持紧平衡状态。 Q&A 明年及后年铝市场的整体逻辑和预期是什么？ 明年（2026 年）及后 ...

新华财经北京12月31日电美国供应管理协会（ISM）于12月30日公布的数据显示，12月芝加哥采购经理 人指数（Chicago PMI）升至43.5，较11月的36.3大幅回升，亦高于市场普遍预期的39.8。 作为全国制造业走势的重要区域性先行指标，芝加哥PMI的回升被部分市场人士视为前期深度下滑后的 技术性修复。数据显示，新订单与生产分项有所改善，但整体需求基础依然薄弱，企业对未来订单前景 保持谨慎态度。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当前反弹尚未构成趋势性反转。鉴于指数仍处于明显萎缩区间，制造业是否真正触底仍有待进一步数据 验证。历史上，芝加哥PMI的波动常领先于全国ISM制造业指数，因此其走势备受政策制定者与投资者 关注。 尽管反弹幅度显著，该指数仍远低于50的荣枯分界线，表明美国中西部制造业活动继续处于收缩状态。 若芝加哥PMI能在接下来数月持续回升并趋近50，或有助于缓解市场对美国制造业陷入深度放缓的忧 虑。然而，在高利率环境持续、企业资本支出意愿低迷的背景下，制造业全面复苏的节奏预计仍将缓慢 且充满不确定性。 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strength in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - High-volatility sectors such as telecommunications, AI in the ChiNext, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1] Investment Trends - Incremental capital is flowing into the market, with the CSI A500 ETF leading in turnover, totaling 45.291 billion yuan among the top five ETFs, and the overall A500 ETF turnover reaching 52.575 billion yuan, more than three times that of the CSI 300 ETF [1] - There is a noticeable increase in net subscriptions for several core broad-based products, indicating a concentrated allocation of funds towards core A-share assets after a market correction [1] Economic Outlook - The current market sentiment is moderately positive, with a marginal recovery in risk appetite [1] - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Makoto Nakada, warned against premature interest rate hikes, advocating for fiscal and growth policies to elevate neutral interest rates, which is interpreted as a constraint on the pace of central bank rate hikes and positively impacts market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - The prevailing market themes include technology (AI industry chain), anti-involution, and external demand-driven manufacturing recovery [2] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization, as evidenced by Oracle's revenue and cloud business falling short of expectations, contributes to market volatility [2] - Despite the promising trends in AI, concerns about stock price divergence from fundamentals exist, suggesting a focus on tangible asset expansion opportunities, particularly in the power-related non-ferrous sector [2] Real Estate and Inflation - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with housing prices declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive for two consecutive months, influenced by gold prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] Debt Market - The bond market saw a slight rebound, although the weak performance in the fourth quarter was more pronounced than expected [2] - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, are approaching post-tax mortgage rates, indicating a gradual recovery in their investment value [2] - The 10-year government bond remains a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting its robust characteristics [2]

Core Insights - The company has introduced innovative practices and applications in industrial intelligence, showcasing the latest explorations of AI industrial software empowering manufacturing sites [1] - The company has achieved rapid revenue and profit growth, benefiting from recovering downstream demand and an increasingly complete product range [2] - The company is expected to continue its revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by ongoing product development and market opportunities [3] Group 1: Innovation and Technology - The company has developed the Huari Zhijia industrial software system, enabling intelligent monitoring, precise control, and data closed-loop optimization in the cutting process [1] - The system integrates multi-modal sensor fusion, AI algorithm modeling, and cloud analysis, enhancing machine tools' real-time perception, intelligent decision-making, and adaptive regulation capabilities [1] - The company has established a cutting test laboratory equipped with advanced processing and testing equipment to improve R&D efficiency [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 771 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137 million yuan, up 78.37% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 915.62% [2] - The rapid revenue growth is attributed to recovering downstream demand, improved product performance, and steady channel expansion [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.031 billion yuan, 1.284 billion yuan, and 1.509 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 182 million yuan, 249 million yuan, and 341 million yuan [3] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the same period are 39.11, 28.51, and 20.83 times, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the manufacturing industry and the restructuring of the supply chain [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Zhongjin Gold has shown significant growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and effective operational management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Zhongjin Gold achieved operating revenue of 53.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.23% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.679 billion yuan, up 39.18% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 4.214 billion yuan, reflecting a 60.92% increase [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.76 yuan, an increase of 38.18% [1] - The weighted average return on equity was 12.86%, up 2.93 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Total assets amounted to 63.459 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 14.06% compared to the end of the previous year [1] - Shareholders' equity was 29.196 billion yuan, an increase of about 6.58% from the previous year [1] Production and Market Conditions - In the first three quarters, Zhongjin Gold produced 13.75 tons of mined gold, 27.87 tons of refined gold, 50,000 tons of mined copper, and 304,300 tons of electrolytic copper [2] - The company attributed its performance growth to capitalizing on rising product prices and effective operational organization [2] Industry Outlook - The global non-ferrous metals market remains robust, with gold prices surpassing 4,000 USD per ounce, marking a historical high [2] - The economic recovery and monetary policy shifts in major economies are expected to support metal prices [2] - The anticipated easing of the Federal Reserve's interest rates is likely to enhance liquidity, boosting demand for gold and copper [2] - Increased recovery momentum in domestic manufacturing and sustained growth in fixed asset investment are expected to further drive non-ferrous metal consumption [2] - Zhongjin Gold is positioned to leverage its operational strengths to continue releasing performance potential amid favorable industry conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals, particularly gold, is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth driven by macroeconomic factors and liquidity support [1] Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals theme index has outperformed the second-best communication industry index by over 20% this year, indicating strong performance [1] - Key drivers for the strength in non-ferrous metals include macro liquidity issues, particularly the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting phase, supply-demand mismatches, and a recovery in manufacturing [1] - Global economic recovery is expected to increase demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc due to infrastructure projects and domestic consumption upgrades [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The upward trend in gold prices began last year and is expected to continue for the next two to three years, primarily due to the weakening of the US dollar's credit rather than just interest rate cuts [1] - The current rise in gold prices reflects heightened risk aversion and confidence issues, with central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remaining significant long-term themes [1] Group 3: Copper's Role - Copper is described as the "king of commodities" and is essential for industrial applications, with its resource not being significantly overvalued [2] - The narrative surrounding non-ferrous metals is largely driven by copper, which is expected to attract market attention and investment due to increased consumption [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently reasonably undervalued and attractive to foreign investors. The technology sector remains the most promising and certain area in the long - run, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking volume and a continued decrease in selling pressure. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,618 points, up 12 points or 0.26%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,019 points, up 17 points or 0.59%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,231 points, down 62 points or - 0.86%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,401 points, down 81 points or - 1.09%. Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, communication equipment ETF, energy ETF, bank ETF, and dividend state - owned enterprise ETF led the gains, while rare earth ETF, steel ETF, and robot 50ETF led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, coal mining, insurance, national banks, coke processing, and oil and gas extraction indices led the gains, while rare metals, forestry, metal new materials, precious metals, and wind power equipment indices led the losses. The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 50 index stock index futures was 1.5 billion yuan. [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of the end of September, China's M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month. The balance of narrow - sense money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, indicating accelerated monetary activity. - An investment fund AIP jointly established by BlackRock, NVIDIA, and Microsoft announced a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned, a data center giant under Macquarie Asset Management, one of the largest data center transactions in history. - The demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, exceeding expectations by 39%. TSMC's CEO said that AI demand remains strong and will be robust throughout 2025. - Morgan Stanley pointed out that high - quality electric vehicles have become the industry standard, and the real innovation opportunities in the automotive industry lie in the breakthrough of the AI ecosystem, proposing the "3A" opportunities of autonomous driving, AI embodiment, and AI data centers. - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist said that although the valuation of the technology sector has risen, it has not reached the level of a historical bubble. The current rise of technology stocks is mainly driven by fundamental growth. - As of October 14, the total scale of gold - themed ETFs, including commodity - type and stock - type, was close to 210 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan of funds this year. Since October 9, the net inflow of gold - themed ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that the employment level generally remained stable, but most regions reported that more employers were reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in AI. - Options trading linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showed that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its meeting later this month or in December. - The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) was suddenly used for $6.75 billion, the highest non - quarter - end level since the pandemic, exposing a rapid market funding gap and raising concerns about the next liquidity crisis. [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. On October 10, the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs totaled 31.488 billion yuan, second only to April 7 and 8 this year. On October 13, over 20 billion yuan of funds entered the market, and the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs was 24.614 billion yuan. Many securities firms said that despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, which is attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against US dollar asset risks. [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were narrowly fluctuating, and the growth indices were adjusting, with the market in a defensive mode. The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October, and the market is betting on a 50 - basis - point cut in December. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. In the future, the technology sector remains the most promising and certain area, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. The market is in a defensive state, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. - Stock index option trading: Seize the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 300 index. [3]