证券研究报告 三全食品 (002216 CH) 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 14.75 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 25 日) | 11.76 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 10,339 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 67.27 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 9.08-13.63 | | BVPS (人民币) | 5.06 | 股价走势图 资料来源：Wind (14) (2) 11 23 35 Aug-24 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 (%) 三全食品 沪深300 经营预测指标与估值 Q2 需求平淡，期待后续表现 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 8 月 26 日│中国内地 食品 | 目标价(人民币): | 14.75 | | --- | --- | | 吕若晨 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570525050002 | lvruochen@htsc.com | | SFC No. BEE828 | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | | 王可欣 | 研究员 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, reflecting the challenges faced in the retail segment while acknowledging steady growth in manufacturing [2][10]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen's manufacturing business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 2.798 billion, while retail revenue fell by 8.6% to USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The company is focusing on prudent inventory and discount management to balance profitability and channel health, with inventory turnover days at 146 days [4][12]. - The management has emphasized a refined retail strategy and diversification of channels, particularly enhancing online sales which grew by 16% year-on-year [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, total revenue was USD 4.06 billion, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue at USD 2.798 billion and retail revenue at USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The average selling price for footwear increased by 3.2% to USD 20.61 per pair, benefiting from a premium order mix [2][10]. Retail Strategy - Pou Sheng International's omni-channel revenue grew significantly, driven by online sales, which doubled due to live-streaming initiatives [3][11]. - The company plans to maintain its offline store count between 3,300 and 3,500 while focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency [3][11]. Inventory and Cost Management - The management is implementing measures such as production cuts and clearance sales to control inventory levels, with nearly 9% of inventory being aged [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for manufacturing decreased to 17.7%, impacted by rising labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [2][10]. Capacity Expansion and Tariff Strategy - The company is optimizing its capacity layout and expanding production in Indonesia and India to mitigate tariff impacts, with a projected capital expenditure of around USD 300 million for factory construction [5][13].

Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is facing challenges with a decline in revenue and profit, with 20 listed dairy companies reporting a total revenue of 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.92 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The aging population in China is creating new growth opportunities in the dairy sector, with the number of people aged 60 and above surpassing 300 million by the end of 2024, and expected to reach 26.4% of the population by 2030 [6][5] - Dairy companies are focusing on functional, differentiated, and scenario-based products to regain consumer interest amid cross-category competition [4][10] Group 2: Strategic Approaches - Companies are advised to address both functional needs and emotional connections with elderly consumers, emphasizing the importance of product functionality and emotional value [7][8] - Major players like Yili and China Feihe are expanding their product lines to cater to the elderly demographic, with Yili's adult nutrition products for seniors accounting for 50% of its adult milk powder business [9] Group 3: Channel Evolution - The sales influence of large supermarkets is declining, while the importance of small and community supermarkets and convenience stores is increasing, with convenience stores meeting immediate consumer needs [14][17] - E-commerce is becoming a significant channel for dairy sales, with Yili reporting that over 50% of its adult milk powder sales are now through online platforms [17][18] - Companies like Mengniu are focusing on market penetration in rural and underdeveloped areas, highlighting the potential for growth in these segments [19]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for 2024, but net profit declined sharply, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 48.77% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.292 billion yuan, up 35.08% year-on-year, but a net loss of 15 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1]. Integration and Channel Diversification - The integration of Tongtuo Technology began to show results, contributing 1.313 billion yuan in revenue from July to December 2024, with a net loss of 11 million yuan, significantly improved from a loss of 99.92 million yuan in 2023 [2]. - The company is actively expanding into popular e-commerce channels, with Temu generating over 352 million yuan, TikTok over 188 million yuan, and Walmart over 381 million yuan, reducing reliance on Amazon, whose revenue share dropped from 74.81% to 64.03% [2]. Profitability Challenges - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 33.86%, down 3.10 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 1.89%, down 3.21 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further declined to 31.48%, a decrease of 4.97 percentage points, with a net profit margin of -0.66%, down 5.49 percentage points [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to an active inventory clearance plan, with asset impairment losses of 74 million yuan in 2024 and 22 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing significant year-on-year increases [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term profitability pressures, the company is expected to maintain growth momentum through its focus on new platforms like Temu and TikTok, and the integration of Tongtuo Technology [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.294 billion yuan, 13.507 billion yuan, and 15.873 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 25.18%, 19.60%, and 17.51% [4]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 286 million yuan, 406 million yuan, and 563 million yuan, with growth rates of 67.92%, 42.03%, and 38.64% respectively [4].