Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the market is expected to continue consolidating with a long - term high - short strategy recommended. The supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and some have suspended the production line of delivery products. The demand side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprises' self - discipline quotas lowered, and cell enterprises having production reduction plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment. Policy factors also reduce the demand for polysilicon, and overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic and trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 34,255 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton; the 07 - 08 contract spread is 1,305 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 60,199 lots, with a daily decrease of 2,509 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 26,695 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 2,545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding polysilicon are 29 yuan/kg, 31.5 yuan/kg, and 32.5 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 7,560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 145 yuan/ton; the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 58.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 units, a decrease of 11,583,800 units; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 units, an increase of 10,274,320 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of June 10, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower, N - type dense, N - type re - feeding, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are 31 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, 37.5 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 34.5 yuan/kg respectively, all temporarily stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [2] Key Focus - There is no news today. Since June 1, newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market, which reduces the rate of return and suppresses polysilicon demand. The macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also lead to uncertainty in overseas demand, further suppressing demand growth [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both the futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the bottom of silicon prices is difficult to determine. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, it is advisable to short on rebounds due to the weak fundamentals and the difficulty of an upward trend in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 0.61% to 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price increased by 2.97% to 7,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed, and the downstream had insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type polysilicon materials remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price increased by 2.02% to 35,055 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and some plants might have new production capacity put into operation. The output was expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor changes in the supply side [1]. Other Information - A monomer enterprise in North China started a 15 - day maintenance, which was expected to affect the DMC output by about 4,000 tons [1]. - Bangjie Co., Ltd. decided to continue the suspension of its battery cell production line to avoid expanding losses [1]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the construction industry at 51.0% and the service industry at 50.2%. Some industries were in a high - prosperity range, while others were below the critical point [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is generally stable currently, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads. The expectation of new capacity launch is increasing, and most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, with production enthusiasm frustrated and some even suspending the delivery product production line [3]. - The demand side is relatively weak. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, the price and production schedule of N - type silicon wafers have declined, and battery manufacturers also have production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and the procurement enthusiasm is low [3]. - Starting from June 1st, newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market, which reduces the rate of return and suppresses demand. The demand is expected to enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The unstable macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also lead to uncertainty in overseas photovoltaic market demand, further inhibiting the growth of polysilicon demand [3]. - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon purchased by silicon wafer enterprises previously has not been fully digested, which suppresses the market price. The short - term operation suggestion is to consider short - term long positions, while the medium - and long - term strategy is mainly short [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 35,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 79,868 lots, a decrease of 932 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 month contracts of polysilicon is 2,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The basis of polysilicon is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 405 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 7,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [3]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 units, a decrease of 11,583,800 units; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 units, an increase of 10,274,320 units; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/unit, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/unit [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.29, a decrease of 0.62 [3]. Industry News - As of May 27th, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 31 yuan/kg, N - type dense material is 35 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material is 37.5 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon is 35 yuan/kg, and N - type polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, all of which are stable [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82%, mainly due to cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. The basis weakened, and it is expected that price will be supported after inventory decline. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news, but its fundamentals remain poor [5]. - Looking ahead, for industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts still exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices fell by 2.82% this week, with cost reduction during the wet season and weak downstream demand. Polysilicon prices rose by 0.32%, with a small increase at the end of Friday due to rumors and news [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply has a cost advantage during the wet season, but the willingness to resume production in the southwest is low. Downstream demand is weak, and overall demand is declining. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts pressure on the market. For polysilicon, supply is operating at a reduced load, demand is weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7,500 - 9,000, with a stop - loss range of 7,300 - 9,200. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short - term within 33,000 - 39,000, with a stop - loss range of 34,000 - 42,000 [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, industrial silicon futures and spot prices fell, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 8,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 735 yuan/ton. The operating rate remained stable, and production increased slightly but was still at a low level. As of May 23, 2025, the overall operating rate was 17.81%, and production was 72,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week [11][13][22]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, polysilicon futures prices fell significantly, and the basis weakened. As of May 23, 2025, the spot price was 33.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 3,510 yuan/g [15][19]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Raw Materials**: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and the market price has fallen below the production cost of most manufacturers. Southwest regions have no intention to resume production due to losses [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 65,298 lots, a decrease of 1,233 lots from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [32]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rate continued to decline, and prices were low. As of May 23, 2025, weekly production was 39,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59.31%, a decrease of 0.26%. Spot costs and profits remained flat, and production cuts to support prices had initial results [35][40][46]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices remained flat, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand. As of May 23, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of May 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 15,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons [48][53]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer prices fell, battery cell prices remained low and flat. After the end of the rush - installation period, polysilicon demand was dragged down. As of May 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.12 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.27 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [55][60]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon production remained flat, and industrial silicon prices fell, resulting in a weakening of production costs. In April 2025, the polysilicon production volume was 98,800 tons [62][67].