Mundada指出，推动这一趋势的关键因素包括：市场预期美联储2026年继续降息、地缘局势不稳、以及 去美元化进程加速——尤其是在全球央行不断调整储备结构、降低对美元资产依赖的背景下。 自10月触及历史高点以来，比特币与加密资产整体出现明显回落，而黄金、白银以及美股却在年末阶段 加速上行，市场呈现罕见的"分裂行情"。截至目前，比特币价格约在90,000美元附近徘徊，较10月约 126,000美元的历史峰值回落明显；与此同时，贵金属价格强势攀升，黄金和白银今年分别上涨约20% 和64%。 分析人士指出，贵金属强势并非单纯的避险情绪推动，更可能是机构与资金对全球货币体系与地缘风险 变化的"战略性反应"。 GlobalData经济研究与企业研究主管Ramnivas Mundada在评论中表示，2025年贵金属的上涨标志着国际 货币体系出现深层结构性转变——全球正在从以美元为核心的框架，向更具多极化特征的秩序演进。他 预计，2026年黄金仍可能进一步上涨8%至15%，白银则可能上涨20%至35%。 总体来看，当前市场呈现出"金银与股票走强、加密资产回落"的显著分化格局。贵金属的强势不仅体现 避险需求，更反映资金对去美 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：中金点睛 Abstract 摘要 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布 雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体 系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权滥用下出现 裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元资产的安全 性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人们很自然地把目光重新投 向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 黄金能否替代美元，重新成为国际货币体系运转的中心？我们认为过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意 味着旧制度卷土重来，而是新世界裂变的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础 开始动摇，多极货币体系的雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球经济政治格局已经改变， 金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我们已不可能再回到那 ...

该行提到，然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权 滥用下出现裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元 资产的安全性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人们很自然地把 目光重新投向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布 雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体 系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意味着旧制度卷土重来，而是 新世界裂变的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础开始动摇，多极货币体系的 雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球经济政治格局已经改变，金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我 们已不可能再回到那个由稀缺金属决定货币秩序的时代。黄金在多极化格局中仍可充当储值与避险资 产，但它无法替代信用货币在利率调节、流动性供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is facing significant challenges, with a potential shift towards a multipolar currency system becoming increasingly likely [1][9][10] Group 1: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The US dollar has maintained its status since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, supported by the US's strong industrial and military power [1] - The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and subsequent exclusion from the SWIFT system have catalyzed a shift in global financial dynamics [1][3] - Countries in the Global South are actively resisting US financial hegemony, seeking to reclaim economic sovereignty [1][3] Group 2: Emergence of Alternative Currencies - West African nations are proposing a shared new African currency, symbolizing a commitment to decolonization and financial independence [3] - The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is discussing the long-delayed "Eco" currency, indicating a move towards establishing financial autonomy [3] - The rise of pan-Africanism reflects a collective awakening in economic consciousness, with calls for a common currency representing dignity and future direction [3] Group 3: European Response to US Financial Policies - European countries are seeking ways to counteract the US's financial weaponization, with Italy and Germany recalling gold reserves from the US [3][5] - The potential for France and the Netherlands to follow suit could signify a decline in US dominance in European currency asset custody [5] - The US's significant fiscal deficit, exceeding $36 trillion, raises concerns about its long-term financial stability and the sustainability of the dollar's reserve status [5][7] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The current global economic structure is asymmetrical, with the US benefiting from the dollar's reserve status while other countries face inflation pressures due to dollar overproduction [5][7] - The reliance on military spending funded by dollar printing exacerbates economic instability, particularly for developing nations whose currencies are often pegged to the dollar [7] - The transition towards a multipolar currency system is not a collapse of the dollar but a transformation, with countries increasingly questioning the financial rules set by Washington [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future may see a multipolar currency system where regions rely on local or joint currencies, such as the potential African "Eco" currency and the Chinese yuan [9] - The US faces a critical choice between reforming its financial practices and clinging to outdated privileges, which could lead to a loss of global influence [10] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the moral authority of the US are diminishing, prompting a shift towards greater independence and diversity in global financial systems [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining trust in the US-led international financial order and the increasing trend of countries bypassing the US dollar in favor of their own currencies for bilateral trade, indicating a shift towards a "multipolar currency world" [1][2][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Dominance and Challenges - The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for over 80 years, allowing the US to finance its deficits by printing more dollars, creating an asymmetry where trade partners must earn dollars through exports or debt [1]. - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar's privileged status [1]. - The financial system based on the dollar is viewed as unjust and unstable, with other countries effectively lending to the US at zero interest rates while facing inflation pressures from dollar issuance [1][2]. Group 2: Global Reactions and Movements - Countries are increasingly questioning the rules that favor the US and are seeking to reclaim monetary sovereignty, with a focus on creating a multipolar currency system [2][5]. - BRICS nations are at the forefront of the de-dollarization movement, with economies now surpassing the G7 in purchasing power parity, and countries like India and Russia trading oil in their own currencies [4]. - In Africa, there is a push to abandon the CFA franc, which is linked to the euro and controlled by France, with leaders advocating for monetary sovereignty and economic independence [4]. Group 3: Erosion of Trust Among Allies - Even close European allies of the US are showing signs of distrust, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the unpredictability of US policies under recent administrations [5]. - The article notes that the dollar still accounts for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves and is involved in nearly 90% of currency exchanges, but this dominance relies on trust, which is eroding [5]. - The potential shift towards a new multipolar currency system is framed as a necessary rebalancing rather than a threat to global stability [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests a high possibility of a shift towards a multipolar currency system, indicating that the international monetary landscape is likely to evolve away from the dollar's dominance, which may lead to the appreciation of Chinese assets and a long-term bullish trend in commodities [3][4][5] - The report highlights that the current systemic cracks in the dollar's cycle are primarily due to the obstruction of excess profit repatriation, which may drive global capital flows into a new configuration [5][4] - It emphasizes that the dollar's hegemonic status is unsustainable, and the establishment of a multipolar currency system is a crucial pathway to mitigate the crisis within the dollar system [4][5] Group 2 - The report discusses the historical context of the gold standard's collapse, noting that the inherent contradiction between limited gold supply and global credit expansion led to a depletion of credit derivation capacity [5][6] - It outlines the lessons learned from the Great Depression, particularly the impact of monetary policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which triggered a debt-deflation spiral [26][39] - The analysis indicates that the transition from a gold-backed currency to a more flexible monetary system is essential for economic recovery and stability [5][6] Group 3 - The report projects that under the current conditions, commodities are expected to experience a long-term bullish trend, driven by the anticipated depreciation of the dollar and the expansion of the renminbi [5][4] - It also notes that the systemic crisis of the dollar necessitates a downward revaluation of dollar assets over the long term, which could further enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][4] - The report suggests that the global economic landscape is shifting, with the potential for increased capital flows towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5][4]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum among various countries, particularly in Asia, driven by factors such as trade agreements and increased investment in alternative assets like gold and digital currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Indicators of De-dollarization - A recent study by Forex Complex identified three main indicators of de-dollarization: the decreasing share of the dollar in national reserves, the increasing share of gold, and the growing use of alternative currencies in bilateral trade [3]. - Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Japan are leading the efforts in de-dollarization, indicating a systematic shift away from reliance on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Regional Developments - ASEAN has established an agreement prioritizing local currency transactions to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes and trade restrictions [3]. - Indonesia has reported that approximately 15% of its trade with China and Japan is conducted using alternative currencies, including the use of the Indonesian rupiah for transactions with Japan [3]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar has become particularly pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic, as many Asian countries seek to lessen their reliance on a dollar-denominated financial system [5]. - The rise of the Chinese yuan is notable, with China establishing closer ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries through yuan-denominated trade [5]. Group 4: Current Currency Shares - As of March, the yuan accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the dollar's 49%, but its growth potential is considerable given China's economic size and growth prospects [5].

Group 1 - The complexity of current international politics exceeds traditional diplomatic frameworks, as highlighted by Romano Prodi during his speech at Peking University [1] - Prodi emphasizes that the essence of the US "reciprocal tariffs" policy is that of a "rule breaker," undermining the multilateral trade system established by the WTO [4][6] - The US GDP shrank in the first quarter of 2025, indicating adverse effects from tariff policies, which Prodi argues do not resolve trade deficits but harm the domestic economy [4] Group 2 - Prodi suggests that the current crisis stems from "political interference in economic laws," leading to the marginalization of global regulatory frameworks [6] - He advocates for the construction of "bridge rules" to enhance cooperation between China and Europe, emphasizing the need for open communication despite challenges [6] - The potential for deeper cooperation between China and Europe is significant, as both regions account for 34% of global GDP combined [6] Group 3 - Prodi praises China's consumption-boosting policies, stating they will positively impact global supply and demand dynamics [7] - He highlights China's critical role in global supply chains, noting that many products, including his own glasses, are manufactured in China, reflecting a shift in trade preferences towards China over the past two decades [9] Group 4 - Prodi reflects on the long-term consistency of Chinese policies, which contrasts with the unpredictability seen in many Western nations [10] - He emphasizes the importance of cultural exchange as a means of fostering understanding and cooperation, advocating for more Chinese students to study in Europe [12]

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The global financial system is undergoing profound changes since the establishment of the Bretton Woods system in 1944, transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar governance model [3] - The dominance of the US dollar is being challenged by unilateral US policies, prompting a need for reform in international institutions to reflect the economic weight of emerging markets [3][4] - The internationalization of the Chinese yuan is progressing, but full convertibility will require more time [3][4] Group 2: Institutional Reform - The reduction of US funding to multilateral institutions is pushing organizations like the World Bank to adopt mixed financing models to address infrastructure gaps in developing countries [4] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has successfully implemented 132 projects across 47 countries, with 38% involving private sector investment [4] - Suggestions for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) include expanding the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket to enhance representation and developing a super-sovereign currency based on SDR [4] Group 3: Regional Practices - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has led to a 90% zero-tariff ratio on goods traded among member countries, solidifying Asia's role in the global supply chain [6] - AIIB is collaborating with ASEAN to establish a $10 billion green infrastructure fund, focusing on cross-border electricity and low-carbon technology transfer [6] - The introduction of digital currencies, such as China's digital yuan, is being tested in ASEAN countries, creating a "digital currency corridor" that may support a future multi-currency system [6]