1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On December 31, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline significantly. The closing price of the main platinum contract on GFEX was 589.85 yuan/gram, a 13% drop, and the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, also a 13% drop. The approaching New Year's holiday led to weak market sentiment and capital outflows, causing the sharp decline [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. The supply - demand situation of palladium shows that although it is loose in the long - term, the short - term spot shortage and favorable macro - environment suggest that the palladium price will also fluctuate with an upward trend. However, due to the sharp price fluctuations in the short - term and the approaching holiday, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main platinum contract on GFEX closed at 589.85 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: After the price correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 31, the domestic closing time of the main platinum contract on GFEX had a premium of 35.16 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included), still higher than the import cost, so there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity and the price difference is expected to converge in the future. But due to issues like hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. In terms of supply, South Africa, the major producer of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2]. Palladium - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main palladium contract on GFEX closed at 447.45 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary supply shortage in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate - cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price [3]. - **Outlook**: The price of palladium is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [3]. Commodity Index (December 30, 2025) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial product index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 30, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2675.54. The daily increase was - 0.03%, the increase in the past 5 days was + 1.47%, the increase in the past month was + 6.49%, and the increase from the beginning of the year to the present was + 15.91% [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On December 29, platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit down at the end of the session. The closing price of the GFEX platinum主力 contract was 634.35 yuan/gram, a 10% decline, and that of the palladium主力 contract was 494.1 yuan/gram, also a 10% decline [2]. - Due to pre - holiday sentiment weakening and capital profit - taking, platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected, and continued vigilance against large - scale price fluctuations is required [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - **Main Logic**: After the correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 29, the GFEX platinum主力 contract had a premium of 39.13 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) at the domestic closing time, still higher than the import cost, indicating an arbitrage opportunity and a tendency for the price difference to converge in the future. However, due to issues such as hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with relatively stable demand in the automotive catalyst sector, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, price fluctuations have intensified. It is advisable to trade cautiously during the holiday period, or take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is a key factor affecting the supply of palladium. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is expected to ease, the short - term shortage of spot goods keeps the price firm, and with the Fed re - entering the interest rate - cut cycle, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [4]. - **Outlook**: With the short - term shortage of spot and a favorable macro environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate upward. However, in the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading and wait for the price to correct to an appropriate level. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [4]. Commodity Indexes (December 29, 2025) - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The comprehensive index was 2339.89, a 0.59% decline; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, a 0.42% decline; the industrial products index was 2258.87, a 0.70% decline [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On December 29, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Platinum**: The report suggests that the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. It recommends paying attention to opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - **Palladium**: In the short - term, palladium prices are likely to be strong due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment. However, in the long - term, it is subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Platinum - **Price Performance**: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 527.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment provides support as the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has slightly increased. The supply is tightening, and there is a significant price difference between domestic and foreign markets, presenting an arbitrage opportunity. South Africa, the main supply country, faces power and weather risks. Demand is expanding in various fields, and the "rate cut + soft landing" scenario will increase price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand situation and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. Investment opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets are recommended [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 455.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 6.99% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The key supply disruption is the Russian geopolitical issue. The US investigation into Russian palladium imports has led to a temporary supply shortage. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term shortages and a Fed rate - cut cycle support the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Given the spot shortage and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price has strong bottom support. In the short - term, low - cost buying is recommended, while in the long - term, it will be subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. Commodity Indexes - **Characteristic Indexes**: On December 17, 2025, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2590.35, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI commodity index was 1358.64, up 0.52% [47]. - **Sector Indexes**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, was 2551.16, with a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [48].