以下文章来源于21世纪商业评论 ，作者覃毅 谭璐 21世纪商业评论 . 《21世纪商业评论》敏感于一切商业新知、商业产品、商业模式和商业英雄，敏感于新公司的新玩意、 老公司的新改造、旧话题的新表达、老商业的新颠覆，为您提供最新鲜实用的商业养分。 本文转载自21世纪商业评论 值班编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 顾芗 科技大佬李东生，43.59亿融资到手。 8月19日，TCL科技披露定增股票上市公告，宣告融资计划顺利收官。 这是李氏用于收购深圳华星半导体少数股权的配套资金，增发计划一经发布，即备受追捧，吸引了43家 海内外机构踊跃申购，总认购金额高达157.27亿元。 李东生掌舵的这摊面板生意，正处于上升周期。 | 31世纪商业评论 | | --- | | 项目 | 2025年1月1日-2025年6月30日 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 收入:826 亿元-906亿元 | 收入:802.24亿元 | | | 比上年同期增长:3%-13% | | | 归属于上市公司股 | 盈利:18亿元-20亿元 | 盈利:9.95 亿元 | | 东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:81%-10 ...

Group 1: Market Position and Growth - By 2024, Chinese companies will control 65% of global polarizer production capacity, expected to exceed 80% by 2027 [1] - In 2025, China's display panel production will account for 70% of the global market share, meaning 7 out of every 10 display panels produced worldwide will come from China [2] - The market size of China's display panel industry will reach 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, capturing over 50% of the global market [3] Group 2: Key Players and Performance - BOE Technology Group leads the smartphone panel market with a projected shipment of 610 million units in 2025, holding a 68.8% market share in 2024 [2] - In the large-size LCD TV panel market, BOE holds a 25.9% market share, while Huaxing Optoelectronics and Huike occupy 20.2% and 14.4% respectively [2] - In 2024, BOE's revenue is expected to be 198.38 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.32 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [7] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The introduction of 15 AMOLED production lines is challenging the dominance of South Korean manufacturers, with flexible screens and MiniLED technology driving a new display revolution [3] - Chinese companies are adopting a dual-track strategy, focusing on both LCD and OLED technologies to maintain market leadership [6] - The OLED gaming monitor segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a 132% increase in global shipments in 2024 [8] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Opportunities - The global automotive display panel market is projected to reach 232 million units in 2024, with a 6.3% year-on-year growth [8] - BOE holds a 17.6% market share in the automotive display sector, collaborating with various automotive brands [9] - The esports monitor market in China is expected to grow by 12.4% in 2025, driven by increasing consumer demand and the introduction of new products [12] Group 5: Strategic Developments - The acquisition of LG Chem's OLED polarizer business by Shanshan Holdings is a significant move towards vertical integration in the industry [4] - The construction of the world's first 3000mm ultra-wide polarizer production line by Hengmei Optoelectronics is set to enhance production capacity significantly [5] - The dual strategy of focusing on both LCD and OLED technologies has allowed Chinese manufacturers to effectively compete in the global market [6][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the panel business continues to improve, and there are expectations for a recovery in the photovoltaic business [5] - In 2024, TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 29.4% [4][5] - The semiconductor display business has shown significant improvement, with a revenue of 104.3 billion yuan in 2024, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 62.4 billion yuan [5] - The photovoltaic segment, TCL Zhonghuan, reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 52%, with a net profit of -9.82 billion yuan [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 40.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, up 322% [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, TCL Technology's operating cash flow was 29.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 6.52 billion, 10.02 billion, and 13.20 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.35, 0.53, and 0.70 yuan [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 196.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.9% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 15.9% by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the panel business continues to improve, and there are expectations for a recovery in the photovoltaic business [5] - In 2024, TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 29.4% [4][5] - The semiconductor display business has shown significant improvement, with a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan in 2024, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 62.4% [5] - The photovoltaic segment, TCL Zhonghuan, faced challenges with a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, down 52%, and a net profit of -9.82 billion yuan [5] - In Q1 2025, TCL Technology achieved a revenue of 40.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, up 322% [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.52 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.35 yuan, and a P/E ratio of 11.95 [7][9] - The report forecasts revenue growth for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 196.1 billion yuan in 2025, 211.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 227.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 18.9%, 7.6%, and 7.8% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 15.9% by 2027 [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 2.9% in 2024 to 20.3% in 2027 [9]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, TCL achieved a revenue of 164.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, and a net operating cash flow of 29.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [1] - In Q1 2025, TCL reported a revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a 0.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 322% [4] - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 reached 12.1 billion yuan, up 83% year-on-year [4] Group 2: Semiconductor Display Business - In 2024, the semiconductor display segment generated 104.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 25% increase, with a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, improving by 62.4% [2] - In Q1 2025, the semiconductor display business achieved 27.5 billion yuan in revenue, an 18% increase, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, reflecting a 329% growth [4] - The average size of televisions increased by approximately 1.5 inches in Q1 2025, driving demand for larger panels [4][6] Group 3: New Energy and Semiconductor Materials - In 2024, the global photovoltaic installation maintained growth, but prices continued to decline, leading to losses across the industry [2] - TCL Zhonghuan reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, a 52% decrease, with a net profit of -9.82 billion yuan [3] - In Q1 2025, TCL Zhonghuan's revenue was 6.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of -1.906 billion yuan, showing a 49% improvement compared to the previous quarter [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Outlook - The display industry is expected to see a stable supply-demand relationship, with the global LCD production capacity in mainland China projected to reach 88% by 2025 [6] - The demand for large-size panels is driven by both terminal sales and average size increases, with significant growth potential in the global market [6] - The "trade-in" policy is expected to boost demand across various product categories, including televisions, enhancing the trend towards larger screens [8] Group 5: OLED Business Development - TCL is focusing on high-end and differentiated strategies in the OLED market, with significant improvements in market share for flexible OLED panels [10] - The T4 production line is expected to maintain high operational efficiency, contributing to the overall improvement of the OLED business [10] Group 6: Depreciation Trends - Most of the 8th generation production lines have completed depreciation, but a slight increase in depreciation is expected in 2025 due to new capacity coming online [11] - The depreciation-to-revenue ratio is anticipated to decrease as new high-value production lines drive rapid revenue growth [11]