| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 17245 145 | 90 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 40 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | 13870 -95 | 105 0 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3375 | -15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 170621 | -3594 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 31588 | -6492 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -41368 | -1375 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9340 | 524 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 115070 | 600 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50601 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 16950 2060 | 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) ...

【银河期货】天然橡胶及 20 号胶每日早盘观察（26-03-02） RU、NR 日报 天然橡胶及 20 号胶：轮胎环比去库 【市场情况】 RU 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16990 点，下跌-165 点或-0.96%。 截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 16850-16900 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 17000- 17100 元/吨，泰国烟片报收 19500-19800 元/吨，产地标二报收 14550-14650 元/ 吨。 NR 20 号胶相关：NR 主力 05 合约报收 13735 点，下跌-125 点或-0.90%； 新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 198.9 点，下跌-1.5 点或-0.75%。截至前日 18 时， 烟片胶船货报收 2460 美元/吨，泰标近港船货报收 2055-2070 美元/吨，泰混近港 船货报收 2055-2070 美元/吨，马标近港船货报收 2045-2060 美元/吨，人民币混 合胶现货报收 15840-15860 元/吨。 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 05 合约报收 12780 点，上涨+115 点或 +0.91%。截至前日 18 时， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the low - production period, with a shrinking total supply [2]. - Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With pre - holiday concentrated arrivals of overseas shipments, the total inbound volume continues to increase, while downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - Spring Festival stockpiling. Market purchases are mainly for刚需, and the outbound volume from warehouses continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate as downstream enterprises gradually go on holiday [2]. - Last week, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises entered the holiday state, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the short - term production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,600, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 90; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 151,944 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,674; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 48,541 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 128 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,635, with a month - on - month increase of 927; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,125, with a month - on - month decrease of 318. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,803 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,045 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65 [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,557 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 327 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46 [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 62.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 58.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74 [2]. - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 60 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1 [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 17.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.85, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and an increase rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, with an increase rate of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, with an increase rate of 2.78% [2]. - As of February 4, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and the total supply is shrinking. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a slight destocking trend, with the bonded warehouse destocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with the semi - steel tire's capacity utilization increasing slightly and the full - steel tire's decreasing slightly. It is expected that the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will run weakly and steadily. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 15,850 - 16,500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are 176,097 hands and 49,072 hands respectively, down 5,119 hands and 5,134 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are - 44,112 and - 9,365 respectively, down 631 and 341 respectively. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 110,470 tons and 55,843 tons respectively, up 600 tons and 504 tons respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,945 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 355 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,080 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 465 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.62%, down 2.9 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.56%, up 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.8 days, up 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 48.53 days, up 0.61 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.63%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.92%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.92%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2]

表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 605 | 15. 670 | -65 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 15, 640 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 217, 811 | 260. 240 | -42, 429 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 168.775 | 175.574 | -6, 799 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 100. 590 | 97, 290 | +3, 300 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 41, 079 | 40. 075 | +1,004 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -355 | -420 | +65 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -905 | -970 | +65 | | | 月差 | RU05-RU09 | 60 | 45 | +15 | | | 外盘报价 | RSS3 (美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "going long" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely. Driven by macro - level and fundamental factors in the natural rubber market, rubber prices continued to rise. However, due to the impact of typhoons and heavy rainfall in overseas and domestic production areas, raw material supply was restricted, and processing plants' eagerness to purchase raw materials at higher prices strengthened cost - side support [6]. - Currently, raw material prices have strong support, mid - stream inventories are continuously decreasing, downstream demand remains stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. In the short term, rubber prices may maintain a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan and Hainan increased. In Thailand, although the northeast had normal supply growth, the south faced supply constraints due to heavy rainfall, and raw material prices rose. In Vietnam, raw material supply was tight due to excessive rainfall, and prices were firm [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will fluctuate slightly in the next period, and some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance in November [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU on the SHFE decreased, while that of 20 - number rubber increased [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. After the holiday, the spread between RU and mixed rubber widened, and the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR also widened [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex narrowed, while the loss of the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk latex improved [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Neutral. The suspension of relevant Sino - US tariff policies has reduced previous negative disturbances, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, rubber prices continued to rise. As of October 31, the RU main contract closed at 15,085 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton (-1.63%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,230 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 275 yuan/ton (-2.20%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [9]. - **Position**: RU positions were low, and NR positions decreased. The spread between RU and NR widened [17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting raw material supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to September, China imported 4.7172 million tons of natural rubber (+19.65%). In September, the import volume increased significantly, and Thailand was the largest source country [86][92][99]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to decline. As of October 26, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.0389 million tons, a decline of 1% [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the next period [109][117]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventories in Shandong decreased slightly [118]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, China exported 7.28 million tons of rubber tires (+5%) [137][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk latex was in a loss state [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [168].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas supply arriving at the port has decreased, while downstream tire companies have a positive purchasing sentiment, leading to better-than-expected warehouse shipments. [2] - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased. However, this week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may slightly decline due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 139,114 lots, an increase of 6,184 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58,896 lots, an increase of 1,690 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,299 lots, an increase of 232 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,345 lots, a decrease of 1,124 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 177,290 tons, a decrease of 470 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,352 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 935 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,058 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 268 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.75 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 58.33 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.73 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.01%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.69%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.78%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 24th to 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 24th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. [2] - As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the ru2601 contract is to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,200, and for the nr2510 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000. As maintenance - affected enterprises resume operations, there is still a small upward space for production capacity utilization, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprises' production control will continue, which will limit the increase in overall production capacity utilization [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 1,035 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 133,455 lots, down 1,052 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 58,494 lots, up 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,125 lots, down 1,030 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,931 lots, down 477 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 179,590 tons, down 340 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 920 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,918 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 268 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 63.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.81%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.88%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.19%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.19%, up 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 17th to August 23rd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decrease of 0.87%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to experience weak consolidation in the short term. The supply from the main producing areas is increasing, leading to a continuous decline in raw material prices and a weakening of cost support. Terminal demand is weak, with low operating rates, providing limited support for rubber prices. Additionally, after the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment, the market's bearish sentiment is rising [82][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - ANRPC's June 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in June will decrease by 1.5% to 1191000 tons, while consumption will increase by 0.7% to 1271000 tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production is expected to decline by 1.1% to 6076000 tons, and cumulative consumption will increase by 1% to 7715000 tons. In 2025, global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14892000 tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15565000 tons. The natural rubber price showed a bearish trend in June due to improved supply in major producing areas, rising port inventories, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57044000 pieces. Except for the motorcycle and scooter tire segments, the sales volume of various tire categories was lower than that in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2257000 tons, and exports to China increased by 35% year - on - year to 1423000 tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets experienced significant pullbacks. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared to the previous period [10][11]. Price Differences - The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. For example, on August 1, 2025, the price difference of RU09 - NR09 was 2135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74% [23][24]. - This week, the import rubber market's offer prices declined. The price differences between imported rubber and RU showed different trends. For example, the price difference between Thai mixed rubber and RU was - 260 yuan/ton on August 1, 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 46.39% [26][27]. - The price difference between whole - milk and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber was 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200% [32][33]. - The price differences between synthetic rubber and RU narrowed. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between butadiene rubber and RU was - 2710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.94% [35][36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly. On August 1, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 4.75, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.01% [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - In the Thai production area, the temperature and rainfall in the southern part increased significantly. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared to the same period [42][44]. - Due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the prices of rubber futures and spot goods declined, and raw material prices also followed suit. However, due to more rainfall in Yunnan recently, raw material prices remained relatively firm. On August 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 47.4 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.20% [47][48]. - The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber increased, and the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory first increased and then decreased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 6.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 24.53% [55][56]. - As the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products, the overall processing profit decreased. On August 1, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 111 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 202.78% [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [62][63]. Demand - During the cycle, some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the month, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 59.26% and 69.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4.77% and 0.11% [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. On July 25, 2025, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 804900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17% [73][75]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange showed different trends. On August 1, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 177600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41% [78][79]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is weak consolidation. The supply in the producing areas continues to increase, raw material prices are falling, and cost support is weakening. Terminal demand is weak, and the operating rate is low, providing limited support for rubber prices. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short - term. The supply from the producing areas is increasing, raw material prices are falling, cost support is weakening, terminal demand is weak, and the market's bearish sentiment is rising [81][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 1.4892 billion tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 1.5565 billion tons. In June, production was expected to fall by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption to rise by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. The price showed a bearish trend due to supply improvement, rising port inventories, and trade tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces. Except for motorcycle and scooter tires, the sales of other types of tires were lower than those in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets had a significant correction. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared with the previous period [10][11]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. The spreads of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spreads of 3L - Thai mixed increased [21][30]. - The prices of substitute rubbers such as BR and SBR decreased, and the spreads between synthetic rubbers and RU narrowed [33]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature and rainfall in the southern region increased significantly. In China, the rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared with the same period in previous years [40][42]. - The prices of raw materials decreased. The prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets decreased, while the raw materials in Yunnan were still relatively firm due to more rainfall [44][45]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber widened, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories first rose and then fell [53]. - The overall processing profit decreased as the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products [57]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [61][62]. Demand - Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the cycle, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The finished product inventory decreased as the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated at the end of the month [65]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [69][70]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. There is a high possibility of inventory reduction in Qingdao next period, while there may still be a slight increase in inventory in Yunnan [72]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply from the main producing areas increased this week, and raw material prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support of rubber prices [82]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises were 69.98% and 59.26% respectively, showing a weak demand [82]. - View: It is expected that the rubber price will continue its weak consolidation in the short - term due to the increasing supply, falling raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment [82]. - Valuation: The basis between whole milk and RU main contract was stable, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract narrowed [82]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound and weak; the inter - period spread trading should shift from reverse arbitrage to positive arbitrage; for cross - variety trading, just observe for now [82].