4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 13 日 橡胶周报 系统性风险出现 橡胶弱势下行 核心观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]