Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 12, cup rubber is priced at 52.23 THB/kg (down 0.53), latex at 57.00 THB/kg (up 1.00), Hainan private rubber at 15,500 CNY/ton (up 500), Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,920 USD/ton (up 10), and Thai mixed rubber at 15,100 CNY/ton (up 50) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 63.78%, down 2.75 percentage points month-on-month and down 13.97 percentage points year-on-year. The full-steel tire capacity utilization rate is 55.50%, down 2.43 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.37 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days month-on-month and up 6.04 days year-on-year. For full-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 44.62 days, up 0.34 days month-on-month and down 1.52 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export Data and Market Trends - In the first eleven months of 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.458 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Exports to China amounted to 284,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 88% [2] - Overall, Indonesia's total natural rubber and mixed rubber exports reached 1.551 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports to China increasing by 119% [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Southeast Asia is expected to increase due to the high production period, but cooler temperatures in northeastern Thailand and international market restocking demand may keep overseas raw material prices high. Demand remains cautious post-holiday, with tire production expected to improve as companies resume operations [3] - The market is primarily focused on inventory digestion and replenishment, with short-term sales unlikely to see significant improvement. Overall social inventory remains sufficient, and replenishment remains cautious [3] Group 5: Price Expectations - It is anticipated that rubber prices will maintain a range-bound fluctuation between 15,500 and 16,500 CNY, supported by lower raw material prices but pressured by weak demand. Future attention will be on the production situation in Thailand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by macro factors and is expected to follow the overall trend of the energy - chemical sector. After the holiday, the weather in overseas main producing areas is expected to improve, increasing supply and weakening cost support. Although downstream enterprises plan for short - term maintenance during the holiday and the spot inventory is continuously accumulating, the return of funds after the holiday and the impact of the external market during the holiday may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a 0.6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, with a 24% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The implementation details of the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy were released, expanding the scope of support [5][7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared to the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price - Related - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 and the 05 - 09 calendar spread both increased, with a 26.04% and 100.00% increase respectively compared to the previous period [12]. - **Other Spreads**: Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased. The basis of non - standard rubber strengthened, and the spreads between whole milk - Thai mixed rubber and 3L - Thai mixed rubber expanded [17][20][23]. - **Substitute Prices**: The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, continued to rise, providing bottom support for the short - term market price [30]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared to the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [33][35]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weather**: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching the end, and the rainfall is decreasing. The rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [38][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Due to the缓解 of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices have fallen [42]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand has expanded, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole milk factories has remained stable [46]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices fall, the rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally improved [49]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profit in Hainan has decreased, and the data in Yunnan has stopped updating due to the suspension of tapping [53]. - **Exports**: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber. The exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - month due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China rebounded seasonally, with a large increase in standard rubber and latex exports. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased significantly [60][66][72]. - **Imports**: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 643,600 tons, a 25.98% increase month - on - month and a 14.76% increase year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. - **Demand** - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some tire enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and the tire inventory continued to accumulate last week [81]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with an accelerated growth rate. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - month growth rate continued to decline. Tire exports improved slightly month - on - month [84]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In November 2025, the freight turnover of road transport rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. - **Inventory** - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The increase in Qingdao's inventory slowed down compared to the previous period, mainly due to a 7.8% decrease in the warehousing volume of sample warehouses and some tire enterprises' procurement before the festival. The inventory in Yunnan continued to accumulate [94]. - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 100,600 tons, a 7.09% increase compared to the previous week, and the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 58,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous week [100]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of December 31, there was no data on raw material prices in Thailand due to the holiday. The price of Hainan glue for whole milk production was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the price for concentrated latex production was also 15,000 yuan/ton. As of December 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.201 million tons, a 1.7% increase compared to the previous period [104]. - **Demand**: During the "New Year's Day" holiday, some enterprises planned for short - term maintenance, and most enterprises maintained normal production, adjusting according to their own inventory and order situations [104]. - **View**: After the holiday, the supply in overseas main producing areas is expected to increase, weakening cost support. Although the downstream inventory is accumulating and enterprises are having maintenance, the return of funds and the external market impact may drive the rubber price to fluctuate slightly stronger. The recommended strategies are to wait and see for RU and look for short - selling opportunities when the price is high, and to observe for cross - period and cross - variety trading [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the domestic natural rubber futures market declined while the overseas market rose. Due to the improvement in weather in overseas main - producing areas after the holiday, the increase in supply will put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support may weaken. Although the spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate and some downstream enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday, after the holiday, funds will return to the market. Affected by the external market during the holiday, with limited self - contradiction driving, it is expected that the natural rubber price will follow the overall trend of the energy and chemical sector and fluctuate slightly stronger [9][102]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR remained stable at 2980 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU decreased by 65 yuan/ton. Investment strategies include waiting and seeing for RU in the unilateral aspect, waiting for opportunities to short at high prices; observing in the inter - period and cross - variety aspects [103]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [5]. - On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued the implementation rules for the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy, expanding the scope of support compared with 2025 [6]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared with the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU05 increased by 26.04% compared with the previous period, and the 05 - 09 calendar spread increased by 100.00% compared with the previous period [12]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased [16]. - This week, most rubber spot prices declined, and futures prices declined more, resulting in a stronger basis [20]. - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber widened [23]. Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene at the raw material end of butadiene rubber continued to rise, providing obvious bottom support for the short - term market price, and most spot offers maintained a firm price and tried to sell [29]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of RU and NR both decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared with the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [32][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather in Thai producing areas: The rainy season in southern Thailand is gradually coming to an end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - Weather in domestic producing areas: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan producing areas have basically ended [39]. - Raw material prices: Due to the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices declined. For example, the price of cup lump in the Hat Yai market in Songkhla Province, Thailand, decreased by 2.54% compared with the previous period [41][43]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between water and cup in Thailand widened, the spread between Hainan glue going into the concentrated latex factory and going into the whole milk factory was stable, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [45]. - Upstream processing profit: As raw material prices declined, the rubber processing profit in Thailand generally improved. For example, the production profit of Thai standard rubber increased by 18.53% compared with the previous period [48][50]. - Delivery profit: The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so the data update was suspended [53]. - Thai exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber [60]. - Thai exports to China: In November, the quantity of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with an increase in the exports of latex, smoked sheets, and standard rubber and a decrease in mixed rubber [63]. - Indonesian exports: In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to a large decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [66]. - Vietnamese exports: In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China increased seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex exports [72]. - Ivorian exports: In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the quantity of exports to China decreased significantly month - on - month [74]. - Rubber imports: In November, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Ivorian standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday, mostly for 3 - 5 days, and most enterprises maintain normal production. Tire inventory continued to accumulate last week (the current data has not been updated) [81]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with a higher growth rate, passenger car sales continued to grow but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline, and tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [84]. - Road transport turnover: In November, the road freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. Inventory - Spot inventory: The current natural rubber inventory in China continued to accumulate seasonally. Qingdao's inventory increased, and the increase rate of the increase in light - colored rubber inventory compared with the previous period weakened [94][96]. - Futures inventory: The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the 20 - rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai International Energy Exchange both increased to some extent. For example, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.09% compared with the previous week [99].

Core Insights - Hainan is a crucial natural rubber production base in China, facing significant challenges due to typhoons and climate anomalies affecting supply and prices [1][2] - The natural rubber industry in Hainan is experiencing structural contradictions, with competition from other crops and aging rubber trees impacting production [3] - Different companies are adopting varied strategies to navigate the challenging environment, with state-owned enterprises focusing on global resource allocation and technology innovation, while private firms are implementing defensive measures [4][5] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Typhoon "Mojia" caused substantial damage to rubber plantations in Hainan, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and rising prices [1] - The aging tree structure and adverse weather conditions have resulted in reduced rubber production, with local processing capacity facing fierce competition [2][3] - The economic benefits of alternative crops like betel nut and agarwood are leading to decreased willingness among farmers to harvest rubber, further exacerbating supply issues [3] Group 2: Company Strategies - A leading state-owned enterprise is focusing on global resource layout and technological innovation, including the promotion of smart tapping technology to reduce labor costs [4] - Private processing companies are adopting a defensive strategy by reducing production to control losses and seeking to import raw materials from lower-cost regions [5] - Some companies are extending their operations downstream to enhance product value and cope with high local raw material prices [5] Group 3: Future Trends - The natural rubber industry in China is expected to undergo a significant transformation, balancing strategic resource security with economic realities [6] - The planting area and raw material output in Hainan are projected to decline slowly, while processing capacity will undergo consolidation due to strict environmental regulations [6] - The industry is likely to evolve into a dual-circulation model, combining domestic resource security with overseas resource expansion [6]

Domestic Prices - The average price of concentrated latex in Hainan Province is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1.87% compared to last week [3] - The average price of all latex in Qingdao is 14,575 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from last week; the same price is observed in Tianjin [4] - The average price of all latex in Shanghai is 14,675 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from last week [4] - The average price of mixed rubber in Qingdao is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from last week [4] International Prices - The average price of Thai smoked sheets in the bonded zone and CIF is 2,130 USD/ton and 2,120 USD/ton, down 1.62% from last week [6] - The average price of Thai standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,815 USD/ton, with the bonded zone price up 1.09% and CIF down 1.11% from last week [6] - The average price of Indonesian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,745 USD/ton and 1,712.5 USD/ton, up 1.16% and 0.44% respectively from last week [9] - The average price of Malaysian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,800 USD/ton, up 1.09% and 0.84% respectively from last week [10] - The average price of Vietnamese 3L remains unchanged at 1,875 USD/ton [13] Futures Prices - The average price of all latex (RU) and 20 standard rubber (NR) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 15,342.5 yuan/ton and 12,390 yuan/ton, up 0.54% and 0.69% respectively from last week [14] - The average prices for the same products in 2024 are 18,746 yuan/ton and 14,351 yuan/ton, down 18.16% and 13.67% compared to the same period last year [14] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Singapore Exchange is 201.6 cents/kg, down 3.63% from last week; TSR20 futures average price is 172.7 cents/kg, up 0.7% from last week [17] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Japan Exchange is 311 yuan/kg, up 1.9% from last week [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]