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建信期货镍日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]
建信期货镍日报-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:08
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Market Performance: On the 17th, Shanghai nickel was under pressure at the 120,000 integer mark and operated weakly. The main contract 2508 closed down 0.6% at 119,880. The total index position increased by 4,627 to 155,945 lots. [9] - Spot Market: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the spot supply was sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton. [9] - Market Outlook: The support at the mine end in the front - end of the industrial chain has weakened. The overall bargaining range of nickel iron has moved down, and some nickel iron plants have cut production. The sulfuric acid nickel price may rise from a low level. Currently, all links in the nickel industrial chain are weak, and the macro - sentiment temporarily dominates the market. Wait for a lower price to go long. [9] Group 3: Industry News - Indonesia Nickel Industry: In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota in the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons. The industry is facing cost pressure due to policies and taxes. The APNI is working on ESG norms to enhance its international reputation. [10][11] - Bulgaria Battery Storage System: Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is a step towards its 10,000 MWh battery storage capacity target. [11] - Nickel - based Solar Cell: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high efficiency. [11] - UK Battery Storage Project: Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its net - zero and renewable energy goals. [11]
建信期货镍日报-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 03:13
Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: July 10, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's announcement of tariff implementation on August 1st has increased macro uncertainty, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. The weakening macro support has caused nickel prices to fall under the pressure of fundamental oversupply. The Shanghai nickel main contract fell below 120,000 yuan on the 9th, with a closing decline of 1.2%. The total index positions increased by 10,628 to 158,316 lots. Given the current weak performance of each link in the nickel industry chain, previous long positions should be closed, and a rolling operation strategy should be continued [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Macro uncertainty has increased, causing a decline in market risk appetite. The weakening macro support has led to a continuous decline in nickel prices under the pressure of fundamental oversupply. On the 9th, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell below 120,000 yuan, with a closing decline of 1.2%, and the total index positions increased by 10,628 to 158,316 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: During the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,100 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Side**: The decline in mine - end interference has weakened the support. The premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has declined, and there is a risk of subsequent ore price decline. The price of high - nickel ferro continues to fall, with an average price of 905 yuan/nickel point on the 9th. Nickel iron plants are facing increasing losses, and some have cut production [8]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for new energy batteries is in the off - season, and the support for nickel sulfate is limited. Although nickel sulfate has rebounded slightly to 27,420, some enterprises have cut production to support prices due to losses [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current weak performance of each link in the nickel industry chain, previous long positions should be closed, and a rolling operation strategy should be continued [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Bulgaria**: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This project is a step towards the country's goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [9]. - **Turkey**: A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver consumption is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency. This innovation is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11]. - **UK**: Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11].
建信期货镍日报-20250606
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:11
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel industry continues to face a supply-demand surplus, but the firm support from the Indonesian nickel ore end provides a bottom support for nickel prices. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 5th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly and weakened in the late session. The main contract 2507 closed at 121,570, down 0.43% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,523 to 165,179 lots [8]. - In the spot market, trading was relatively light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,450 yuan/ton, and the premium of Russian nickel was reported at 350 yuan/ton [8]. - Regarding nickel ore, the subsequent supplementary quotas of RKAB are expected to start the approval process in June and July of the second half of the year. The previous market rumor that a large number of RKAB quotas were approved in the past few weeks is not true. The supply shortage of nickel ore has not been alleviated [8]. - The cost of NPI remains high due to the firm nickel ore prices. Both Indonesia and China are generally facing losses, with high pressure on capacity clearance, and prices may be relatively firm [8]. - Nickel sulfate prices are slowly declining. On the 5th, the average price was reported at 27,815 yuan/ton. The weak ternary battery market has dragged down the demand for nickel [8]. - Stainless steel mills are in the red, with reduced production schedules and high inventories. The demand for nickel can only maintain the minimum requirement [8]. 3.2 Industry News - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to remain stable with a slight decline in the first half of June, with an estimated month-on-month decrease of 0.06%. The HMA in the first half of June is 15,405 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton [11]. - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [12]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), significantly reducing silver usage while maintaining high performance [12]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [12][13]
建信期货镍日报-20250528
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:45
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Nickel Price Movement: On the 27th, nickel prices continued to trade in a narrow range. The main contract 2506 hit a low of 122,000, a half - month low, and closed at 122,170, down 0.55%. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,419 to 176,178 lots [9] - Spot Premium: The spot premium remained generally stable. The Jinchuan premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, and the Russian nickel premium was 250 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel Ore: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore this week remained stable at $26 - 28 per wet ton. The decline of the new round of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore HPM was slight, and the current negotiation premium was still strong. It is expected that the price of Indonesian ore will be prone to rise and difficult to fall [9] - LME Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,362 tons on the 27th, with the main increase of 1,482 tons coming from the Busan warehouse. The increase in inventory put downward pressure on prices [9] - Battery - grade Nickel Sulfate: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,015 yuan. Next week is a traditional procurement node. With the expected improvement in market demand in June and cost support, nickel salt prices are expected to rise [9] - Overall Outlook: Recently, the prices of nickel - related products in the industrial chain have weakened slightly but with limited room. Nickel prices continued to consolidate. In addition, the subsequent supplementary quota of RKAB is expected to start the approval process in June, and there are still concerns. Wait for low - buying opportunities [9] Group 3: Industry News - Indonesian Domestic Trade Ore Benchmark Price: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore HPM to remain stable with a slight decline in the first half of June, down 0.06% from the previous period. The HMA in the first half of June is $15,405 per ton, down $10 per ton. The HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores are expected to decline slightly compared with the second half of May. SMM expects the premium in June to be difficult to rise and may remain stable at the May level [10][11] - Battery Energy Storage Projects: - Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, increasing its approved total energy storage capacity to over 1.6 GW [11][12] - Solar Cell Innovation: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contact with almost no silver (Ag), significantly reducing silver usage while maintaining high efficiency [11]