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华尔街日报:经济学家预测的美国经济衰退为何没有出现?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 13:56
Group 1 - Economists had predicted a recession in the past few years, but it has not materialized despite multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3][4][7] - The yield curve inversion has historically been a reliable recession indicator, with the longest inversion occurring from summer 2022 to summer 2023, yet no recession followed [5][6] - The ISM manufacturing activity index has been in contraction for 26 months, indicating potential economic weakness, but a recession has not yet occurred [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's strong monetary tools and near-zero interest rates have distorted the bond market, complicating recession predictions [7] - The U.S. federal budget deficit has reached levels typically seen only during severe recessions, raising questions about future government spending capacity in a real downturn [7]
加拿大央行:预计住宅投资和政府支出将上升。
news flash· 2025-07-30 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada anticipates an increase in residential investment and government spending [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada projects that residential investment will rise, indicating a positive outlook for the housing sector [1] - Government spending is also expected to increase, which may contribute to economic growth [1]
泰国央行副行长:政治的不确定性并未升高担忧,不应影响政府支出和贸易谈判。
news flash· 2025-07-02 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that concerns regarding political uncertainty have not increased and should not impact government spending and trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor emphasized that the current political landscape does not pose heightened risks to economic stability [1] - Government spending is expected to remain unaffected by political uncertainties, indicating a stable fiscal environment [1] - Trade negotiations are also anticipated to proceed without disruption, reflecting confidence in ongoing economic policies [1]
如何实现投资与消费的相互促进
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-22 20:32
Group 1 - The relationship between investment and consumption is interdependent, and both are essential for expanding total demand in the economy [2][3] - Government spending should focus on both investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, with current policies showing a structural bias towards investment [2][3] - The accumulation of material capital through investment is fundamental for economic growth, while consumption contributes to human capital, which is increasingly important in an innovation-driven economy [2][4] Group 2 - The debate over whether to prioritize investment or consumption is less productive than understanding their relationship within the overall economic cycle [3] - Government spending has become an integral part of daily economic cycles, and its effectiveness is hindered by issues such as mismatched flows and uncertainty in spending responsibilities [3][6] - A shift towards a human-centered logic in economic development is necessary, focusing on meeting people's needs through both investment and consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Urban-rural dualism restricts the mobility of farmers, impacting their access to equal public services and opportunities, which highlights the need for government investment and consumption to address these social identity issues [5][6] - Promoting social equity requires addressing inequalities in starting points and opportunities, with government policies aimed at facilitating migration and urbanization [7] - The central-local fiscal relationship is crucial for effective government investment and consumption, with local government spending being a significant component of overall fiscal policy [8][9] Group 4 - Current data shows that central government spending has increased by 9%, while local government spending has only grown by 3.9%, indicating insufficient expansion at the local level [9] - To implement more effective fiscal policies, reforms in the central-local fiscal relationship are essential, particularly in increasing the share of central government spending [9]
美国商务部长卢特尼克:这绝对不会花费政府一分钱。
news flash· 2025-04-29 16:01
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, emphasized that the initiative will not cost the government any money [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a commitment to fiscal responsibility in government spending [1]
美国财长称美股调整是健康的,不保证没有衰退,“如果有人在2006-07年踩刹车,就不会有08年的危机”
华尔街见闻· 2025-03-17 10:35
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary supports Trump's policies, stating that market adjustments are healthy and normal, and emphasizes the importance of sound tax policies, deregulation, and energy security for long-term market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently entered a technical correction, raising concerns among investors about the impact of Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration, and federal spending cuts [1]. - The Treasury Secretary reassures that the current market fluctuations are not indicative of a crisis but rather a transitional phase, asserting that a week is insufficient to alter market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Treasury Secretary acknowledges that there is "no guarantee" against a recession, highlighting the unpredictability of economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. - He emphasizes the need for the Trump administration to reduce excessive government spending and stimulate the private sector, indicating that small banks are ready to start lending [2]. Group 3: Government Spending and Policy - The current level of government spending is deemed unsustainable, and the transition from government to private sector spending will significantly impact the economy [3]. - The Trump administration is not expected to intervene in the market due to short-term declines, with a focus on maintaining policy direction regardless of market fluctuations [4].