21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》），对未来五年我国经济社会发展作出系统谋 划和战略部署。 "十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年。到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，一个重要的标志 性指标是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期经济发展保持适当速度。 《建议》明确提出，经济增长保持在合理区间、全要素生产率稳步提升、居民消费率明显提高、经济增 长潜力得到充分释放、高质量充分就业取得新进展、居民收入增长和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳 动生产率提高同步、分配结构得到优化、中等收入群体持续扩大、基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升等 重要目标。 （中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉，受访者供图） 经济增长更大挑战来自需求侧 《21世纪》：2035年要实现人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这要求"十五五"时期维持怎样的经济增 速？如何推动全要素生产率的提升？为何要强调提高居民消费率？ 蔡昉：党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议，是从供需两侧来部署的。提高全要素生产率是从 供给侧提出的要求，通过推 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of intuition and knowledge in the learning process, emphasizing that the conflict between the two presents valuable learning opportunities [1] - It discusses the significance of reading as a means to encounter profound thoughts and engage in self-reflection, ultimately leading to a clearer understanding of the world [1] - A curated book list for the fall of 2025 is presented, featuring ten selected titles across various fields such as economics, finance, and humanities, aimed at enhancing critical thinking [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the current decade is a pivotal turning point, with AI becoming central to the strategic competition between China and the U.S., framed by the concept of "technological revolution - institutional competition - order reconstruction" [2] - It mentions the shift from physical trading floors to algorithm-driven electronic trading systems, highlighting the historical significance of this transformation in trading practices [2] - The article introduces new works that explore the psychological aspects of money management and the impact of high-frequency trading on market efficiency [2] Group 3 - The book "Seeking a Path" by Zhou Qiren discusses the challenges faced by enterprises and individuals in a rapidly changing global landscape, providing insights into potential growth opportunities [4] - "Cities, Clusters, and Spatial Equilibrium" by Edward Glaeser presents a comprehensive overview of urban economics, addressing key concepts such as spatial equilibrium and the mechanisms of urban growth [6] - "AI Storm" by Liu Dian examines the intense competition between China and the U.S. over AI technologies, proposing a theory of "resilient power" to navigate beyond zero-sum games [8] Group 4 - "Speed Trading" by Donald MacKenzie chronicles the rise of high-frequency trading since the 1990s, analyzing its effects on market efficiency and the competitive landscape of trading [10] - "The Power of Critical Thinking" by Liang Yufeng et al. emphasizes the importance of critical thinking in value investing, addressing common misconceptions and providing practical investment guidance [12] - "The Danaher Model" by Yang Yi and Chen Chaowei dissects the success strategies of Danaher Group, focusing on its operational excellence and strategic acquisition capabilities [14] Group 5 - "The Art of Money" by Morgan Housel explores the relationship between money, human behavior, and happiness, offering insights into how this relationship influences decision-making [16] - "Breaking the Urban-Rural Dual Structure" by Cai Fang addresses the challenges of China's urban-rural divide, providing policy recommendations for integrated development [18] - "The Joy of 11th Century China" by Yu Wensuo analyzes the concept of happiness in Chinese thought and literature, particularly during the Song Dynasty [20]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significance of reading and the process of refining intuition through knowledge, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking in understanding complex ideas [1] - It highlights a curated book list for the autumn of 2025, focusing on titles that encourage readers to challenge their intuitions and deepen their understanding in various fields such as economics, finance, and humanities [1] Group 2 - The article presents a framework by Liu Dian that analyzes the ongoing technological competition between China and the U.S., focusing on AI as a central theme [2] - It mentions the shift from traditional trading floors to algorithm-driven electronic trading systems, indicating a significant transformation in financial markets [2] - The article references notable books that explore the psychological aspects of money and the impact of high-frequency trading on market dynamics [2][9] Group 3 - The book by Zhou Qiren discusses the challenges faced by businesses and individuals in a rapidly changing global landscape, providing insights into potential growth opportunities [3] - Edward Glaeser’s work on urban economics presents a comprehensive view of urban development, addressing key concepts such as spatial equilibrium and agglomeration economies [5] Group 4 - Liu Dian's book on AI explores the competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China, focusing on the implications of data, computing power, and algorithms [7] - The book "The Art of Money" by Morgan Housel delves into the relationship between money, human behavior, and decision-making, offering insights into financial literacy [15] Group 5 - The book "Breaking the Urban-Rural Dual Structure" by Cai Fang addresses the challenges of rural development in China and proposes policy recommendations for urban-rural integration [17] - The work "The Joy of Possession in 11th Century China" examines historical perspectives on happiness and ownership, reflecting on cultural and literary themes [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of breaking the urban-rural dual structure in China as a crucial task for achieving modernization and equitable resource distribution, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][7][8]. Group 1: Urban-Rural Dual Structure - The urban-rural dual structure in China is primarily caused by a public service supply system that treats residents differently based on their household registration status, leading to significant disparities in employment opportunities, living conditions, and access to public goods [5][6]. - There exists a substantial productivity gap between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, which further divides laborers and residents between urban and rural areas [5][6]. - The dual structure reinforces itself, resulting in insufficient social mobility and hindering the transition of labor from rural to urban areas, as many rural workers return home after seeking employment in cities [6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for addressing the urban-rural dual structure, with 2026-2030 being particularly pivotal for achieving this goal [7][8]. - The plan should reflect the main objectives and key requirements for breaking the dual structure, ensuring that it is prioritized in policy formulation and implementation [8][9]. - The need for comprehensive reforms to promote balanced urban-rural development and equitable resource allocation is highlighted, aligning with the directives from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [8][9]. Group 3: Implementation Strategies - Achieving the ambitious goals of breaking the urban-rural dual structure requires innovative approaches and the mobilization of various societal stakeholders, similar to the efforts made in poverty alleviation [10]. - Top-level design is necessary to share the costs and benefits of reforms, particularly regarding the household registration system, which has been a significant barrier to progress [10][11]. - The integration of artificial intelligence and technology is proposed as a means to enhance agricultural development and facilitate the necessary reforms [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article announces the release of the "China Good Books" recommended list for September 2025, highlighting a selection of books that promote reading and cultural values in China [59]. Group 1: Recommended Books - The recommended books include titles such as "The 'Party History Six Pairs' Revelation," "My Grandfather Yang Jingyu," "Six Feet Alley, Wide World," "Breaking the Urban-Rural Dual Structure," "Thirteen Lectures on Western Modern Thought," "Green Flames," "Mountains and Waters," "Plant Breathing, Animal Running: Western Biological Chronicles," "Brain Science Lectures," "Science and Technology in Historical Perspective," "Salt Lake," "Re Mu and Blue," "General's Order," "Nine-Color Deer," and "Bird Paradise" [59]. Group 2: Themes and Contributions - "The 'Party History Six Pairs' Revelation" discusses significant dialogues among key Chinese Communist Party figures, emphasizing historical wisdom and contemporary relevance [7]. - "My Grandfather Yang Jingyu" presents a personal narrative of a military figure's legacy through family memories, showcasing patriotism [10]. - "Six Feet Alley, Wide World" illustrates traditional virtues of the Chinese people through everyday life stories [14]. - "Breaking the Urban-Rural Dual Structure" analyzes the mechanisms and challenges of urban-rural integration, offering policy suggestions for future development [18]. - "Thirteen Lectures on Western Modern Thought" provides a framework for understanding Western societal dynamics through key concepts [21]. - "Green Flames" recounts the contributions of intellectuals during the Anti-Japanese War, highlighting cultural resilience [24]. - "Plant Breathing, Animal Running: Western Biological Chronicles" explores the relationship between humans and nature through the lens of Western biodiversity [30]. - "Brain Science Lectures" delves into the evolution and functioning of the human brain, linking scientific research to everyday life [34]. - "Science and Technology in Historical Perspective" examines the interplay between science, technology, and society throughout history [38]. - "Salt Lake" narrates a grandfather's journey to fulfill a lifelong wish, imparting life lessons to his grandchildren [41]. - "Re Mu and Blue" tells the story of a boy overcoming challenges to pursue his passion for weaving [46]. - "General's Order" depicts the spirit of youth participating in anti-Japanese propaganda efforts during wartime [50]. - "Nine-Color Deer" adapts a traditional tale from Dunhuang, emphasizing themes of kindness and betrayal [54]. - "Bird Paradise" illustrates the ecological significance of a unique landscape in Guangdong, celebrating nature's resilience [57].

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy in the face of global skepticism and potential crises, highlighting its ability to find opportunities amid challenges [2][3][21] - It emphasizes that the Chinese real estate market has been a significant investment belief for the public, contrasting with Western predictions of a financial crisis similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. [5][21] - The article identifies unique structural and institutional factors in China that provide a buffer against economic downturns, such as the dual urban-rural structure and the government's ability to mobilize resources quickly [6][21] Group 2 - The article points out the ongoing struggles of the agricultural sector, noting that farmers bear the brunt of the economic pressures resulting from industrial overcapacity and capital crises [8][10][12] - It highlights the irony of China's position as a major creditor to the U.S., while facing internal social and environmental debts, suggesting a complex relationship in global finance [14][18][19] - The article concludes that the cyclical nature of economic crises in China has led to a unique resilience, where each crisis has been met with recovery and growth, driven by structural and cultural factors [21][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the source of incremental funds for China's capital market has undergone a transformative change, driven by the accumulation of significant social net wealth and low bank savings rates, leading to a shift towards capital market investments [1][8] - Liu Shijun emphasizes that the current economic challenges are primarily due to insufficient consumption rather than investment, highlighting a structural deviation in consumption patterns compared to international averages [2][3] - The need for structural reforms in three key areas is identified to effectively expand consumption, focusing on housing for new citizens, pension system reforms, and facilitating the flow of production factors between urban and rural areas [6][5] Group 2 - The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a focus on nurturing large, globally competitive technology firms and a multitude of innovative small and medium enterprises [8] - Liu Shijun suggests that the capital market can enhance resource utilization efficiency, increase investors' income, and support pension expenditures in an aging society, thereby promoting consumption through wealth effects [8] - The recommendation includes implementing a balanced import-export strategy to enhance the international status of the RMB, shifting from a reliance on dollar reserves to increasing the use of RMB in global trade [8]

Group 1 - The relationship between investment and consumption is interdependent, and both are essential for expanding total demand in the economy [2][3] - Government spending should focus on both investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, with current policies showing a structural bias towards investment [2][3] - The accumulation of material capital through investment is fundamental for economic growth, while consumption contributes to human capital, which is increasingly important in an innovation-driven economy [2][4] Group 2 - The debate over whether to prioritize investment or consumption is less productive than understanding their relationship within the overall economic cycle [3] - Government spending has become an integral part of daily economic cycles, and its effectiveness is hindered by issues such as mismatched flows and uncertainty in spending responsibilities [3][6] - A shift towards a human-centered logic in economic development is necessary, focusing on meeting people's needs through both investment and consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Urban-rural dualism restricts the mobility of farmers, impacting their access to equal public services and opportunities, which highlights the need for government investment and consumption to address these social identity issues [5][6] - Promoting social equity requires addressing inequalities in starting points and opportunities, with government policies aimed at facilitating migration and urbanization [7] - The central-local fiscal relationship is crucial for effective government investment and consumption, with local government spending being a significant component of overall fiscal policy [8][9] Group 4 - Current data shows that central government spending has increased by 9%, while local government spending has only grown by 3.9%, indicating insufficient expansion at the local level [9] - To implement more effective fiscal policies, reforms in the central-local fiscal relationship are essential, particularly in increasing the share of central government spending [9]