Group 1 - The Economic Information Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank predicts that the formation of the new government may take up to five months, potentially negatively impacting the economy with a projected growth rate of less than 1% in the first half of the year [1] - EIC expects the new coalition government to face constraints in advancing its policy agenda due to no single party obtaining a decisive majority in parliament, similar to the results of the 2023 elections [1] - The passage of the fiscal budget for FY2027 is anticipated to be delayed by 1 to 2 months, leading to corresponding delays in budget allocations and public spending for the year [1] Group 2 - EIC notes that while political parties' campaign promises mainly focus on cash subsidies, there are proposals for governance reforms and broader structural reforms in various areas, including household debt, competitiveness, infrastructure investment, environmental risks, demographic issues, labor quality, inequality, social welfare, and public sector governance [1] - The support for the economy from the outgoing government is expected to gradually weaken during the transition period [2][3] - EIC forecasts a decline in export value this year due to the implementation of further U.S. import tariffs and increased global competition, negatively impacting external demand [3] Group 3 - The Thai economy continues to benefit from a gradual recovery in foreign tourist numbers, with significant contributions from markets such as Europe, India, and the United States, alongside signs of recovery in Chinese tourist numbers due to new flight routes [3] - EIC anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% in the first half of the year, maintaining this level throughout 2026, in response to weak economic growth, heightened political uncertainty, and a general contraction in private sector credit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate that a majority of officials believe further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation declines as expected over time [1] Group 1 - Some officials explicitly stated that they believe rates should remain unchanged for "some time" after the December meeting [1] - The minutes reflect internal divisions within the central bank and the difficulty of the recent decision-making process [1] - Officials voted 9 to 3 to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] Group 2 - Some officials supporting the rate cut noted that the decision was made after considerable deliberation, and they could have supported maintaining the target range [1] - A subtle adjustment in the post-meeting statement suggests uncertainty among officials regarding when the FOMC might cut rates again [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Uruguay has lowered the key interest rate from 8.25% to 8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article tracks the progress of global interest rate cuts by major central banks in 2024, highlighting the adjustments made and their implications for the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Adjustments** Major central banks have begun to lower interest rates in 2024, responding to economic conditions and inflation trends. This shift indicates a potential easing of monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - **Economic Implications** The reduction in interest rates is expected to impact various sectors, including consumer spending, investment, and overall economic activity. Lower borrowing costs may encourage businesses and consumers to take on more debt, potentially leading to increased economic activity [1] - **Global Trends** The article notes that the trend of rate cuts is not isolated to one region but is a global phenomenon, with several central banks aligning their policies in response to similar economic pressures [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates this year, maintaining a range of 4.25%-4.5% since the last cut in December 2024 [1] - The Brazilian central bank has raised rates 4 times this year, totaling an increase of 275 basis points, with the current rate at 15% [1] - The Bank of Japan has increased rates once this year by 25 basis points, bringing the current rate to 0.5% [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank has lowered rates 4 times this year, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, currently at 2% [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut rates 3 times this year, totaling a 100 basis point decrease, with the current rate at 3.25% [2] - The Reserve Bank of India has also reduced rates 3 times this year by 100 basis points, with the current rate at 5.5% [2] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered rates 2 times this year, totaling a 50 basis point decrease, currently at 0% [2] - The Bank of Korea has cut rates 2 times this year, with a total reduction of 50 basis points, currently at 2.5% [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia has lowered rates 2 times this year, totaling a 50 basis point decrease, with the current rate at 3.85% [2] - The Bank of England has reduced rates 2 times this year by 50 basis points, currently at 4.25% [2] - The Bank of Canada has also lowered rates 2 times this year, totaling a 50 basis point decrease, with the current rate at 2.75% [2] - The Central Bank of Russia has cut rates once this year by 100 basis points, currently at 20% [2] - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the seven-day reverse repurchase rate once this year, with a total reduction of 10 basis points, currently at 1.4% [2]

Group 1 - The central bank of the Philippines has lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, which was in line with market expectations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, along with the successive interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe, the UK, and other countries, has strengthened the US dollar index. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and India-Pakistan may lead to a short - term adjustment in precious metal prices. However, the expected slowdown of the US economic growth, the future interest rate cut expectations of the Fed, and the continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks may cause precious metal prices to fluctuate and strengthen in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai gold was 779.50 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.23 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was - 32,282.00, and the holding volume was 216,404.00. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3248.30 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 18.70 compared to the previous value. The London gold spot price was 3324.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 27.75 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver was 8100.00 yuan/kg, with a change of - 13.00 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was - 199,344.00, and the holding volume was 3,499,912.00. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 32.65 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous value. The London silver spot price was 32.43 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.09 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 461.00 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.98 US dollars/barrel. The Shanghai inter - bank offered rate SHIBOR overnight was 1.50%, and the one - year rate was 1.71%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3700%, and the TIPS yield was 2.0800%. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding price changes [2]. Important Information - **Geopolitical**: After the India - Pakistan cease - fire, there were explosions in the India - controlled Kashmir region. Ukraine plans to have an unconditional cease - fire for at least 30 days, and Putin proposed to resume Russia - Ukraine negotiations on May 15. Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia. The US and China agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated "zero tariffs" and demanded the US to completely cancel automobile tariffs [2]. - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. Different central banks have different future interest - rate adjustment expectations based on their respective economic data [2]. Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio". For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level around 8600 - 8900 [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and successive interest - rate cuts by central banks in Europe, China, and the UK have strengthened the US dollar index. However, due to continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious metal prices may experience short - term adjustments but are bullish in the long - run. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 787.53 yuan/gram on 2025 - 05 - 08, down 11.36 from the previous day; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3310.40, down 62.20; London gold spot was 3392.25 dollars/ounce, up 50.25 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 8252.00 yuan/ten - grams on 2025 - 05 - 08, down 121.00; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 32.82, down 0.22; London silver spot was 32.23 dollars/ounce, down 0.45 [1] Important News - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. The US retains a 10% benchmark tariff, reduces the tariff on the first 100,000 imported British cars to 10%, and cuts steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The UK reduces the tariff on US ethanol to zero and reaches a beef reciprocal access agreement [1] - Trump proposed to tax millionaires to balance finances, with a maximum rate of 39.6%. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there was a three - way split in the decision. Kazakhstan said it had no plan to cut oil production before May [1] - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted as early as August - October, which will slow the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. US economic data in April delayed the Fed's expected interest - rate cut to July/September/December [1] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, with the deposit mechanism rate dropping to 2.25%. Eurozone economic data may lead the ECB to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and the market expects it to raise interest rates around July [1]