Core Viewpoint - The market outlook for A-shares remains positive, supported by global interest rate cuts and increased domestic capital inflow, leading to a gradual rise in the index center [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index rose by 0.59% as of June 30, 2025, with notable performances from stocks such as Kaiying Network (up 10%), Jingwang Electronics (up 7.86%), and Shenzhou Taiyue (up 6.76%) [1] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF increased by 0.51%, with the latest price at 0.98 yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Huaxi Securities suggests that the A-share market will continue to stabilize and improve, driven by the reopening of global interest rate cuts and a recovery in investor risk appetite [1] - Zheshang Securities indicates that mid-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with upcoming trading opportunities expected in July, although uncertainties may increase [1] - Recommended investment strategy includes focusing on banks as a stable investment, while being optimistic about TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [1] Group 3: Index Valuation - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.84, which is lower than 91.96% of the time over the past three years, indicating strong valuation appeal [2] - The index is characterized by a small and mid-cap value growth style, with a better profitability and lower valuation compared to the broader CSI 500 index [2] Group 4: Top Holdings - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index account for 23.79% of the index, with notable companies including Chifeng Gold, Ninebot, and Shenghong Technology [2][4]

Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article tracks the progress of global interest rate cuts by major central banks in 2024, highlighting the adjustments made and their implications for the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Adjustments** Major central banks have begun to lower interest rates in 2024, responding to economic conditions and inflation trends. This shift indicates a potential easing of monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - **Economic Implications** The reduction in interest rates is expected to impact various sectors, including consumer spending, investment, and overall economic activity. Lower borrowing costs may encourage businesses and consumers to take on more debt, potentially leading to increased economic activity [1] - **Global Trends** The article notes that the trend of rate cuts is not isolated to one region but is a global phenomenon, with several central banks aligning their policies in response to similar economic pressures [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be a sideways consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be sideways with a bullish bias [2] - The short - term downward momentum of corn futures prices weakens, maintaining a weak sideways movement [3] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, and the overall defense line is set at the upper edge of the moving average system [4] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6] - For steel, it is advisable to wait and see currently and wait for stabilization due to declining demand [7] - Coke and coking coal are in a low - level weak sideways movement due to ample supply [8] - The iron ore 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - The WTI main contract will mainly move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber is in a weak state with overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices will move weakly at a low level with a sideways trend due to a weak fundamental situation [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot price: Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil in China may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - Spot price: 43% soybean meal prices vary by region, e.g., Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US trade has a phased agreement but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose. Demand was underestimated, and inventory accumulation is slow [2] Corn - Spot price: Different regions have different prices, e.g., the average purchase price in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,193 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: The market has a loose expectation of long - term corn imports. The 5 - month USDA report is negative for US corn prices. In China, supply pressure eases, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] Copper - Spot price: Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,430 - 786,590 yuan, down 5 yuan [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and the copper market is complex due to various factors [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 62,000 yuan/ton (+250 yuan/ton) [5] - Market analysis: Ore prices have dropped, but lithium salt prices are falling faster. Supply is high, and demand is improving but insufficient. Inventory is decreasing overall. The 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement [5][6] Steel - Spot price: Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, and the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56% [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Cost and inventory show a complex situation, and the market is influenced by macro - policies and shows a supply - demand dual - strong pattern [7] Coke and Coking Coal - Spot price: Main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is gradually accumulating, and profit is approaching the break - even point. They are in a low - level weak sideways movement [8] Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts iron ore index is 96.45 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Global shipments are slightly down, port inventory has decreased, and domestic demand is complex. The 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement [9] Crude Oil - Market analysis: Supply increase expectations have faded, but demand growth is slowing. OPEC+ will increase production in June. The WTI main contract will move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] Rubber - Market analysis: Global supply is ample, and demand may be inhibited by US tariffs. It is in a weak state with supply exceeding demand [11][12] PVC - Spot price: East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [13] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. Futures prices are moving weakly at a low level [13] Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,406.25 yuan/ton, unchanged [14] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased due to planned maintenance, inventory has decreased slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14]

信猫哥，绝对不会错，今天的港股又一次大涨，周末贸易谈判出了好消息。猫哥早说了，这场博弈，中 国必胜。 自从猫哥看涨港股以来，港股几乎没有跌过，而今天恒指也是再次成功回到了23000以上，恒指自低点 已经反弹了接近20%。一个月前，猫哥强势唱多中国资产，很多人还在嘲笑猫哥，但现在小丑是谁，可 以说是一目了然。 美股那边，自然还是诱多行情，猫哥相信崩盘是迟早的事，现在散户越来越疯狂，被套牢的概率相当 大。猫哥布局的空头仓位，距离收货的季节已经不远了。 【走势复盘】 港股今天继续上涨的原因有以下几方面： 1、贸易谈判出了阶段性利好，很多人应该都已经预知到这些利好消息了，像猫哥很早就进行了中国资 产的做多布局，这一次完整的吃到了这一轮20%的上涨行情。 港股市场近期迎来多重利好，政策面、资金面、业绩面、情绪面等齐发力，有望再度掀起一波投资热 潮！央行降准降息组合拳释放万亿流动性，配合5000亿服务消费再贷款与3000亿科技创新再贷款等，内 需与科技双轮驱动，政策"稳增长、稳信心"信号强烈。 资金面上，外资与南向资金共振：港币近期大幅升值，或显示外资再度加仓港股市场；4月南向净流入 超1600亿港元，5月首日再破百亿。 ...