Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The change in the interest rate trend expectations of major central banks has significantly increased the holding cost of non - interest - generating precious metals, suppressing the price trends of gold and silver. After a sharp short - term decline, the short - selling force has been somewhat released, and the prices may fluctuate widely at the current level. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 4.99% to $4651.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 6.16% to $72.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 4.99% to 1026.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 6.07% to 17660 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - On March 19, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.858 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1062.135 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 77.46 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15186.94 tons. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 92.8%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hike is 9.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate hike is 0.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 90.6%. [1] - On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged and opened the channel for "possible interest rate hikes". The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting and mentioned in the statement that it is concerned about the impact of rising oil prices. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 205,000, lower than the estimated 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week of March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said on March 19 that the US did not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf region, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the next few days. In addition, the US may release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. [1] - France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan announced in a joint statement that they are prepared to take appropriate measures together to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. [1] - Iran said its offensive and defensive capabilities are unprecedented and warned that it will retaliate if its energy facilities are attacked again. According to Iranian lawmakers, the Iranian parliament is promoting a bill that requires relevant countries to pay tolls and taxes to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is used as a safe passage for ship traffic, energy, and food transportation. [1] Market Logic - The US Producer Price Index in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 3.0%. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and leading to bets on interest rate hikes. The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March, in line with market expectations. The European, British, and Japanese central banks all announced unchanged interest rates, and the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast. [2] - The US dollar index fell 1.10% to 99.19 on Thursday, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 4.25%. After Iran counterattacked the oil and gas facilities of relevant Middle - Eastern countries, the US Treasury Secretary said that sanctions on Iranian oil on sea tankers might be lifted, and Israel would "suspend" air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. International crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday and then declined. [2] Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks. [2]

Market Overview - COMEX gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of nearly $4500 per ounce before closing at $4651.90, down 4.99%[2] - COMEX silver also saw a sharp decline, hitting a low close to $65 per ounce and ending at $72.81, down 6.16%[2] - The Shanghai gold and silver futures also dropped, with gold at 1026.74 yuan per gram (down 4.99%) and silver at 17660 yuan per kilogram (down 6.07%) at the close[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February rose by 3.4%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, leading to reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026[3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 205,000, lower than the expected 215,000, further diminishing expectations for a rate cut and increasing speculation for a rate hike[3] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, while raising inflation forecasts due to uncertainties from the Middle East[3] - The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan also kept their rates unchanged, with the ECB raising its inflation outlook[3] Market Sentiment - The changes in interest rate expectations among major central banks have increased the holding costs of non-yielding precious metals, putting downward pressure on gold and silver prices[3] - Following a rapid decline, gold and silver prices found some support near previous lows, indicating potential for wide fluctuations in the short term[3] - Investors are advised to manage positions carefully and mitigate risks amid increased market volatility[3]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have recently declined, with gold futures dropping over 3% to around $4,878.90, a nearly 9% decrease from the historical high of $5,354.80 on January 29 [1] - Silver prices fell 7.2% to $72.33, approximately 37% lower than the peak of $115.50 on January 26 [1] - The recent price drop is attributed to a stronger dollar and ongoing geopolitical negotiations, which have led to a sell-off in the commodity market [1] Group 2 - The demand from Asia, particularly China, has been crucial in driving metal prices higher in recent months, according to Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank [2] - The recent price movements reflect a significant pullback after a strong upward trend driven by regional demand and investor inflows [2] - Despite the current downturn, structural drivers supporting gold, such as central bank purchases and rising government debt, remain intact [2] Group 3 - Silver's recent performance illustrates its typical volatility, with traders actively seeking support and resistance levels [3] - There is speculation that silver may soon test the $70 mark, with potential for buying interest to emerge as the U.S. market reopens [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in gold and silver prices, indicating that while there has been a recent rebound, the short-term outlook remains bearish with significant selling pressure expected [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices are fluctuating between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce, while silver prices are ranging from $70 to $90 per ounce [1] - Analysts warn that it is too early to declare a bottom for gold prices, suggesting ongoing selling pressure in the short term [1] - The key psychological level for gold is identified at $5,000 per ounce, which will be crucial for future price movements [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Despite a solid long-term fundamental outlook for gold, short-term challenges persist, according to market analysts [1] - Recent sell-offs in gold and silver are viewed as market adjustments rather than a reversal of trends, indicating potential for future price stability rather than explosive growth [1] - Analysts predict that precious metal prices are more likely to rise at a stable, non-linear pace moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - BMO predicts significant increases in precious metal prices, with gold potentially reaching $6,350 per ounce by Q4 2026 and $8,650 per ounce by Q4 2027, driven by heightened investor interest amid global risk events [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - In an extreme bullish scenario, gold prices are expected to rise to $6,350 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1] - By the end of 2027, gold prices could further increase to $8,650 per ounce [1] Group 2: Silver and Platinum Price Outlook - Silver prices are projected to potentially exceed $150 per ounce this year [1] - Platinum futures may rise above $4,000 per ounce [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The anticipated price movements reflect a trend of investors accelerating their allocation towards gold and other precious metals [1] - Concerns over global order changes and government governance issues are intensifying due to a series of risk events impacting the market [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold reached a record high of $4,800 per ounce on January 20, and increased to over $4,880 by the following morning, marking a year-to-date increase of more than 12% and a 76% rise over the last 12 months [1] - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) forecasts that gold could trade between $3,450 and $7,150 per ounce by 2026, with analysts predicting an average price of $4,000 from Robin Bhar and $6,050 from Julia Du [2] Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver surpassed $95 per ounce for the first time on January 20, fluctuating around this price, and has shown a year-to-date increase of about 34% and over 201% increase over the last year [3]

Market Focus - Precious metal prices are expected to see significant increases in 2025, with platinum and silver reaching new price records in December [2] - The influx of metals into U.S. reserves due to tariff threats has impacted liquidity in other regions, affecting palladium and platinum markets [2] - Platinum and silver were historically undervalued at the beginning of the year, but their prices have significantly narrowed the gap with gold [2] Supply and Demand - A supply shortage in the platinum market is anticipated in 2025, continuing into 2026, while the palladium and rhodium markets are less strained [3] - South African production of platinum group metals has been below normal for a year, with current supply constraints due to holiday closures [3] - ETF holdings for platinum increased by 197,000 ounces in December, but this growth does not match the price surge [3] Technical Analysis - Platinum prices were overbought by the end of December, with an RSI above 90 and prices exceeding the 200-day moving average by 44.4% [4] - Historical data indicates that when prices exceed the 200-day moving average by more than 20%, corrections or bear markets typically follow [4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices close to historical highs, with significant U.S. actions in Latin America and renewed focus on Greenland's mineral reserves [6] - Despite a pullback after reaching a record high in December, gold prices are projected to rise by 65% in 2025 [6] Export Regulations - China will restrict silver exports starting January 1, 2026, allowing only a limited number of companies to export [7] - In 2025, China exported approximately 4,700 tons of silver, and the new regulations come amid soaring silver prices [7] Trading Activity - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange saw a surge in trading volume for platinum and palladium contracts in December, following significant price increases [8] - Trading limits were adjusted to curb speculative flows, impacting trading volumes while prices continued to rise [8] Automotive Market Impact - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China declined by 13% in December, although sales of new energy vehicles increased by approximately 5% [9] - The government is supporting new energy vehicle sales through a subsidy program, which may enhance the recovery of platinum group metals, particularly palladium [9]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market is experiencing an upward trend in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4,580.74 per ounce and silver futures at $83.475 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as protests in Iran and discussions between the UK and Germany regarding military presence in Greenland, have increased investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Recent U.S. employment data showed mixed results, with job growth below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, leading to speculation about potential adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rates [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices are maintaining an upward trend within a rising channel, currently above the 200-period simple moving average, which provides dynamic support in the $4,325-$4,320 range [4] - The MACD indicator shows positive momentum, while the RSI is at 71.82, suggesting potential overbought conditions that may limit short-term price increases [6] - Silver prices are moving in tandem with gold but exhibit greater volatility, with recent gains attributed to both industrial and financial demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced a significant rebound on December 30, with London silver rising nearly 6%, COMEX silver increasing over 8%, and Shanghai silver futures up more than 5% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, precious metals, led by silver, saw a sharp decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping 7.2% and spot silver falling over 9% [4]. - The trading volume for COMEX silver was reported at 59,000 contracts, with a price increase of 8.23% [3]. - Shanghai silver futures opened at 18,734, up 5.03%, with a trading volume of 145,400 contracts [4]. Group 2: Margin Changes and Market Reactions - On December 29, the CME Group announced an increase in trading margins for metals, including a 10% increase for gold futures and approximately 13.6% for silver futures, which contributed to the price declines [5]. - Analysts suggest that the price drop on December 29 may be a short-term correction, with future trading trends critical for determining the direction of gold and silver prices [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute forecasts a supply-demand gap in the global silver market exceeding 100 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [6]. - As of December 26, 2025, the largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [6]. - Current silver inventories are at historical lows, with approximately 27,000 tons reported, most of which are tied to ETFs and not freely tradable [6]. Group 4: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Optimistic analysts, including Peter Schiff, predict silver prices could exceed $100 per ounce next year, while others like Robert Gottlieb suggest moderate price increases based on structural support [6]. - UBS warns that the rapid increase in precious metal prices may be unsustainable due to market liquidity issues, indicating a potential for a swift decline [6]. - Analysts from Capital Economics express concerns that current precious metal prices have risen to levels difficult to justify based on fundamentals, predicting a drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Analysts from Huolong Futures note that silver is currently outperforming gold, with significant volatility and a potential "frenzy phase" in the market, advising caution for ordinary investors [7]. - They recommend that long-term silver investors consider buying put options to protect their positions during price corrections [7].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver futures prices on December 29 is attributed to profit-taking by investors and short-term futures trading, with gold prices falling over 4.5% and silver prices nearing a 9% decline after reaching historical highs earlier in the week [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold futures reached a historical high of $4,584.00 per ounce on December 26, while silver prices hit a record $82.67 per ounce [1] - Analysts believe the price drop is a short-term correction, with the overall upward trend still intact [1] - The trading activity in the following two days will be crucial for determining the price direction of gold and silver in the coming weeks [1] Group 2: Future Price Predictions - If significant selling pressure occurs in the next two days, it may indicate that a short-term market top has formed [1] - Conversely, a strong rebound in prices could establish the recent low as a new "rebound low" in the ongoing upward trend [1] - Robert Gottlieb, former head of precious metals trading at JPMorgan and HSBC, suggests that the sustainability of gold and silver price increases by 2026 will depend on their roles in global investment portfolios [1] - He anticipates a moderate increase in gold and silver prices based on structural support [1]