Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which remains unchanged, leading to a significant price drop in gold futures [1][2]. Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a stronger dollar index, which may negatively impact gold and silver prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding tariffs on imports from India and potential sanctions on Russia, are increasing market risk aversion [2]. - Despite expectations of a rate hold, high interest rates and persistent core inflation in the U.S. are keeping real yields and the dollar index strong, which is bearish for precious metals [2]. Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.46 billion last week, with a total net inflow of $8.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest in gold during price corrections [3]. - In China, despite a record high in gold prices, major funds have seen significant net redemptions, totaling approximately 3.2 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high [3]. - The outlook for gold prices may improve if the Federal Reserve provides clearer signals regarding future rate cuts, potentially aligning overseas and Chinese capital flows [3]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term resistance for gold prices is noted due to resilient U.S. economic data and reduced inflation risks, with the Fed not in a hurry to cut rates [4]. - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise due to anticipated declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, strong physical demand, and limited growth in gold supply [4].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the price trends of silver and platinum may align closely with those of gold [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's forecast suggests a correlation between the price movements of silver, platinum, and gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the price trends of silver and platinum may align closely with those of gold [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a potential correlation between the movements of precious metals, particularly highlighting the similarities in price behavior [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with silver futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.90% [1] - The main contract for silver opened at 8784.00 yuan/kg, reaching a high of 8964.00 yuan and a low of 8781.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected negative ADP employment data has raised concerns about the economy and increased the likelihood of quicker interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports precious metal prices [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, as discrepancies between this data and ADP figures could shift market expectations [2] - Current market sentiment indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut in July, influenced by the recent ADP data [2] - Analysts caution that while silver prices are trending upwards, the strength of this trend should be approached with caution, pending further economic data [2]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices experienced a rise and subsequent decline, while SGE gold showed a slight correction, indicating market volatility [1] - The performance of gold-related ETFs varied, with Huaxia ETF (518850) rising nearly 25% year-to-date and reaching a record high of 4.92 billion yuan in product scale as of July 1 [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.1%, with a year-to-date gain of approximately 42%, significantly outperforming the gold price increase [1] Group 2 - London spot gold prices saw a cumulative increase of 25.7% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest half-year gain since the second half of 2007 [1] - Experts suggest that factors such as geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases continue to support gold prices, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the second half of the year [1] - Recent U.S. economic data showed better-than-expected results, contributing to a rebound in precious metals after a period of decline, while the dollar index remains on a downward trend [2]

Macro News - Trump stated that there is no need to extend the deadline and will assign tax rates to various countries [2] - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan due to its reluctance to import American rice [2] - The EU is reportedly willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries [2] - Canada has made concessions by canceling the digital services tax, and trade negotiations between the US and Canada will resume with the aim of reaching an agreement by July 21 [2] - Bessent anticipates the signing of a series of new trade agreements, stating that the current issuance of long-term bonds is meaningless, and stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid-July [2] - Despite Republican senators managing to gather votes to initiate debate, the final passage of the bill remains uncertain, with concerns over its potential massive debt scale [2] - Musk criticized the bill as "absurd and destructive," highlighting divisions between hardliners and moderates within the party [2] Institutional Views - Precious metal prices remained volatile in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.11% to $36.33 per ounce [4] - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, with inflation data slightly higher than anticipated, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, which negatively impacted precious metal prices [4] - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, has also contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Future price movements of precious metals will be closely monitored in relation to Federal Reserve policy changes [4] - The projected trading range for Comex gold is between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, while the trading range for Shanghai gold is between 750 and 790 yuan per gram [4] - The projected trading range for Comex silver is between $34 and $37 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between 8500 and 9200 yuan per kilogram [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.28, while spot silver opened at $36.32/oz and is currently around $36.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 8795 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 8818 yuan/kg [1] - Last week, the US dollar index rose by 0.28% to close at 98.14, while spot silver fell by 0.12% to $36.29/oz. Other precious metals showed mixed results: spot gold increased by 1.38% to $3431.99/oz, while platinum and palladium fell by 5.25% and 3.18%, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating the release of China's retail sales and loan market quotation rate (LPR), as well as the US June New York Fed manufacturing index, which are expected to provide insights into the economic conditions and influence investment strategies [1][4] Group 3: Silver Price Forecast - Analysts predict that silver prices will reach $37 per troy ounce by the end of this year, with upward adjustments of $3 from previous forecasts. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to rise to $1250 and $1100 per troy ounce, respectively, with increases of $250 and $100 [3] - Looking ahead to the end of next year, silver prices are projected to further increase to $40 per troy ounce, platinum to $1400, and palladium to $1200, with respective upward adjustments of $4, $300, and $150 [3] - The price movements of silver and platinum are expected to align closely with gold, while the increase in palladium may be relatively smaller. However, silver and platinum remain significantly undervalued compared to gold [3]

Group 1 - The price of platinum-rhodium wire has recently surpassed 406 yuan per gram, marking a 12% increase from 360 yuan over the past three months [1][3] - The demand for platinum-rhodium alloys is driven by their essential role in automotive catalytic converters and the glass fiber industry, with increased usage due to stricter emissions standards for fuel vehicles [3][5] - The global supply of rhodium is heavily concentrated in South Africa, where power crises have led to the shutdown of several smelting plants, tightening the supply chain and driving prices up [3][5] Group 2 - The current price of 406 yuan per gram is 35% higher than the same period in 2023, with downstream glass manufacturers just beginning to adjust their purchase prices [5] - Technical analysis indicates that the price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting potential volatility ahead [5] - A strategy of selling in three batches is recommended, with the first batch being 30% of the total volume to secure initial profits, while the remaining 70% should be monitored for further price movements [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, along with the successive interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe, the UK, and other countries, has strengthened the US dollar index. The easing of geopolitical conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and India-Pakistan may lead to a short - term adjustment in precious metal prices. However, the expected slowdown of the US economic growth, the future interest rate cut expectations of the Fed, and the continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks may cause precious metal prices to fluctuate and strengthen in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai gold was 779.50 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.23 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was - 32,282.00, and the holding volume was 216,404.00. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3248.30 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 18.70 compared to the previous value. The London gold spot price was 3324.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 27.75 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver was 8100.00 yuan/kg, with a change of - 13.00 compared to the previous value. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was - 199,344.00, and the holding volume was 3,499,912.00. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 32.65 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous value. The London silver spot price was 32.43 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.09 compared to the previous value [2]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 461.00 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.98 US dollars/barrel. The Shanghai inter - bank offered rate SHIBOR overnight was 1.50%, and the one - year rate was 1.71%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3700%, and the TIPS yield was 2.0800%. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding price changes [2]. Important Information - **Geopolitical**: After the India - Pakistan cease - fire, there were explosions in the India - controlled Kashmir region. Ukraine plans to have an unconditional cease - fire for at least 30 days, and Putin proposed to resume Russia - Ukraine negotiations on May 15. Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia. The US and China agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reiterated "zero tariffs" and demanded the US to completely cancel automobile tariffs [2]. - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted between August and October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. Different central banks have different future interest - rate adjustment expectations based on their respective economic data [2]. Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the arbitrage opportunity of short - term, light - position, high - level shorting of the "gold - silver ratio". For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level around 8600 - 8900 [2].