1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in September [1][2][4][10][80] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises in China showed marginal improvement, possibly related to the low base, but overall pressure remained. Manufacturing profits were the core driving force, with raw material manufacturing profits turning from decline to growth, and industries like steel and petroleum processing turning profitable, reflecting the stabilization of commodity prices and the effectiveness of supply - side reform [2][10][11][80] - The bond market may be suppressed by sentiment in the short term, but the report is consistently bullish on the bond market in September. The increasing economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, continuous central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The peak of net government bond issuance this year has passed, and after September, the net issuance of government bonds may not exceed 25% of the annual plan, presenting a repair window for interest - rate bonds [2][4][10][80] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - In July 2025, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and 2.3% from January to July. The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in July, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 pct compared to June. From January to July, profits decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing profits increased by 6.8% year - on - year in July, accelerating by 5.4 pct compared to June [11] - On August 28, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, proposing to systematically promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities [13] - On August 25 (Eastern Time), US President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Market bets on the Fed's policy easing continued to heat up, with traders expecting an over 80% probability of a rate cut in September [14] 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption: Moderate Growth - As of August 24, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 60,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 71,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. As of August 28, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 976.06 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [15] 3.2.2 Transportation: Continued Activity - As of August 24, the container throughput of ports was 6.775 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The postal express pick - up volume was 3.7 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. The railway freight volume was 8.0868 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.5185 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [22][23][29] 3.2.3 Operating Rates: Slight Monthly Decline but Year - on - Year Growth in the Infrastructure Chain - As of August 27, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 2.8 pct. As of August 28, the average asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [32] 3.2.4 Real Estate: Persistent Downturn - As of August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.889 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [40] 3.2.5 Prices: Differentiated - As of August 29, the average pork wholesale price was 20.0 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 27.4% and a 2.7% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 4.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2% and an 11.1% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 791.5 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% and a 0.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [45][51] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Loose Funds, Slight Differentiation in the Bond Market - On August 29, overnight Shibor was 1.33%, down 2.50 BP from August 25. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year government bonds were 1.37%/1.63%/1.84%/2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.1BP/ - 0.3BP/+5.7BP/+6.0BP compared to August 22 [56][61] 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Continuous Decline in the Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds for Interest - Rate Bonds - As of August 29, the estimated average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 5.1 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to August 22. The estimated average duration of credit bond funds was about 2.8 years, a decrease of about 0.01 years compared to August 22 [76][77] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The report is bullish on the bond market in September. The economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The report expects the 10Y government bond yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and believes that the current 10Y government bond is highly cost - effective. It is expected that the 10Y government bond yield will return to around 1.65% in the next six months, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of national joint - stock banks will fall below 1.9%. Investors should cherish 5Y capital bonds with yields above 2% and 30Y government bonds [4][10][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent bond market has experienced increased volatility, with interest rates stabilizing after a correction last week and declining on Monday. The report maintains its previous view that the suppression of the bond market by the recent surge in commodity prices is mainly due to short - term sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the "anti - involution" policy will be transmitted to the downstream price, driving up inflation such as PPI/CPI. Currently, high - frequency data shows weak demand. The bond fund redemption wave may have ended, and the recent fund selling is mainly of interest - rate bonds rather than credit bonds, which is mainly to cope with liquidity shocks. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations on Monday, indicating its intention to support the capital market. Future attention should be paid to potential incremental policies from the Politburo meeting in July and the impact of events such as the China - US talks in August and the Fourth Plenary Session on the bond market [2]. - Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, showing an optimistic sentiment. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral, with a decline in the sentiment index [3]. - The report believes that Treasury bond futures will stop falling and rise this week. There are certain reverse - arbitrage opportunities in TS/TL contracts. The inter - delivery spread of TS/TF/T contracts is still inverted but at a relatively high level, while the inter - delivery spread of the TL contract is positive and rising. If the IRR of the 2512 contract is significantly higher than the capital cost, it may be appropriate to participate in positive arbitrage. The current futures price curve has flattened, but the term spreads are generally at a neutral level in history, with limited space for further flattening [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - Rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of sellers this week is 0.41, with a bullish view, up from last week. The unweighted index is 0.56, an increase of 0.02 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 16 bullish, 10 neutral, and 1 bearish. 59% of institutions are bullish, with key factors including limited impact of the "anti - involution" policy on demand, possible slowdown in export demand, unchanged fundamentals, continuous support from the central bank, narrow spread space, potential new central bank easing, and incremental policies from the Politburo meeting may not exceed expectations. 37% of institutions are neutral, focusing on the central bank's liquidity support from August to September and whether the "anti - involution" policy can be effectively transmitted to the price end. 4% of institutions are bearish, believing that all - round policy implementation may lead to economic surprises and drive up interest rates [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - Rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index of buyers this week is 0.13, with a neutral view, unchanged from last week. The unweighted index is 0.19, a decrease of 0.09 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 6 bullish, 19 neutral, and 1 bearish. 23% of institutions are bullish, considering that the upward movement of interest rates driven by short - term sentiment is an opportunity, and the broad - spectrum interest rates are generally declining. 73% of institutions are neutral, believing that the suppression of the bond market by the commodity and equity markets needs further observation, and the capital and supply sides do not form a basis for an upward adjustment of interest rates. 4% of institutions are bearish, citing factors such as global inflation driven by the depreciation of the US dollar/expansion of fiscal deficits in developed countries, a rise in domestic risk appetite, and "multi - killing - multi" among institutions [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include central bank's capital injection and redemption pressure on credit - bond ETFs. The central bank's large - scale capital injection, with a net injection of 801.8 billion yuan through reverse repurchases and MLF, has loosened the capital market. Credit - bond ETFs' component bonds were over - heated previously, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation adjustment [17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view on convertible bonds this week, with 8 bullish and 6 neutral. 57% of institutions are bullish, believing that the equity market has strong momentum, convertible bond prices still have room to rise, and attention should be paid to industries not priced by the "anti - involution" expectation at low levels. Fixed - income plus funds have strong demand for convertible bonds. 43% of institutions are also bullish, but they think that convertible bond prices are at a historical high, with a decline in cost - effectiveness. Considering refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in the underlying stock's volatility [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - As of July 25, the prices of Treasury TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased to 102.31 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 108.18 yuan, and 117.95 yuan respectively, down 0.12 yuan, 0.42 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 2.51 yuan from last Friday. The overall open interest of Treasury bond futures increased. As of July 25, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts was 104,000 lots, 159,000 lots, 196,000 lots, and 122,000 lots respectively, with changes of - 8926 lots, + 753 lots, + 3964 lots, and + 6947 lots from last Friday. The trading volume of Treasury bond futures increased across the board. From a 5 - day moving average perspective as of July 25, the trading volume of TS/TF/T/TL contracts reached 95.4 billion yuan, 86.5 billion yuan, 100.9 billion yuan, and 186 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 34.187 billion yuan, 28.162 billion yuan, 42.779 billion yuan, and 80.347 billion yuan from last Friday. The trading - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures also increased across the board [25][26]. 3.2.2 Cash Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds increased. On July 25, the turnover rate was 6.91%, up 4.04 percentage points from last week and 3.19 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 5.79%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds increased. On July 25, the turnover rate was 1.11%, up 0.29 percentage points from last week and 0.19 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds also increased. On July 25, the turnover rate was 5.69%, up 0.55 percentage points from last week but down 0.68 percentage points from Monday [32]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of the main contracts widened across the board. As of July 25, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 0.02 yuan, 0.07 yuan, 0.10 yuan, and 0.50 yuan respectively, up 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.27 yuan from last Friday. The net basis of the main contracts also widened across the board. As of July 25, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 0.03 yuan, 0.60 yuan, 0.08 yuan, and 0.28 yuan respectively, up 0.04 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.33 yuan from last Friday. The IRR of the main contracts decreased across the board. As of July 25, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts was 1.47%, 1.25%, 1.11%, and 0.21% respectively, down 0.09%, 0.40%, 0.27%, and 1.50% from last Friday [44][47]. 3.2.4 Inter - Delivery Spread and Inter - Variety Spread - In terms of the inter - delivery spread, the inter - delivery spreads of TS and TL futures contracts widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts narrowed. As of July 25, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.08 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.02 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, + 0.04 yuan, and + 0.04 yuan from last Friday. In terms of the inter - variety spread, except for the narrowing of the spread of the 2*TF - T futures contract, the spreads of other main futures contracts widened. As of July 25, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 99.07 yuan, 102.98 yuan, 301.11 yuan, and 206.47 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.20 yuan, - 0.22 yuan, + 0.18 yuan, and + 0.56 yuan from last Friday [54][55].