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Nonfarm Payrolls Come in SIgnificantly Below Expectations
ZACKS· 2025-08-01 16:11
Employment Situation Report - Nonfarm payrolls increased by +73K in July, significantly below the expected +100K [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 10 basis points to 4.2%, still considered historically low [1] - Major downward revisions were made to previous months, with June revised from +147K to +14K and May from +144K to +19K, indicating a weaker labor market [2] Wage and Labor Participation - Hourly wages increased by +0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of +3.9% [3] - Labor force participation fell to 62.2%, indicating a less robust labor market [3] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployment, decreased slightly to 7.9% [3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector added +55K jobs, making it the strongest industry for job growth [5] - Manufacturing experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, losing -37K jobs [5] - The federal government reduced its workforce by -12K jobs, totaling -84K job losses since the current administration took office [5] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the jobs report, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased from +34% to +87% [7] - Bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to +4.27% [8] - Major stock indexes declined in pre-market trading, with the Dow down -330 points, S&P 500 down -53, and Nasdaq down -220 [8] Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.64 per share, exceeding expectations by +10%, but revenues fell -1.59% short [9] - Colgate-Palmolive beat earnings expectations by 3 cents, reporting 92 cents per share, and also exceeded revenue estimates by +1.17% [10] - Regeneron had a notable earnings beat of +60.5%, reporting $12.89 per share [10]