Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026 due to declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [3] - The supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses [4] - Recent data indicates a slight retreat in copper prices after a record high, as the panic over supply tightness begins to ease [6] - The U.S. government has classified copper as a critical mineral under the Defense Production Act, aiming to secure domestic copper resources [3] Group 3: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton plant, reducing annual pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns [8] - The international market for wood chips remains tight, contributing to rising prices for hardwood pulp [9] - Despite recent price increases, the overall supply-demand situation in the pulp market remains limited, with concerns over downstream paper demand affecting price stability [10] - The market is closely monitoring the price changes of imported softwood and hardwood pulps, as well as the acceptance of price increases by downstream sectors [11]

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will feature significant tech earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, alongside a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders on Thursday [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision is anticipated, but the ongoing government shutdown complicates data availability for October, leading to uncertainty for November as well [2][9] Labor Market Insights - The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment forecast estimates an unemployment rate of 4.35% for October, showing little change from September's 4.3% [3] - Despite the lack of comprehensive data due to the shutdown, there is no indication of a significant deterioration in the labor market [4] Data Collection Challenges - The Federal Reserve's ability to gather accurate data is hindered, with the next meeting scheduled for December 10, leaving a gap in data collection for potentially one to three months [9][12] - The reliance on electronic sources for job data may allow for some estimates, but the unemployment number remains challenging to obtain due to its dependence on telephone surveys [8] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - There is a possibility of obtaining a reasonable estimate for the October CPI report if the government shutdown ends early in November, as only 2.5% of the sample is needed for a reasonable estimate [6] - Consumer confidence and jobless claims data will be monitored, although the overall data week is expected to be light due to cancellations [4][5]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan for 6 months on August 15, following a previous operation of 700 billion yuan for 3 months on August 8, resulting in a total of over 300 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity injection this month [1] - The market anticipates that the central bank may increase the amount of MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) after 300 billion yuan matures this month [1] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has cooled, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rising to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%, and marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - The initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below expectations and at the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The continuing jobless claims fell to 1.953 million, slightly below expectations, but still hovering at high levels since 2021 [1]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan with a six-month term on August 15, following a previous operation of 700 billion yuan for three months on August 8, resulting in a total of 300 billion yuan in excess liquidity injection this month [1] - The market anticipates that the central bank may increase the amount of medium-term lending facility (MLF) after the 300 billion yuan MLF matures this month [1] Group 2 - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has been dampened, as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 3.3% year-on-year in July, the highest level since February, significantly exceeding the expected 2.5% [1] - The PPI also increased by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest rise since June 2022 [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly opposed a significant 50 basis point cut in the September meeting, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urged caution in rate cuts until inflation is controlled [1] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below expectations and at the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The previous week's continuing claims fell to 1.953 million, slightly below expectations but still hovering at high levels since 2021 [1]

Employment Situation Report - Nonfarm payrolls increased by +73K in July, significantly below the expected +100K [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 10 basis points to 4.2%, still considered historically low [1] - Major downward revisions were made to previous months, with June revised from +147K to +14K and May from +144K to +19K, indicating a weaker labor market [2] Wage and Labor Participation - Hourly wages increased by +0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of +3.9% [3] - Labor force participation fell to 62.2%, indicating a less robust labor market [3] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployment, decreased slightly to 7.9% [3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector added +55K jobs, making it the strongest industry for job growth [5] - Manufacturing experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, losing -37K jobs [5] - The federal government reduced its workforce by -12K jobs, totaling -84K job losses since the current administration took office [5] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the jobs report, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased from +34% to +87% [7] - Bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to +4.27% [8] - Major stock indexes declined in pre-market trading, with the Dow down -330 points, S&P 500 down -53, and Nasdaq down -220 [8] Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.64 per share, exceeding expectations by +10%, but revenues fell -1.59% short [9] - Colgate-Palmolive beat earnings expectations by 3 cents, reporting 92 cents per share, and also exceeded revenue estimates by +1.17% [10] - Regeneron had a notable earnings beat of +60.5%, reporting $12.89 per share [10]

Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [1] Company News - JD.com (JD.O) announced a cash acquisition of German electronics retailer Ceconomy at €4.60 per share [2] - Meta Platforms (META.O) saw a pre-market increase of over 11%, with Q2 net profit rising 36% year-over-year [3] - Ford Motor Company (F.N) warned of a potential 36% drop in profits this year due to ongoing tariff impacts on the automotive industry [4] - TAL Education Group (TAL.N) reported Q1 revenue growth of nearly 40%, with a net profit of $31.28 million [5] - Western Digital (WDC.O) experienced a pre-market rise of over 6%, exceeding Q2 earnings expectations and announcing a dividend [6] - WeRide (WRD) saw a pre-market increase of nearly 8%, with Q2 revenue of ¥127 million, a year-over-year growth of 60.8% [7] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) was called in for discussions by China's Cyberspace Administration regarding security risks associated with the H20 computing chip sold in China [8] - Arm (ARM.O) reported a 12% increase in Q1 revenue to $1.05 billion, but net profit fell 41.7% year-over-year to $130 million [9] - Microsoft (MSFT.O) saw a pre-market increase of over 9% due to strong growth in Azure cloud business, with market capitalization expected to reach $4 trillion [10] - Qualcomm (QCOM.O) faced a nearly 5% pre-market decline, forecasting a potential loss of Apple as a customer for its modem chip business in the coming years [10] - Robinhood (HOOD.O) reported a 45% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue to $989 million, with net profit rising 105% to $386 million [10]