Core Insights - The report emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook for the market, suggesting that the current phase is a "slow bull market" with potential for further upward movement, particularly in the spring of 2026 [4][22] - It highlights the importance of "running horse assets," which are leading companies with global competitiveness, as key investment opportunities [4][6] - The report indicates that the market has shown signs of recovery, with trading volumes stabilizing around 2 trillion yuan, reflecting improved investor sentiment [5][10] Long-term Strategy - The report suggests that the Chinese government's supportive policies and a shift towards market empowerment will enhance economic vitality, contributing to a more robust market environment [4][6] - It anticipates a recovery in public fund issuance and an increase in insurance capital inflows, which could further support market growth [4][6] Mid-term Analysis - The report predicts a potential "spring opening red" scenario, where market sentiment improves and leads to a rally starting from late December [5][22] - It notes that the current market valuation is not at an excessively high level, indicating room for growth as economic recovery progresses [5][23] Short-term Focus - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including high-end manufacturing, technology, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from the economic transition and easing of U.S.-China tensions [6][10] - It highlights the importance of monitoring trading volumes and market sentiment as indicators for entry points into the market [5][10] Macro Economic Overview - The report discusses the downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and the influx of global capital into equity and bond markets, which is expected to positively impact the Chinese market [7][10] - It notes that the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with improvements in CPI data and a strong performance in high-frequency economic indicators compared to the previous year [7][10] Investment Portfolio Recommendations - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on both cyclical sectors and high-end manufacturing, as well as electric new energy sectors for January [8][10] - It emphasizes the importance of sector rotation and suggests that small-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks in the current market environment [10][22]

春季躁动的 10 问 10 答 20251207 摘要 年底前，受考核和漂移回归需求影响，投资者趋于谨慎，市场成交量低 迷，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议能否带来强力催化剂存在不确定性。 历史数据显示，春节前两周左右通常开启一轮趋势性上涨，涨幅超 10%，今年春季躁动或为上涨中继型，指数仍有 10%以上上涨空间。 春季躁动行情启动时间受市场情绪和催化因素影响，若 12 月出现海外 降息问题解决或国内政策积极定调等强力催化，行情可能提前启动。 春季躁动期间，小盘股及科技板块表现突出，TMT 板块（计算机、电子、 通信）胜率高、弹性大，机械、化工、军工板块胜率相近但弹性稍弱。 节前防御性策略偏多，节后上行趋势更明确，春季躁动期间应重点关注 科技和高端制造领域。 长期持仓者可关注具备全球竞争优势的传统行业龙头企业，即"奔马资 产"，受益于外需上行和国内制造业政策支持，目前估值较低。 年底窗口期可关注低拥挤度标的，以及险资开门红增量带来的质量红利 和周期股，全年看好受益于外需提升及"十五五"规划重点任务的奔马 资产组合。 Q&A 目前市场对明年（2026 年）牛市的预期如何？短期内有哪些因素可能影响市 场表现？ 春季躁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound opportunity following a period of panic due to tariff impacts [2] - The report highlights a positive performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy was introduced [2] Overall Assessment - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to wait for opportunities to buy on dips. It notes that liquidity-driven adjustments have stabilized, with certain asset classes like TMT and precious metals leading the rebound [3][7] - The report anticipates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will further bolster market confidence, despite short-term investor caution in domestic sectors like lithium batteries and storage [3][7] Configuration Direction - The report advises a gradual investment strategy based on economic expectations and valuation attractiveness, focusing on quality dividends and cyclical opportunities in sectors such as real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [4][9] - It identifies four key areas for medium-term investment: technology (AI trends), high-end manufacturing (global investment cycle), consumer (high-quality overseas profits), and resource commodities (supply-side dynamics) [4][9] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks across various sectors, including TCL Electronics, Action Education, Anjuke Food, Petty Co., Chengda Pharmaceutical, Haiguang Information, Lixing Co., Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, and China Resources Mixc Living [4][5]