浙商证券研报指出，中国太保是上海国资委背景的唯一上市险企，长航转型纵深推进与Web3领域的前 瞻布局有望带来业绩与估值的戴维斯双击。超预期点，保险行业战略重要性提升，行业β凸显，太保在 寿险方面的长航转型、上海国资委的战略支持及Web3 领域布局有较大预期差。2026年人民币资产有望 进一步迎来系统性重估，资本市场改革政策持续发力，中国权益市场有望维持慢牛行情，险企资产端的 投资收益或持续受益增厚。随着内外部转型的纵深推进，太保寿险新业务价值（NBV）将实现强劲增 长。当前太保股价对应2025年PEV为0.67x，位置仍处于历史较低区间；太保估值相比同业处于低位。 按2026年0.9x PEV进行估值，对应目标价60.85元，空间27％，予以"买入"评级。 ...

来源：第一财经 1月5日上午，上证指数高开高走，放量上涨之后再次突破4000点大关，沪深京三地半天成交1.65万亿 元。 上证指数上涨1.07%，中午报收4011点，科创50指数上涨4.05%，中午报收1399点。 "春季躁动"有所提前，牛市格局并未改变。有业内人士称，具体原因包括人民币稳步上涨，国内流动性 宽松以及经济复苏预期向好，政策面依然偏积极，保险和ETF等资金有继续加仓意愿，预计1月A股行情 依然继续向好。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，当前A股基本面保持稳健，政策环境与流动性条件 均较为有利。人民币汇率稳定及国内经济复苏持续推进，对市场形成支撑。跨年行情通常受益于年底资 金回流、企业盈利预期改善及政策支持，今年亦呈现类似特征。半导体、人工智能、新能源等新兴产业 板块值得关注，上述领域或成为推动市场上行的重要力量。随着2026年度财政及货币政策逐步明朗，投 资者信心有望增强，并为跨年行情提供动力。在当前背景下，尽管市场可能会有短期波动，但整体趋势 仍然向好。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭称，跨年后A股升势有望延续，年底流动性紧张局面缓解，资金或加速流入股 市，建议重点关注人工智能相关标的 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 1月5日早盘，市场高开高走。时隔34个交易日，上证指数盘中重回4000点。截至收盘，沪指涨 1.07%，深成指涨1.87%，创业板指涨2.15%。 板块来看，脑机接口概念爆发，商业航天概念反复活跃，保险板块走强；下跌方面，海南自贸概念集 体大跌，海南发展跌停。 全市场超4000只个股上涨，其中98只个股涨停。沪深两市半日成交额1.64万亿元，较上个交易日放 量3238亿。 想过会有新年开门红，但没想到能这么红！ 今天（1月5日），A股跳空高开，成交放量。 沪指 于10:19:45触及4004.04点， 时隔34个交易日重回 4000点关口。截至上午收盘，报4011.45点。 如此强势表现，也让沪指12连阳的新纪录几乎"板上钉钉 " 。 尽管本文完稿于午间，沪指能否收盘站上4000点尚有一些不确定性。 但即便午后有回落， 市场向好的趋 势——或者说"慢牛"，始终没有动摇。 数据显示，同类规模最大的A500ETF华泰柏瑞，早盘创出历史新高，成交额超110亿元。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额( | 年初至今 | | -- ...

证券研究报告 财通证券 幸运用可红 2026年1月投资策略 SAC: S0160523030003 SAC: S0160522030002 SAC: S0160524070004 SAC: S0160524070003 : 2026年1月4日 核心观点 回顾：长期研判：2025H2策略《蓄力新高》提示长期机会，上证指数一度破4000，2026Y策略《奔马资产，策马逐牛》拥抱"奔马资产"（全球竞争力龙头），领军价值重值。中期 节奏分析：11月初《如何布局年底政策窗口期？》提示年底可能偏震荡观望，12月初《春季疑动的十词十答》前瞻提示已基本筑底、月底可能启动, 慢牛才近半，春季可能开门红，提示积极布局春季跟动行情。 1）长期-牛市有僧化：①中国政策看，对全球局势有信心，刘经济/新质支持态度坚定，方案从政府支持转向放权给市场、预计更有活力；2美国政策看，宽财政+贯货币趋势明确，今 年修复趋势大哪率，同时对华态度可能进一步缓和：3美股映南看，去年11-12月科技估值讨论+降息预期担优等利空消化告一段落；9新增资金看，预计公募发行复苏，险资增量可期 (详见《奔马资产，策马逐牛》）。⑤对比历史牛市，本轮催化可能强于201 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing volatility in global capital markets and how different investment strategies are performing differently, emphasizing that ordinary investors can accumulate wealth through dedication and market engagement [1] - Three experienced investors shared their practical experiences and strategies at the Xueqiu Carnival, highlighting the importance of adapting investment strategies based on market conditions and personal reflections on past performance [1] Group 2 - The defensive nature of low-risk investments can be assessed through yield calculations, while stock investments should focus on minimizing capital loss by selecting stocks with limited downside and significant upside potential [3][6] - The selling logic for stocks includes both active and passive strategies, with active selling triggered by event-driven changes or slowing performance, and passive selling adhering to strict stop-loss and take-profit rules [6] Group 3 - Reflections on 2025 investments reveal missed opportunities and the importance of decisive action, with lessons learned about the need for independent judgment and avoiding external influences [8][9] - Key investment trends for 2026 include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and the potential for commodity price increases driven by currency fluctuations [10] Group 4 - Ordinary investors are advised to prioritize loss avoidance over daily profit, with strategies focusing on avoiding overvalued stocks, managing liquidity risks, and maintaining a balanced mindset during market fluctuations [16][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of a disciplined approach to investing, including time investment in learning, recognizing personal biases, and focusing on core investment areas [15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to outperform the Hong Kong stock market in the medium term, driven by factors such as liquidity advantages, international monetary order restructuring, and the revaluation of RMB assets [1][6]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, the A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.2%, the CSI 300 by 9.0%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 increasing by 26.0% and 22.5% respectively. In contrast, the Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.7% [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The A-share market benefits from high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The hardware sector, particularly semiconductors and electronics, is a strong point for A-shares, while Hong Kong's strengths lie in large internet companies [3][4]. Liquidity Factors - The A-share market is experiencing increased liquidity due to active participation from individual investors, with margin trading balances rising from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December. Additionally, the trend of "deposit migration" and the activation of bank wealth management products are contributing to this liquidity [4][5]. Overseas Influences - The Hong Kong market is more susceptible to overseas factors, including international liquidity and trade policies. Recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong compared to A-shares, which have shown greater resilience [5][6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to maintain its relative advantages, particularly as AI technology begins to see industrial application in 2024. Key areas of focus include computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing, with a continued emphasis on domestic production [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to outperform the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025 due to factors such as increased incremental capital, restructuring of international monetary order, and favorable policies that benefit A-share sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, the A-share market showed a significant performance advantage, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.2%, the CSI 300 by 9.0%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 by 26.0% and 22.5% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index only increased by 2.8% and 1.7% [2]. - The leading sectors in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were similar, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and electrical equipment [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - A-share advantages stem from high growth in sectors like hard technology and new energy, with A-shares benefiting more from the domestic economic recovery compared to Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The A-share market has a stronger focus on hardware sectors such as semiconductors and electronics, while Hong Kong stocks are more represented by large internet companies [3]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The A-share market has seen increased liquidity due to active participation from individual investors, with margin trading balances rising from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December [4]. - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with non-bank deposits maintaining high growth rates, contributing to the liquidity in the A-share market [4]. Group 4: Overseas Factors - The Hong Kong market is more sensitive to overseas factors, including international liquidity and trade policies, which have led to greater volatility compared to A-shares [5]. - Recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade tensions have had a more pronounced negative impact on the Hong Kong market, while A-shares demonstrated resilience during these periods [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain its advantages in the medium term, particularly in hardware sectors related to AI and cloud computing, as these areas are projected to see increased industrial application [6]. - Continued liquidity support from long-term capital inflows and favorable policies is anticipated to sustain A-share market activity [6]. - The restructuring of international monetary order and the potential for improved U.S.-China trade relations may further enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as increased domestic capital inflow, restructuring of international monetary order, and favorable policies for certain sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.2%, and the CSI 300 increased by 9.0%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index only gained 2.8% during the same period [1]. - The growth of the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 was significant, with increases of 26.0% and 22.5% respectively, highlighting the strong performance of growth-oriented stocks in A-shares [1]. Reasons for A-share Outperformance - **Fundamentals**: A-shares have advantages in high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The report notes that A-shares are more focused on hardware sectors like semiconductors and electronics, while Hong Kong stocks are more represented by large internet companies [2]. - **Liquidity**: The report highlights that the active participation of individual investors and the inflow of medium to long-term funds have provided A-shares with additional liquidity. The margin trading balance increased from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December [2][4]. - **Overseas Factors**: A-shares are less affected by overseas liquidity and trade policy risks compared to Hong Kong stocks, which have a higher proportion of foreign investment. The report notes that recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong stocks [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that A-shares will continue to maintain their relative advantages in the medium term, particularly as AI technology begins to see more widespread industrial application. Key areas of focus include computing power, cloud computing, and domestic production [4]. - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain active, with the potential for further inflows from bank wealth management products and institutional investors [4]. - The restructuring of the international monetary order and the revaluation of Chinese assets are expected to further support the performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant growth, with the ChiNext Index rising by 47% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 43% by the end of September [1][2] - The current market rally is attributed to issues within the US dollar system, leading to a revaluation of RMB assets [3][10] - The US debt situation has deteriorated, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 120.8% and external debt nearing 90% of GDP, raising concerns about the safety of US Treasury bonds [8][10] Group 2 - The Chinese economy is showing resilience, with advancements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, where self-developed drugs have increased from 4% to 42% of the pipeline [12][14] - Recent US-China trade negotiations have yielded unexpected results, including tariff reductions on certain tech products and new agreements on agricultural purchases, indicating a mutual understanding of the costs of trade conflicts [17][19] - The rise in rare earth prices reflects China's strengthened position in strategic resource pricing, positively impacting related industries and the stock market [20][22] Group 3 - The shift in asset pricing dynamics is evident, with the Chinese bond market becoming a new benchmark, as the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index has increased from 4% to 7% when calculated against Chinese bonds [24] - Global investment patterns are changing, with long-term funds beginning to allocate more towards RMB assets, moving away from the previously imbalanced allocation favoring US assets [24][26] - The current market conditions represent a historic opportunity for asset value reconfiguration, as the RMB assets are being liberated from the constraints of the US dollar system [29][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan is undervalued by 39.2% according to the Big Mac Index, and the current economic environment presents a critical opportunity for the revaluation of yuan assets, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the low valuation of A-shares [1][3] - The potential for yuan valuation recovery is widely recognized in the market, with estimates of undervaluation ranging from 10% to 40%, supported by China's strong trade relationships and expected capital inflows [3] - The current economic conditions, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the low valuation of A-shares, create a favorable environment for the revaluation of yuan assets, suggesting a shift in asset pricing dynamics [3] Group 2 - The path for capital repatriation is complicated by the "dual-track" nature of US-China relations, with recent trade negotiations providing temporary optimism but underlying geopolitical tensions remaining a significant risk [4] - The internationalization of the yuan has established a safety buffer, as evidenced by the rise of CIPS and bilateral currency swap networks, which facilitate capital flows independent of traditional channels [6] - Investment strategies should balance opportunities and risks, focusing on currency-sensitive assets in the short term while aligning with the long-term goal of upgrading the manufacturing sector [6]