西式快餐主流连锁品牌均披露了清晰的拓店规划，其中披萨、汉堡作为奶酪用量最大的两大核心品类， 将随门店网络的持续扩张，进一步释放对奶酪原料的稳定需求。目前该细分渠道中外资占据较高市场份 额，公司相关产品正逐步实现国产替代，公司2025年上半年餐饮工业系列收入已超8亿元，保持良好增 长态势。 公司判断，国内奶价上涨需以奶酪行业规模化发展为前提。从国内市场供需格局看，农业农村部、中国 奶业协会等权威机构明确指出，我国奶业长期面临"生产增长与消费提振失衡"的结构性矛盾——近年奶 牛养殖规模化水平持续提升，原奶产量长期保持增长态势，整体产能规模已突破4,000万吨大关；而消 费端持续疲弱，人均乳制品消费量仅为世界平均水平的1/3，以液态奶为主的消费结构单一，奶酪等深 加工产品渗透率低，导致原料奶阶段性供过于求成为常态，奶价自2022年起连续三年下行。 从行业规律来看，乳制品深加工程度越高，越能有效消化奶源增量、带动上游奶价合理回升，本质上是 奶酪等新消费场景拓展对产业链的正向拉动。结合国内实际，预计如果未来国内奶价上涨将是渐进式过 程，不会出现剧烈波动。 即使国内奶价未来有上涨的趋势，但在奶源供应链方面，公司得到了控股 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese cheese industry features a mix of leading companies and regional players, with Miaokelan Duo being the only listed company focused solely on cheese products, dominating the retail cheese stick and catering ingredient markets [1][6] - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu leverage their channel and capital advantages to expand their cheese offerings, although cheese remains a minor segment compared to liquid milk [1][6] - Regional dairy companies such as Guangming, Sanyuan, and Tianrun focus on liquid milk as their core business while expanding into cheese as a supplementary category, targeting local markets and catering channels [1][6] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of children's snacks, while opportunities in catering and adult cheese products remain underexplored [6][11] Company Overview - **Miaokelan Duo (600882.SH)**: The leading company in the domestic cheese industry, focusing on cheese sticks and mozzarella cheese, with a strong brand influence and a balanced approach to retail and catering channels [3][6] - **Yili (600887.SH)**: A major player in the dairy sector, primarily focused on liquid milk, with cheese products like "Yili Children's Cheese Sticks" contributing to its growth, although they represent a small portion of overall revenue [3][6] - **Tianrun Dairy (600419.SH)**: A regional player in Xinjiang, focusing on yogurt and low-temperature milk, recently expanding into cheese products, but with limited scale [3][6] - **Guangming Dairy (600597.SH)**: A comprehensive dairy company with a focus on liquid milk and yogurt, offering cheese products but with a need to increase their business share [3][6] - **Sanyuan Dairy (600429.SH)**: A well-established dairy company in Beijing, primarily selling low-temperature fresh milk and milk powder, with cheese products mainly sold through catering channels [3][6] - **Huangshi Group (002329.SZ)**: A regional player in Guangxi, exploring cheese products but still in the early stages with limited market share [3][6] - **Yantang Dairy (002732.SZ)**: A regional company in Guangdong, focusing on low-temperature dairy products, with cheese offerings primarily targeting children [3][6] - **New Dairy (002946.SZ)**: A subsidiary of New Hope, focusing on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, with cheese products still in the exploratory phase [3][6] - **Panda Dairy (300898.SZ)**: A leader in the condensed milk sector, expanding into cheese products mainly for catering, but with limited innovation [3][6] Financial Performance - Yili and Mengniu lead the industry in revenue, achieving 115.4 billion yuan and 94 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with most companies maintaining gross margins above 14% [6][7] - The highest gross margin is reported by H&H International at 60.65%, while Tianrun Dairy, Guangming Dairy, and Pinwa Foods have margins below 20% [6][7] - Earnings per share show significant variation, with Yili at 1.33 yuan, followed by Panda Dairy, Guangming Dairy, Yantang Dairy, and New Dairy, while smaller companies like Miaokelan Duo and Tianrun Dairy report lower earnings [10][11] Market Dynamics - The cheese industry in China is experiencing a tiered development, with Miaokelan Duo as the core leader, while Yili and Mengniu focus on children's cheese products [6][11] - Regional companies like Guangming and Sanyuan are concentrating on local markets, while others like Huangshi and Yantang are testing niche cheese products with limited scale [6][11] - The market is characterized by a reliance on imported raw materials and intense competition, necessitating innovation and localization of supply chains for future growth [6][11] Strategic Planning - Leading companies are enhancing their supply chain integration and focusing on differentiated innovation, while regional brands are honing in on local market needs [14][19] - Miaokelan Duo aims to deepen its market presence in children's cheese and expand into adult health snacks, while Yili plans to leverage its channel advantages to grow its cheese segment [17][19] - Companies like Tianrun and Guangming are exploring unique product offerings and regional partnerships to strengthen their market positions [17][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The cheese industry is experiencing an improvement in competitive landscape, with a significant growth potential compared to overseas markets. The market size is expected to reach 300-400 billion yuan in the medium term [8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and breaking into new consumer segments, particularly in the C-end market, while leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [8]. - The collaboration with Mengniu is expected to enhance the B-end business growth, capitalizing on the rising demand in Western fast food and ready-to-drink markets [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 53.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The cheese industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with a market size of 93.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.5% year-on-year [15][17]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with the CR5 of the cheese industry expected to rise to 63.7% in 2024, indicating a consolidation of market share among leading brands [17][19]. 2. C-end Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cheese+" strategy, focusing on small packaging and healthy cheese snacks, while exploring new consumption scenarios such as baking and breakfast [8][35]. - The C-end business is expected to diversify beyond children's cheese sticks, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% for ready-to-eat nutrition products in 2024 [8]. 3. B-end Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its B-end business, achieving breakthroughs in five major channels including Western cuisine and tea drinks, supported by Mengniu's resources [8][35]. - The integration of Mengniu's cheese business is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer resources, driving collaborative growth in the B-end market [8]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 53.7 billion yuan, 60.2 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company expects to achieve a PE ratio of 61, 42, and 31 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [8].

Core Insights - 2025 is a milestone year for Miaokelando and the entire Chinese cheese industry, marking ten years since the company entered the cheese market and significantly contributing to the "cheese enlightenment" in China [1] - The company aims to enhance the domestic cheese industry by increasing technological investment and developing a complete cheese supply chain, focusing on high-quality local milk sources [2] - The founder believes that the cheese category is emerging as a high-value segment in the context of China's economic growth and consumer trends towards health and quality [2] Industry Development - The Chinese cheese market is expected to exceed a trillion yuan, driven by four significant trends: integration with traditional Chinese cuisine, rapid development of "two oils and one cheese" (cream, butter, and original cheese), increased demand for solid dairy products, and opportunities for domestic innovation and product development [3] - The company plans to implement "two core strategies" and "five strategic guarantees" to attract more enterprises into the cheese sector and expand the market [3]

Core Insights - The cheese consumption in China has reached parity with Japan, but per capita consumption remains low at 0.2 kg compared to approximately 2 kg in Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, indicating long-term growth potential for the cheese market in China [1][2] - The cheese industry is currently one of the most dynamic and promising segments within China's dairy sector, driven by favorable policies, industry upgrades, and rising consumer demand for healthy, high-protein foods [1][2][3] Industry Development - Recent policies, including consumption and fertility incentives, have created opportunities for the cheese industry [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued plans to enhance the competitiveness of the dairy industry, emphasizing cheese production technology and product development tailored to Chinese tastes [2][3] - The cheese retail market in China was valued at 131 billion yuan in 2021, with an expected growth rate of 14.5% from 2022 to 2026 [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese Cheese Association aims for national cheese production to reach 500,000 tons and the retail market to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2025 [3] - The cheese market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by economic development and increasing consumer awareness of dairy products [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The cheese sector is attracting numerous entrants due to high profit margins, leading to increased competition and diversification of cheese products [4] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is a leading player in the cheese market, with projected revenues of 4.844 billion yuan in 2024 and a significant increase in net profit [4][5] Strategic Goals - Miao Ke Lan Duo has set a revenue target of no less than 19.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with annual targets of 5.6 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.8 billion yuan respectively [5] - The company plans to innovate its product offerings, enhance brand image, and optimize distribution channels to achieve its strategic goals [5][6] Future Outlook - The cheese market in China is expected to undergo a significant transformation, with potential for per capita consumption to increase by 6 to 7 times as consumer awareness grows [6] - The industry is poised for a "golden development period" as it transitions from a focus on liquid dairy products to a more balanced consumption of cheese and milk [6]