Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.95 CNY, reflecting a calculated equity value of 169 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's industrial catering business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for margin improvement in single product categories. The overall gross margin has decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin industrial catering products, but there is substantial room for improvement in individual product margins as domestic raw material substitution increases [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion CNY, up 86.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 13.3 billion CNY (+9.6%) and net profit was 0.5 billion CNY (+53.1%) [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.602 billion CNY, 6.485 billion CNY, and 7.482 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.7%, 15.8%, and 15.4% [8]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.5%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of lower-margin industrial catering products [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively [2][8].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The cheese industry is experiencing an improvement in competitive landscape, with a significant growth potential compared to overseas markets. The market size is expected to reach 300-400 billion yuan in the medium term [8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and breaking into new consumer segments, particularly in the C-end market, while leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [8]. - The collaboration with Mengniu is expected to enhance the B-end business growth, capitalizing on the rising demand in Western fast food and ready-to-drink markets [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 53.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The cheese industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with a market size of 93.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.5% year-on-year [15][17]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with the CR5 of the cheese industry expected to rise to 63.7% in 2024, indicating a consolidation of market share among leading brands [17][19]. 2. C-end Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cheese+" strategy, focusing on small packaging and healthy cheese snacks, while exploring new consumption scenarios such as baking and breakfast [8][35]. - The C-end business is expected to diversify beyond children's cheese sticks, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% for ready-to-eat nutrition products in 2024 [8]. 3. B-end Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its B-end business, achieving breakthroughs in five major channels including Western cuisine and tea drinks, supported by Mengniu's resources [8][35]. - The integration of Mengniu's cheese business is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer resources, driving collaborative growth in the B-end market [8]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 53.7 billion yuan, 60.2 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company expects to achieve a PE ratio of 61, 42, and 31 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in its cheese products and effective cost management strategies [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.1-103.1% [2]. - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 37.6-62.6 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8-89.5% [2]. Business Strategy - The company employs a dual strategy focusing on both B2B (restaurant industrial series) and B2C (instant nutrition series and family dining series) to strengthen its position in the cheese market [4]. - New product launches include cheese sticks and various snack items, with a focus on consumer-oriented innovation [4]. Market Position - According to Kantar Consumer Index, the company's cheese sales market share exceeded 37% in 2024, increasing to over 39% in Q1 2025, maintaining its leading position in the market [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the combination of new product development and channel expansion will support continued growth, with potential for profit elasticity to be released as operations recover [6].

2025 年 7 月 12 日 公司研究 奶酪消费趋势向好，25H1 归母净利实现高增 从市场地位看，以凯度消费者指数为例，2024 年妙可蓝多奶酪销售额市占率超 过 37%，25Q1 销售额市占率提升至 39%以上，稳居市场第一。 未来随着新品驱动和渠道扩张，公司 BC 两端有望共同发力支撑增长；经营恢复 下，公司利润弹性有望释放。 盈利预测、估值与评级：我们维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测分别为 2.16/3.24/4.57 亿元，折合 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.42/0.63/0.89 元，对应 PE 分别为 67x/45x/32x。公司 C 端奶酪龙头地位稳固，奶酪行业增长空间较大， 我们维持"增持"评级。 ——妙可蓝多（600882.SH）2025 年半年报预告点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报预告，经追溯口径预计 25H1 实现归母净利润 1.2-1.45 亿元，同比增长 68.1-103.1%；预计实现扣非归母净利润 0.9-1.15 亿元， 同比增长 58.2%-102.2%。其中经追溯口径预计 25Q2 实现归母净利润 3760-6260 万元，同 ...

Group 1 - The company continues to innovate and expand channels, leading the domestic cheese industry with both C-end and B-end products, aiming for a revenue target of 10 billion [1] - The core cheese business is driven by both C-end and B-end, with three main product series: ready-to-eat nutritional cheese, family table cheese, and catering industrial cheese [1] - In the ready-to-eat nutritional cheese series, the company launched several new products in the first half of 2025, focusing on expanding the adult cheese market [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes the layout and deep cultivation of e-commerce platforms, achieving significant results during the 618 shopping festival, ranking first in the cheese/dairy category across all platforms [2] - New products such as cheese cups and cheese triangles performed exceptionally well, with strong sales for the dual-brand cheese sticks and other cheese products [2] - The company is collaborating with high-potential offline channels like Sam's Club and Hema, showcasing its product and brand strength in the cheese sector [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 5.636 billion, 6.549 billion, and 7.608 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.35%, 16.21%, and 16.17% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 235 million, 342 million, and 436 million, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 107.15%, 45.47%, and 27.41% [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with corresponding PE ratios of 68X, 47X, and 37X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Miaokelando (SH600882) achieved a remarkable 115% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating a strong internal growth trend despite industry challenges [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter, Miaokelando reported revenue of approximately 1.233 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 6%, with cheese business revenue growing by more than 17% [1] - The company's net profit growth rate reached a three-year high for the first quarter, contrasting with previous years where net profit growth was sluggish despite rising revenues [1] Industry Context - The domestic dairy market is facing challenges, with a 2.3% decline in overall dairy sales and a 3.7% drop in liquid milk sales in 2024 [2] - Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported significant declines in liquid milk revenue, with decreases of 12%, 11%, and 9% respectively [2] - The price of fresh milk continues to decline, with a reported price of 3.08 yuan per kilogram in March 2025, down 1.0% month-on-month and 13.1% year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - Miaokelando's growth strategy includes product innovation, expanding consumption scenarios, and cost control [3][4] - The company has accelerated the launch of new products, diversifying its offerings to include various cheese formats and targeting both children and adults [3] - The expansion of consumption scenarios includes partnerships with restaurants and food brands to incorporate cheese into various dishes, enhancing market penetration [3] - Cost control measures involve sourcing domestic milk to reduce expenses and focusing on developing core products to streamline operations and improve margins [5][6] Value Chain Development - The company emphasizes the importance of managing the entire cheese production value chain, including the utilization of by-products like whey to create high-value products [6] - The development of high-value whey protein products is seen as a key opportunity for growth in the sports nutrition market, which is currently dominated by imports [6] - The focus on deep processing of cheese is expected to enhance the value chain and unlock significant industry potential, transforming the dairy sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a positive turnaround in revenue growth for Q1 2025, driven by improved competitive dynamics in the cheese market and synergies from the merger with Mengniu [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.233 billion yuan, with an adjusted year-on-year growth of 6.26%, marking the first quarter of positive revenue growth since Q4 2022 [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 82 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 114.88%, while the adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was 65 million yuan, up 110.23% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 31.49%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 6.68%, up 3.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on innovation in the cheese snack sector, targeting both children and adults, and enhancing the penetration of domestic cheese products in the B-end and family dining markets [2] - The establishment of a domestic cheese supply chain using local milk is seen as a foundational strategy for long-term competitiveness over the next five to ten years [2] - The company has launched several new products in the cheese snack category, including cheese balls and cheese triangles, and aims to strengthen collaboration with Mengniu in both B-end and C-end businesses [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.628 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.730 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.18%, 17.10%, and 17.30% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be 241 million, 350 million, and 476 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 112.37%, 45.12%, and 36.00% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 58X, 40X, and 30X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]