赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [妙Ta可bl蓝e_多Sto(c6k0A0n8d8Ra2n)k] 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] BC 双轮驱动，提质增效显利润 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 25.67 亿元， 同比+7.98%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+86.27%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比+80.10%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同 比+9.62%；归母净利润 5057 万元，同比+53.06%。 点评： 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 奶酪推 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The cheese industry is experiencing an improvement in competitive landscape, with a significant growth potential compared to overseas markets. The market size is expected to reach 300-400 billion yuan in the medium term [8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and breaking into new consumer segments, particularly in the C-end market, while leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [8]. - The collaboration with Mengniu is expected to enhance the B-end business growth, capitalizing on the rising demand in Western fast food and ready-to-drink markets [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 53.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The cheese industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with a market size of 93.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.5% year-on-year [15][17]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with the CR5 of the cheese industry expected to rise to 63.7% in 2024, indicating a consolidation of market share among leading brands [17][19]. 2. C-end Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cheese+" strategy, focusing on small packaging and healthy cheese snacks, while exploring new consumption scenarios such as baking and breakfast [8][35]. - The C-end business is expected to diversify beyond children's cheese sticks, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% for ready-to-eat nutrition products in 2024 [8]. 3. B-end Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its B-end business, achieving breakthroughs in five major channels including Western cuisine and tea drinks, supported by Mengniu's resources [8][35]. - The integration of Mengniu's cheese business is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer resources, driving collaborative growth in the B-end market [8]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 53.7 billion yuan, 60.2 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company expects to achieve a PE ratio of 61, 42, and 31 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has released its Q1 2025 report, showing a significant improvement in profitability due to the release of cost benefits [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 8.315 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.202 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights steady growth across major product categories and strong performance in online channels, with online revenue increasing by 43% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from both cost and reform dividends, driving market share growth through B2B and B2C strategies [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 29.7 billion, 32.8 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 11% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 7 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.6 billion yuan, with consistent growth rates of 11% [7] - The report indicates an expected increase in diluted EPS from 1.26 yuan in 2025 to 1.55 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in earnings [7]

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.651 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.52% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 669 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.19% [1] Operational Analysis - In Q4 2024, all product categories saw a sequential acceleration due to improved downstream restaurant demand, with revenues for recovery, light cooking, and beverage distribution at 342 million, 320 million, and 37 million respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 19.2%, 14.0%, and 15.5% [2] - The company expanded its offline channels and increased new product launches, resulting in a net increase of 44 distributors throughout 2024 [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The overall gross margin declined in 2024 due to intensified competition in the restaurant market, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 35.52% and 32.61%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 4.57 percentage points and 0.57 percentage points [3] - The company improved cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios showing varied changes [3] - A significant decrease in government subsidies in Q1 2025, amounting to approximately 10.29 million, also impacted profit [4] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue recovery in 2025, driven by a dual approach focusing on both B2B and B2C segments, with anticipated net profits of 280 million, 330 million, and 370 million for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 22%, 16%, and 13% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the expected improvement in profit margins due to new customer acquisition and product mix enhancement [4]

由餐饮供应链公司向食品供应链公司拓展，发力商超及便利店渠道，有望成为新的成长曲线。国内商超 逐渐连锁化，同时区域连锁超市也从传统模式向选品模式转型，强调以消费者需求为导向，严格把控商 品质量。选品式经营对于供应商的产品创新能力、定制化以及快速反应能力提出了更高的要求。在此背 景下，公司依托品牌背书和供应链优势，凭借优秀的产品研发创新能力以及多年服务大B 客户的经验， 有望在这一轮商超渠道演变进化过程中在食品和食材方向成为最大的受益者之一。目前已逐步与部分头 部大型商超建立合作关系，未来随着消费场景的拓宽，有望成为公司另一增长曲线。 盈利预测：我们预计24-26 年实现营收26.01/29.71/34.25 亿元，归母净利润2.37/2.82/3.45 亿元，PE 分别 为24.39/20.49/16.74x,. 我们选取日辰股份、千味央厨、天味食品作为可比公司进行估值比较，公司估值 低于可比公司均值，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期风险；行业竞争加剧风险；食品安全风险。 宝立食品以战略转型与研发驱动构筑竞争壁垒，实现从单一代工到 BC 双轮驱动的行业领军地位。公司 自2001 年创立以来 ...