Group 1 - The election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's new Prime Minister has led to market speculation about a potential "Abenomics 2.0" revival, which previously resulted in a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2] - Japan's September exports showed a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, ending a four-month decline, although it fell short of the expected 4.6% [1] - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a nearly 15% increase since the resignation of former Prime Minister Shishiro, outperforming the S&P 500's 3.9% gain during the same period [2][3] Group 2 - High expectations for Takichi's economic policies include expansionary fiscal measures, collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan, and a focus on technological innovation [2][3] - Concerns about the stability of the new government and the implementation of Takichi's policies have led to profit-taking in the stock market, with significant declines in defense and technology sector stocks [3][4] - The newly formed coalition government faces challenges in passing budgets and legislation due to a lack of majority in the House of Representatives, which may hinder policy implementation [3][4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has come under pressure due to expectations of large-scale fiscal spending and monetary stimulus, complicating the path for potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4][5] - Market speculation indicates a reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike in October, with current odds at approximately 9%, while December's odds have risen to about 50% [5][6] - Despite a slight rebound, the yen remains near a six-day low against the dollar, reflecting ongoing market concerns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo financial market is experiencing volatility due to the unexpected announcement by the Komeito party to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to concerns about political uncertainty and potential market instability [1][2]. Market Reaction - Following the Komeito party's announcement, the Tokyo market saw significant fluctuations, with nearly 90% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange declining, and the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 491.64 points, closing lower than the previous trading day [2][3]. - The yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds rose to 1.7%, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase and the highest level in 17 years, indicating investor skepticism towards the government's fiscal policies [2][3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the dissolution of the ruling coalition could lead to a "black swan" event, where opposition parties might form a coalition government, potentially preventing the LDP's candidate, Sanae Takaichi, from becoming Prime Minister [1][3]. - The political landscape is expected to remain volatile, with further market fluctuations anticipated as the implications of the coalition's breakup unfold [3]. Economic Policy Outlook - Despite the political turmoil, Takaichi's economic policies are still under scrutiny, with a focus on aggressive fiscal expansion to stimulate growth. She aims to activate all remaining growth levers in the Japanese economy [4][5]. - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics 2.0," emphasizing monetary easing, active fiscal policy, and structural reforms, although her ability to implement these policies may be hindered by a lack of majority support in the Diet [4][5]. Economic Challenges - The incoming Prime Minister will face significant challenges, including rising living costs, public dissatisfaction, and pressures from the U.S. regarding increased investments [6][7]. - Japan's economy is grappling with persistent inflation, increasing public debt, and an aging population, all of which complicate the economic recovery efforts [6][7].

Group 1 - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan marks a significant gender breakthrough in Japanese politics and reflects the structural challenges facing Japan's political economy in the post-Abe era [1] - Takaichi's economic policy is seen as an upgraded version of "Abenomics 2.0," advocating for a combination of active fiscal policy and sustained monetary easing, including plans to eliminate temporary fuel taxes and increase subsidies for healthcare and small businesses [1][2] - The market reacted positively to Takaichi's policies, with the Nikkei index surging by 4.83% on October 6, breaking the 48,000-point barrier and reaching a historical high, indicating optimism about liquidity expansion [2] Group 2 - In contrast to the stock market's positive response, the yen experienced a significant depreciation against the dollar, with a nearly 2% drop in a single day, reflecting deep concerns about the yen's future [4] - The depreciation of the yen complicates U.S.-Japan relations, as it undermines the effectiveness of the 15% tariffs imposed by the U.S. and raises questions about the stability of trade agreements established by previous administrations [4] - Japan's long-standing zero or negative interest rate policy is being challenged as the Bank of Japan has begun normalizing monetary policy, with interest rates rising from -0.1% to 0.25% in 2024, which will increase the burden of debt servicing on the government [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female president marks a significant political shift, with potential implications for the economy and financial markets [1][3]. Economic Policy - Sanna Takashi's economic stance aligns with the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, promoting "Abenomics 2.0," which combines active fiscal policy with loose monetary policy [3]. - Her plan includes eliminating temporary taxes on gasoline and diesel to reduce government revenue while increasing subsidies for healthcare and small businesses, leading to a "revenue reduction and expenditure increase" fiscal expansion [3][5]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates twice in 2024, from -0.1% to 0.25%, and further to 0.5% in early 2025, which will increase government debt servicing costs [5]. Market Reaction - Following Takashi's election, the Nikkei index surged by 4.83%, surpassing 48,000 points, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity expansion [7]. - Conversely, the yen depreciated by 1.83% against the dollar, breaking the 150 mark for the first time since July 31, indicating market concerns about the yen's future [7][10]. International Relations - The yen's depreciation complicates U.S.-Japan relations, as U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for yen appreciation to reduce the trade deficit, while the current situation undermines the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs on Japan [10]. - Takashi's administration may reconsider previous trade agreements, potentially leading to new negotiations or adjustments to existing tariffs, which could further strain U.S.-Japan relations [10][12]. Challenges Ahead - While "Abenomics 2.0" may provide short-term boosts to the stock market, the accumulation of debt risks, increased currency volatility, and rising trade tensions with the U.S. present significant challenges for Takashi's administration [12]. - The broader implications of her policies will influence Japan's role in the Asia-Pacific economic landscape and could have lasting effects on global economic dynamics [12].

这种基层压力也传导至自民党上层，导致上层态度都愈发分化。最终除了林芳正等少数死忠外，石破茂 政权内部的关键人士也纷纷跳船。大势已去的石破茂不得不宣布自己将辞去职务。 2025年10月4日下午，高市早苗在第二轮自民党总裁选举中，击败前首相小泉纯一郎之子小泉进次郎。 此次总裁选举的直接诱因，是日本首相石破茂在年中的选举中成为参众两院的"双少数政府"。在党内的 逼宫下，石破茂不得不宣布辞职，以承担败选的政治责任。 大部分舆论在选前更看好小泉进次郎，然而出人意料的是，高市早苗在第一轮就展现出基层民意的强大 支持。在麻生太郎的及时跳船下，高市早苗当选为新一届自民党总裁。 秦失其鹿，天下共逐之。媒体很快将焦点集中在小泉进次郎和高市早苗两人身上。在去年的总裁选第一 轮中，高市早苗就以181票位居第一；石破茂以154票位居第二；小泉进次郎以134票位居第三。在第二 轮选举中，小泉选择支持石破茂。石破茂最终以215票战胜高市早苗的194票。 高市早苗的当选，意味着岸田文雄时代以来的温和中立宣告结束；也宣告自民党上层的精英思路破产。 正如特朗普在2016年赢得共和党初选一样，自民党的基层支持者也发出来自己的明确信号：日本自民党 ...