1999年以来一直是日本执政联盟成员的公明党对高市的政治倾向非常担忧，他们希望自民党能就如何处 理黑金问题等做出明确的回答，以解除公明党的担忧。根据新华社最新消息，日本公明党10月10日正式 向自民党传达了退出执政联盟的决定。日本媒体认为，此举为首相指名选举增添了新的不确定性。除了 公明党，自民党还需要寻找另一个政党来扩大执政联盟，从而取得国会的稳定多数。由于国民民主党在 经济政策方面与高市的主张比较接近，所以被认为是最有可能的合作对象。如果国民民主党能参加执政 联盟，日本政府推行积极的财政政策和宽松的金融政策时所受的阻力会有所减少，市场对此会有更高的 期待，日本股价将会被进一步推高，而日元将进一步贬值。不过，由于国民民主党把公明党不脱离执政 联盟作为他们参加执政联盟的前提，因此公明党脱离执政联盟后，自民党就很难稳定地执政，而市场原 有的期待就会萎缩，日元就会升值而股市则会下跌。也就是说，随着执政联盟合纵连横的变化，日本的 经济就会出现相反的变化。 日本央行从2023年植田和男就任总裁以来，开始摆脱安倍首相以来的政府干涉，到2024年不仅解除了负 利率政策，而且还开始加息，寻求金融正常化。如果高市在出任日本首 ...

10月4日，日本自民党迎来历史性时刻——首位女性总裁高市早苗成功当选。作为右翼政治人物的代表人物，她极有可能顺利通过后续首相提名程序，从而 接替石破茂成为日本首位女首相。 这位以撒切尔夫人作为偶像的政治家，能否将"铁娘子"在英国的成功经验移植到日本政坛，时间自会给出答案，但可以确定的是，她的上台必将为日本经济 金融领域带来深刻动荡。 高市早苗的政治立场与已故前首相安倍晋三一脉相承，其核心经济政策被视为"安倍经济学2.0"。她主张的"负责任的积极财政"本质上是积极财政政策与宽 松货币政策的组合。 具体来看，她计划率先废除汽油和柴油临时税率以减少政府收入，同时扩大对医疗、中小企业的补贴投入，形成"减收增支"的财政扩张态势，此举无疑将加 剧日本政府本已严峻的财政状况。 尽管日本长期实行零利率甚至负利率政策，通过借新还旧的方式不断推迟债务到期日，使得国债利息支出长期处于低位。但随着日本逐步摆脱通缩困境，物 价上涨促使日本央行在植田和男行长任内推进政策正常化。 2024年日本央行两次加息将政策利率从-0.1%提升至0.25%，2025年初进一步调整至0.5%。利率上升导致国债利息支出不再趋近于零，利息偿还成为政府资 产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Angela Rayner due to a tax scandal has triggered a cabinet reshuffle in the UK, significantly impacting the Labour Party's political standing and leading to a rise in support for the Reform Party [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Angela Rayner's resignation forced Prime Minister Keir Starmer to initiate an emergency cabinet reshuffle involving over ten cabinet members, including several key figures [1] - The Labour Party's support has been overtaken by the Reform Party in recent polls, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape [1] - Political analysts predict that the UK may face early elections, with the current government under significant pressure from fiscal challenges, internal party divisions, and fluctuating public opinion [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Starmer government inherited a £22 billion fiscal gap from the Conservative Party and has struggled to implement effective economic improvements over the past year, leading to a credibility crisis [1] - The Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, has capitalized on the situation, claiming that traditional parties are collapsing and positioning itself as the solution to restore Britain's greatness [1] Group 3: Party Dynamics - The Reform Party's membership has surged to 240,000 within a year, marking its first entry into Parliament with four seats [1] - Labour insiders suggest that if the party performs poorly in the local elections next May, Starmer may face the possibility of being ousted [1] - The ongoing cabinet reshuffle has not alleviated the Labour Party's crisis and may instead accelerate the restructuring of the political landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called "American Party," which has drawn criticism from former President Donald Trump, who believes that a third party would only create chaos in the existing two-party system [1][3][5]. Group 1: Political Developments - Trump's response to Musk's announcement was dismissive, stating that the U.S. operates best under a two-party system and that third parties have historically failed [3][5]. - Trump expressed concern over Musk's political ambitions, suggesting that they could undermine his business responsibilities, particularly in relation to Tesla and SpaceX [5][6]. - The Democratic Party appears to welcome the rift between Trump and Musk, viewing it as a sign of disarray within Trump's political faction [6]. Group 2: Business Implications - Azoria Partners, an investment company planning to launch a fund related to Tesla, announced a delay in their project due to Musk's political involvement, indicating a conflict with his role as CEO [5]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented on Musk's unpopularity in polls, suggesting that his companies' boards might prefer him to stay away from politics [5]. - Musk previously invested nearly $300 million to support Trump's 2024 campaign, highlighting the complex relationship between Musk and political figures [5].