转自：今晚报 【日媒：#高市早苗令日本民众郁闷#】#日媒怀疑高市早苗自导自演#据参考消息，日本《东京新闻》12 月31日发表的社论，原题为《岁末有感 虽然我们迎来了宪政史上首位女首相……》，全文如下：在 《东京新闻》评选的2025年"十大新闻"中，高市早苗当选首相无疑是日本国内新闻中的头条。然而心情 郁闷之人不在少数。第一个原因就是对物价居高不下的担忧。11月的全国消费者价格指数同比增长 3.0%，已经连续51个月上涨。如果收入也一同增长当然是好事，然而统计数据显示，10月的实际工资 同比下降0.8%，已经连续10个月负增长。工资增速赶不上物价涨幅更是让那些依赖养老金生活的退休 群体直面高物价的冲击。在内阁府进行的"社会意识民意调查"中，73.1%的受访者将"物价"列为将会继 续恶化的领域，连续四年位居榜首。尽管如此，高市政府应对物价上涨的措施仍称不上得当。在2025财 年补充预算一般账户总额的18.3万亿日元(100日元约合4.47元人民币)中，仅有8.9万亿日元可被视为用来 应对物价上涨，剩余部分基本上都是用于"危机管理投资"、"增长投资"以及"加强防卫和外交能力"等高 市政府更在乎的政策。我们仍然不理解 ...

这场对峙的背后，还有美俄博弈与和平进程的僵局。12月2日的俄美会谈持续五小时，虽探讨了多个版本 的解决方案，却未达成妥协，和平"既没有更近，也没有更远"。美方最初提出的28点"和平计划"被欧洲大 幅修改，俄方认为其已偏离初衷，而欧洲则拒绝承认战场现实，双方在谈判桌上的分歧，正转化为军事层 面的相互戒备。泽连斯基政府则表态"不会接受没有乌方参与的解决方案"，进一步让局势陷入胶着 。 普京的"速决"警告，本质是战略威慑而非战争叫嚣。作为核大国，俄罗斯拥有足够的军事底气，但也深知 与欧洲开战的灾难性后果。其核心目的是迫使欧洲正视俄方的安全关切，停止通过援助乌克兰、北约东扩 等方式挤压俄战略空间。而欧洲的焦虑则源于对俄乌冲突外溢的恐惧，以及对俄罗斯军事力量的忌惮，这 种相互猜忌正在形成"安全困境"——一方的防御准备，在另一方眼中就是进攻威胁。 综上，"普京准备跟欧洲打仗"的说法是片面解读。俄方的所有准备都建立在"被动应对"的前提上，核心诉 求是推动和平谈判与保障自身安全；而欧洲的持续拱火与军备强化，才是加剧局势紧张的关键。当前俄欧 之间虽未到全面开战的地步，但误判风险正在上升，美俄会谈的僵局、俄乌战场的胶着，让任何意 ...

Group 1 - NATO's military preparations have escalated significantly, with a detailed 1200-page operational plan aimed at deploying 800,000 troops, 30,000 main battle tanks, and 120,000 armored vehicles to Eastern Europe within a month [4][23]. - The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Rubio at the NATO foreign ministers' meeting has raised concerns, as it is a rare occurrence that signals a potential strategic shift [2][11]. - NATO is transitioning from deterrence to actual military deployment, with plans for a joint military exercise involving over 50,000 troops scheduled for September 2025 [6][23]. Group 2 - The NATO Military Committee Chairman has suggested a more aggressive strategy against Russia, including the possibility of preemptive strikes, which has drawn strong criticism from Russia [6][16]. - The U.S. stance on NATO appears ambiguous, with Trump oscillating between supporting NATO and emphasizing European self-funding for defense, while also pushing for a peace plan with Ukraine [9][12]. - There is a growing divide within the EU regarding military spending, with Eastern European countries advocating for increased military capabilities, while Southern European nations express concerns over rising costs [25]. Group 3 - Russia faces significant challenges, including economic limitations and high military casualties, while still maintaining a substantial defense budget and nuclear capabilities [16][17]. - The ongoing military buildup and strategic discussions by NATO have led to a deteriorating trust between the two sides, contributing to a classic security dilemma in Eurasia [23][21]. - The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by Japan and South Korea strengthening ties with NATO, indicating a broader regional military alignment against perceived threats [19][18].

Core Insights - The global arms sales report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates that the revenue of the top 100 arms manufacturers reached a record high of $679 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1][2] - The report highlights that U.S. arms manufacturers account for nearly half of the total revenue, with 39 U.S. companies generating $334 billion, a 3.8% increase from 2023 [2] - The ongoing regional conflicts, particularly the situations in Gaza and Ukraine, are driving nations to expand their military capabilities, contributing to the surge in arms sales [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 100 arms manufacturers, 26 European companies (excluding Russia) reported a total revenue of $151 billion, marking a 13% increase [2] - Middle Eastern arms manufacturers generated $31 billion in sales, a 14% increase, with Israeli companies contributing $16.2 billion, up 16% [2] - Russian arms manufacturers saw a revenue increase of 23%, totaling $31.2 billion [2] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for arms is driven by security anxieties stemming from ongoing conflicts, leading to increased military procurement, especially in Europe [3][4] - Czech arms manufacturer Czechoslovak Group experienced a remarkable 193% revenue growth due to significant sales of ammunition to Ukraine [3] - The report suggests that the current military expansion may lead to a vicious cycle of insecurity and arms races, rather than achieving lasting peace [4][5] Global Security Context - The number of armed conflicts involving at least one country reached 61 in 2024, the highest since 1946, with Africa being the most affected region [3][4] - The UN Secretary-General has warned that rising military expenditures are not only triggering a new arms race but also putting immense pressure on national finances and development [5] - Analysts emphasize that military expansion and alliances are not effective paths to achieving lasting peace and security, advocating for enhanced diplomatic communication and multilateral cooperation [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for prolonged trade friction between China and the U.S., with the APEC meeting not necessarily being a decisive moment for resolution [1][9][11] - There is a focus on the semiconductor and rare earth sectors as central to the ongoing tensions, highlighting their importance in both capital markets and geopolitical strategies [1][8] - The article emphasizes the need for understanding technology and its evolution as a critical factor in macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of employment data, while China's consumer spending has declined, indicating economic concerns on both sides [2] - China proposed a significant increase in direct investment in the U.S. during negotiations, aiming to ease restrictions on Chinese investments and trade [3][6] - The article notes that direct investment can deepen ties between nations, potentially fostering local support for Chinese interests in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - The importance of direct dialogue between ordinary citizens of both nations is highlighted as crucial for improving bilateral relations [4] - The U.S. appears to need China's manufacturing experience, reflecting a shift in the dynamics of international trade relationships [5] - The article points out that the U.S. has implemented further restrictions on semiconductors and shipping, increasing insecurity in trade relations [7][8] Group 4 - The article discusses the security dilemma and suspicion spiral in international relations, emphasizing the lack of trust between nations [21][22] - It notes that countries are increasingly creating non-military "weapons" in trade and technology to assert their influence [22][23] - The article suggests that the U.S. has opened a "Pandora's box" in trade relations, leading to a cycle of learning and adaptation among nations [23][30] Group 5 - The article raises questions about the negotiation power dynamics between buyers and sellers in a trade conflict, suggesting that sellers may hold more leverage due to control over key resources [24][25] - It discusses the significance of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency and its implications for global trade [26][32] - The article concludes with observations on Trump's negotiation style and its impact on international relations, suggesting a decline in the credibility of threats made by the U.S. [35][36]