【环球时报报道 记者 郑璇 陈子帅】编者的话：2025年，欧洲陷入一场复合性危机：在内部，极右翼进 一步崛起与政治碎片化加剧冲击着传统治理，经济竞争力与科技投入持续下降；在外交上，欧洲一方面 高呼实现战略自主，另一方面陷入对美依赖加剧的困境。从法国的政治僵局到德国制造业优势的减弱， 从一度被排除在俄乌和谈之外到被美国公开批评"文明衰落"，欧洲在内外交困中忧心焦虑。然而，欧洲 深厚的工业与创新底蕴犹存，其未来走向并非注定黯淡，关键在于能否以断腕勇气推动内部改革，并超 越意识形态偏见，在重塑的全球格局中寻回理性与开放的合作之道。 极右翼崛起撼动旧秩序，政治碎片化加剧治理难题 回顾2025年，欧洲极右翼浪潮持续涌动，势力版图不断扩张。在德国2月举行的联邦议院（议会下院） 选举中，德国选择党以创纪录的得票率首次跃升为第二大党，紧追传统中右翼堡垒联盟党。一项11月公 布的民调则显示，德国选择党的支持率已反超联盟党，预示其在来年的德国地方选举中或将继续"开疆 拓土"。 今年5月，葡萄牙举行3年以来的第三次议会选举。尽管中右翼民主联盟赢得了最多席位，但极右翼 的"够了"党无疑成为本次选举中异军突起的最大赢家：它与中左翼社会 ...

第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 史上最大的IPO要来了？ 2025.12. 19 本文字数：188，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间18日，美国国防部表示，美国国务院已批准向北约支持与采购局出售"毒 刺"导弹的零部件及相关设备，预计价值1.361亿美元。 微信编辑 | 七三 Ad 生成 8 8 ..... the first a Hun A f in the ars ● . ...

根据最新发布的 SIPRI 全球百大军火企业榜单，印度三大国防制造巨头——HAL、BEL 和 MDSL——在过去一年实现了强劲增长，军火 收入整体上涨 8.2%，达到 75 亿美元，在全球军工地图上继续扩大存在感。 印度三大军工公司表现如何？ HAL：规模最大，但增长承压 军火收入：38 亿美元 全球排名：从第 42 名略降 年度变化：收入微跌 0.3% 尽管 HAL 同时制造民用平台，但其收入 95% 来自国防产品，依旧稳坐印度军工头号企业。 BEL：今年最大黑马，狂涨 23.6% 全球排名：从第 68 升至 第 58 位 增长动力主要来自政府下达的 雷达、电子战系统 的大量订单。 全球排名：第 91 位 作为印度潜艇与军舰的核心建造商，MDSL 的订单稳定、增幅健康。 全球军火企业表现：美国继续霸榜 军火收入：38 亿美元 年度增长：+23.6%（全印度表现最亮眼） MDSL：海军装备实力稳步提升 军火收入：11.2 亿美元 增长：+9.38% 洛克希德·马丁以 620 亿美元军火销售额稳居世界第一。 英国 BAE 系统公司排名第四。 俄罗斯 Rostec 名列第七。 中国的中航工业（AVIC）排名第八， ...

Core Insights - The global arms sales report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicates that the revenue of the top 100 arms manufacturers reached a record high of $679 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1][2] - The report highlights that U.S. arms manufacturers account for nearly half of the total revenue, with 39 U.S. companies generating $334 billion, a 3.8% increase from 2023 [2] - The ongoing regional conflicts, particularly the situations in Gaza and Ukraine, are driving nations to expand their military capabilities, contributing to the surge in arms sales [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Among the top 100 arms manufacturers, 26 European companies (excluding Russia) reported a total revenue of $151 billion, marking a 13% increase [2] - Middle Eastern arms manufacturers generated $31 billion in sales, a 14% increase, with Israeli companies contributing $16.2 billion, up 16% [2] - Russian arms manufacturers saw a revenue increase of 23%, totaling $31.2 billion [2] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for arms is driven by security anxieties stemming from ongoing conflicts, leading to increased military procurement, especially in Europe [3][4] - Czech arms manufacturer Czechoslovak Group experienced a remarkable 193% revenue growth due to significant sales of ammunition to Ukraine [3] - The report suggests that the current military expansion may lead to a vicious cycle of insecurity and arms races, rather than achieving lasting peace [4][5] Global Security Context - The number of armed conflicts involving at least one country reached 61 in 2024, the highest since 1946, with Africa being the most affected region [3][4] - The UN Secretary-General has warned that rising military expenditures are not only triggering a new arms race but also putting immense pressure on national finances and development [5] - Analysts emphasize that military expansion and alliances are not effective paths to achieving lasting peace and security, advocating for enhanced diplomatic communication and multilateral cooperation [5]

本文字数：2413，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 在经历了超过五年的停滞之后，德国经济可能正在显现复苏迹象。 2025.11.28 欧盟在近期发布的最新预测中表示，预计德国经济在2026年和2027年都将增长1.2%。 德国联邦统计局发布数据也显示，德国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）保持平稳，避免了经济衰退。与 此同时，德国9月份工业订单和产出以及出口均有所回升。德国联邦银行表示，在服务业扩张和工业部 门企稳的推动下，预计第四季度将实现温和增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家在近日访问德国后发表声明表示，德国政府对债务刹车机制进行了具有 里程碑意义的改革，预计这将有助于推动经济逐步复苏。 "复苏指日可待。"德意志银行首席德国经济学家温克勒（Robin Winkler）表示，"我们只需要等待财政 刺激措施真正发挥作用。" 第一财经采访的多位学者和德国经济学家均指出，作为欧洲最大经济体，德国近年来遭受一系列打击， 包括地缘政治冲突带来的能源成本飙升、美国提高对德出口关税以及在汽车等关键领域面临激烈竞争 等，但这些挫折也给德国政策制定者和企业敲响了警钟，他们更加重视增加投资、提高借贷规模和增加 国 ...

本文字数：2413，阅读时长大约5分钟 2025.11. 28 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 在经历了超过五年的停滞之后，德国经济可能正在显现复苏迹象。 欧盟在近期发布的最新预测中表示，预计德国经济在2026年和2027年都将增长1.2%。 德国联邦统计局发布数据也显示，德国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）保持平稳，避免了经济衰退。与此同时，德国9月 份工业订单和产出以及出口均有所回升。德国联邦银行表示，在服务业扩张和工业部门企稳的推动下，预计第四季度将实 现温和增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家在近日访问德国后发表声明表示，德国政府对债务刹车机制进行了具有里程碑意义的改 革，预计这将有助于推动经济逐步复苏。 "复苏指日可待。"德意志银行首席德国经济学家温克勒（Robin Winkler）表示，"我们只需要等待财政刺激措施真正发 挥作用。" 第一财经采访的多位学者和德国经济学家均指出，作为欧洲最大经济体，德国近年来遭受一系列打击，包括地缘政治冲突 带来的能源成本飙升、美国提高对德出口关税以及在汽车等关键领域面临激烈竞争等，但这些挫折也给德国政策制定者和 企业敲响了警钟，他们更加重视增加投资、提高借贷规模和增加 ...

Economic Outlook - The European Union forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, indicating potential signs of recovery after over five years of stagnation [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported that the GDP remained stable in the third quarter, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing signs of recovery [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that reforms to the debt brake mechanism by the German government are expected to support gradual economic recovery [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The German government has established a special fund totaling €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is classified as additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [2][5] - A significant portion of this fund is allocated for defense, with local arms manufacturers hiring workers from the automotive sector to support expansion plans [5] - Analysts believe that the efficiency of implementing these infrastructure projects is crucial, as delays could lead to inflationary pressures [5][10] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned that without further bold reforms at both domestic and EU levels, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges [2][8] - The labor force in Germany is expected to decline more sharply than in any other G7 country over the next five years, posing a significant challenge to economic growth [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential misuse of new borrowing, with warnings that funds could be diverted to welfare spending rather than infrastructure [9][10] Long-term Growth Potential - The IMF anticipates that higher government spending starting in 2026 will provide a significant boost to economic growth, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [6][7] - The construction sector, which has faced a deep recession, is seen as critical for Germany's economic recovery, with expectations of a rebound due to cyclical rather than structural issues [5][6] - The ongoing demand for high-end manufacturing within the EU is expected to support Germany's economy, despite challenges faced by the automotive industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - European IPO activity is expected to recover significantly in 2024, driven by strong recent listings and a more favorable market environment compared to previous years [1][3][6]. Group 1: Recent IPO Activity - A series of strong IPOs since September, including Verisure Plc, Noba Bank Group AB, and Ottobock SE, have led to a rebound in issuance volume, with trading prices generally above their issue prices [3][6]. - The total amount raised through IPOs in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region has exceeded $21 billion this year, although this represents a 34% decrease compared to 2024 [6][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Investment bankers express confidence that 2026 could see the IPO market return to pre-pandemic levels, with a notable increase in visibility for actionable IPO projects compared to a year ago [1][6]. - The current market environment is described as the most constructive since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, encouraging more companies to consider going public [3][10]. Group 3: Future IPO Plans - Several large-scale IPOs are in preparation, including Czechoslovak Group AS, which is planning an IPO in Amsterdam with a valuation of up to €30 billion, and Visma AS, considering a London listing in 2026 with a valuation of €19 billion [6][10]. - Companies that postponed their IPO plans in 2025 are now reconsidering their options, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10][11]. Group 4: Market Conditions - European benchmark indices, including the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100, have reached historical highs this year, which may encourage issuers to enter the market [10][11]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential macroeconomic events or geopolitical tensions that could impact market volatility and the execution of upcoming IPOs [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Bernstein initiates coverage of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall with a "market perform" rating and a target price of €1960 [1] Company Summary - Rheinmetall is recognized as a significant player in the defense sector, particularly in Germany [1] - The company's stock is expected to perform in line with the broader market based on Bernstein's analysis [1]

Group 1 - European countries have imposed a ban on Chinese Xinjiang cotton, which has led to unintended consequences for their own ammunition production [3][11][23] - The specific type of cotton affected is short-staple cotton, essential for producing nitrocellulose, a key component in modern explosives [5][7][13] - China dominates the global market for short-staple cotton and nitrocellulose, supplying nearly half of the world's short-staple cotton trade in 2022, which is crucial for European ammunition manufacturers [7][21] Group 2 - The European Union's ban on Xinjiang cotton has disrupted the supply chain for military-grade materials, leading to a significant shortage of ammunition in Europe [11][15][19] - Major European defense companies, such as Rheinmetall and Saab, have expressed concerns over their reliance on Chinese imports for short-staple cotton, prompting them to stockpile supplies [17][21] - Alternatives from countries like India and Brazil have been found to be of inferior quality, further complicating the situation for European manufacturers [19][21] Group 3 - The situation highlights the interconnectedness of global supply chains, where political decisions can have far-reaching impacts on industries [23][25] - The European defense sector's struggle to meet production targets, such as the goal of producing 200 million shells by 2025, is directly linked to the shortage of nitrocellulose [15][21] - The incident serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of political motivations overshadowing economic realities, emphasizing the need for cooperation in global trade [25]