Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with a reference view of low - level oscillation. The coking coal market has a supply - demand stalemate, and the coke market has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by coking coal costs [1][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation because of the stalemate between long and short [1] Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - On the night of June 18, the main coking coal contract fell slightly by 785 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 865.0 yuan/ton, a 2.8% week - on - week decline, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. The change in market sentiment comes from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations. However, it will take time to reverse the supply - loose pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation mechanism on terminal demand is limited, and the key may be the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on international energy prices [5] Price and Market Analysis of Coke - On the night of June 18, the main coke contract opened higher and declined slightly, maintaining a low - level oscillation pattern. After three rounds of price cuts, the coke price was stable this week. The latest offer of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the futures warehouse receipt cost was about 1401 yuan/ton. The coke market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support of coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On June 18, the main coke contract closed at 1,375 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.62%. The position of the main contract was 51,886 lots, a net increase of 743 lots from the previous trading day. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, affected by the off - season. However, the recent marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with events such as the Israel - Iran conflict and political turmoil in Mongolia, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize. In general, the fundamentals of coke have not changed much. The off - season still suppresses the decline of both supply and demand, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased marginally, driving the coke price to stop falling and rebound slightly. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material situation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 18, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.57% intraday. The position of the main contract was 549,735 lots, a net decrease of 13,032 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 834 yuan/ton. The change in the coking coal market sentiment mainly stems from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations brought by international themes such as geopolitics and Sino - US relations. The short - and medium - term adjustment of coking coal, which has been hitting new lows this year, is reasonable. However, it will still take some time to completely reverse the current situation of loose supply. Without policy intervention, the supply pressure of coking coal may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the first meeting of the Sino - US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the more critical factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. In general, the coking coal futures have stopped falling and stabilized and gradually moved up, but the sustainability of coking coal production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. It is recommended to view it as a phased rebound, but be vigilant against the falsification of the upward logic [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **Automobile Trade**: In May 2025, China exported 690,000 automobiles, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; from January to May, the cumulative export was 2.85 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In May, China imported 50,000 automobiles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%; from January to May, the cumulative import was 180,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8% [8]. - **Coking Coal Market**: On June 18, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable. The ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong coking coal (A10.5, S4.1, V31, G100, Y40, CSR75, Mt10) was 780 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive of tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,270 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 0.85% | - 4.10% | - 27.78% | - 40.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 865 yuan/ton | - 2.81% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 0.83% | - 4.72% | - 18.79% | - 43.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,375.0 yuan/ton | + 0.62% | 1,390.0 yuan/ton | 1,361.5 yuan/ton | 26,667 lots | + 5,677 lots | 51,886 lots | + 743 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 790.5 points | - 0.57% | 801.0 points | 782.0 points | 834,209 lots | - 185,328 lots | 549,735 lots | - 13,032 lots | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][29][31]. Market Outlook The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and the need to continue monitoring relevant factors [32][33].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "low - level oscillation" [1] - For coking coal, the market sentiment change is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. It has stopped falling and rebounded, but the supply - easing pattern may return, and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] - For coke, it maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The cost support from coking coal has strengthened, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coking coal contract oscillated around 790 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations have led to a short - and medium - term adjustment. But it will take time to reverse the supply - easing pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] Coke - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coke contract oscillated narrowly. After three rounds of price cuts, the price has been stable this week. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, week - on - week unchanged, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: It maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 17, the closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The position was 51,143 lots, a decrease of 728 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke is in a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with geopolitical events, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [5][31]. - From January to May, coking coal futures continued to decline. The recent change in market sentiment is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. For coking coal hitting an 8 - year low, short - and medium - term adjustments are reasonable. However, it will take time to reverse the current pattern of loose supply. Without policy intervention, supply pressure may return after July. The impact of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the key factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. Since June 3, the price of the coking coal 2509 contract has stopped falling and gradually increased, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation [6][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - On June 16, US President Trump said that the US would postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that at the US request, a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the US to normalize diplomatic relations had been cancelled [8]. - On June 17, in the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market, 0.3 million tons of low - sulfur main coking coal failed to be sold, and the starting price was 1,070 yuan/ton. For high - sulfur lean coal, 1 million tons were sold at a price of 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from June 13 [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - warehouse price was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 5.22%, an annual decline of 24.85%, and a year - on - year decline of 36.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.28%, an annual decline of 27.16%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.80% [10]. - The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.81%, a monthly decline of 5.98%, an annual decline of 26.69%, and a year - on - year decline of 45.94%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%, a monthly decline of 4.72%, an annual decline of 18.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 43.46%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.10%, an annual decline of 18.30%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.02% [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%, a maximum price of 1,378.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,357.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 20,990 lots, a volume difference of - 9,838 lots, a position of 51,143 lots, and a position difference of - 728 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a maximum price of 808.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 785.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,019,537 lots, a volume difference of - 9,258 lots, a position of 562,767 lots, and a position difference of - 16,234 lots [13]. Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills' coking plants, ports, etc.) on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025, as well as other related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][26][28] Market Outlook - The coke market has limited fundamental positives, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased, driving the price to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material side [5][31]. - The coking coal market has seen a short - and medium - term price rebound, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. A phased rebound approach is recommended, but beware of the falsification of the upward logic [6][32]