Market Overview - The overall trend of bulk commodities is characterized by significant fluctuations, with domestic commodities experiencing a two-day rise followed by a morning pullback, while international markets (precious metals, crude oil) also show substantial volatility, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears without clear directional continuation [3][23]. Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products - Strong sectors include precious metals, with Shanghai silver rising 8.32% to set a new historical high, and international gold showing a V-shaped reversal with over 10% intraday volatility [4][23]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Shanghai copper and LME copper, also performed well, with Shanghai copper increasing by 6.18% and LME copper by 4.73%, supported by a decline in Chilean copper production [4][23]. - The energy and chemical sector saw Shanghai crude oil rise by 6%, driven by cost increases and geopolitical tensions from military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz [4][23]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic raw material sector, particularly polysilicon, faced a downturn, with a 6.18% drop in the polysilicon 2605 contract due to high inventory and demand exhaustion [4][23]. Core Trading Strategies and Execution - The strategy emphasizes profit-taking and risk management, with previous long positions being closed to lock in gains, while maintaining a light long position in PVC2605 and focusing on the bearish trend of polysilicon [6][24]. - Previous long positions in fuel, plastics, and non-ferrous metals achieved significant profits, with Shanghai copper and silver exceeding 63% gains [27][30]. - The current strategy for PVC2605 involves a light long position with a maximum allocation of 10% of total equity, aiming for a first profit target of 4970-4980 points and a subsequent target of 5100-5150 points [28][30]. Global Market Context - Internationally, macroeconomic tensions are evident, with contrasting positions from Trump advocating for interest rate cuts and Powell maintaining high rates, leading to increased volatility in the dollar [25]. - Geopolitical risks are heightened due to military exercises planned by Iran, which are expected to boost demand for oil and precious metals as safe-haven assets [25]. - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with international precious metals showing intraday volatility exceeding 8% and Bitcoin dropping over 6% [25]. Domestic Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings regarding increased market uncertainty ahead of the Spring Festival, urging investors to act rationally [26]. - Domestic commodities are influenced by both internal and external market dynamics, with Shanghai silver and copper leading gains while polysilicon faces downward pressure due to high inventory levels [26]. Future Considerations - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on light positions and closely monitoring the stop-loss levels for PVC2605, while tracking the bearish trend in polysilicon for potential short opportunities [33][37]. - The strategy will prioritize high liquidity and clear trend products, avoiding low volatility items with unclear supply-demand dynamics [36].

Core Insights - The asset management market is highly competitive, with 352 products showcasing performance as of October 2025, according to data from Private Placement Network [1] - Jin Xin Futures' "Jin Xin Jump One Asset Management Plan" has emerged as the top performer in the multi-asset product strategy category, outperforming various public funds and licensed financial institutions [1][4] Performance Rankings - As of October 2025, Jin Xin Jump One is ranked first among multi-asset strategies, demonstrating exceptional performance in a crowded market [2] - The product has consistently ranked in the top three of its category since October 2024, indicating stable returns and effective asset allocation strategies [4] Investment Strategy - The core investment philosophy of Jin Xin Jump One revolves around "macro game," focusing on macroeconomic analysis and market dynamics for asset and strategy allocation [6] - The product team aims to discover investment opportunities in complex market environments, utilizing a dynamic approach to adjust allocations across stocks, bonds, and commodities [6]

Core Insights - The "Jinxin Leap One Asset Management Plan" has consistently ranked among the top three in multiple asset strategy performance since early October 2024, attracting market attention due to its stable returns and dynamic asset allocation strategy [1][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - Since its establishment in August 2023, "Jinxin Leap One" has maintained a core investment philosophy centered on macroeconomic analysis and market dynamics, achieving stable excess returns over the CSI 1000 index every month [4]. - The product team aims to discover investment opportunities in complex market environments, providing differentiated wealth management solutions [4]. Group 2: Investment Team - The investment managers, Zhu Shu and Yu Xiaoqi, bring a blend of quantitative investment and macroeconomic research expertise, with Zhu Shu having extensive experience in investment logic construction and portfolio management [5]. - Yu Xiaoqi is noted for his keen market intuition and deep analysis of industry cycles, contributing to the dual-driven model of "quantitative models + industry insights" [5]. Group 3: Product Matrix - Jinxin Asset Management has developed a product matrix that includes the Jinxin Base State series focusing on market arbitrage strategies, the Jinxin Yurun series enhancing macro strategy effectiveness through quality private equity funds, and the Jinxin Dirac Sea series which aims to expand excess returns based on the CSI 1000 index [6]. Group 4: Differentiated Competition - The asset management department adheres to regulatory requirements and emphasizes compliance as a value creator, leveraging its expertise in risk management to develop derivative-featured asset management products [7]. - Future plans include deepening the "macro-industry-quantitative" research system and exploring the application of new technologies like AI and big data in investment strategies [7].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Game, Copper Oscillates" and was produced on August 5, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The US non - farm payroll data increases the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro game. The fundamental situation is still in a loose logic, but the low domestic inventory limits the downside space. The copper market is oscillating strongly with small recent fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US July non - farm employment only added 73,000, with the June data significantly revised down to 14,000, and a cumulative downward revision of 258,000 in the past two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 37.7% to 90%, strengthening the expectation of two rate cuts within the year, yet there are still differences in the market regarding rate cuts, and the US dollar index mainly oscillates [1] - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the SMM China electrolytic copper output in July increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and rebounded. Three smelters have maintenance plans in the third quarter, and currently, smelters can still make up for losses with by - products such as sulfuric acid. Demand is weak in the off - season, and market trading sentiment is tepid. The subsequent tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand. The SHFE inventory is still at a low level and has not significantly accumulated, supporting the price [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened high, then went low and then high, oscillating strongly, closing at 78,580 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,007 to 102,914 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,487 to 106,736 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is 120 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 55 yuan/ton. On August 4, 2025, the LME official price was $9,685/ton, and the spot premium was - $62.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $41.99/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.19 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory is 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons from the previous period. As of August 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, a slight increase of 14,275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory remained unchanged at 261,180 short tons [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected downturn in U.S. non-farm payroll data, which has led to significant market impacts, particularly a sharp decline in global stock markets [2] - The article suggests that the disappointing non-farm data may indicate deeper underlying market risks that have been previously overlooked [2] - The discussion will be led by Guo Shengbei, founder of GSB Award Fund and former managing director at Deutsche Bank, who will elaborate on seven critical market risks following the non-farm data release [2] Group 2 - The content categories include global financial hotspots, sharing insights on market events and Federal Reserve meetings [4] - The series also features personal anecdotes from Wall Street, bridging economic data with everyday life experiences [4] - Future content previews include macroeconomic strategies for 2025, new opportunities in the commodity market for 2024 and 2025, and interpretations of sovereign fund behaviors on market impacts [4]

Group 1 - The event "2025 Stock Index Futures and Options Strategy Exchange Conference" was held, focusing on the application of stock index futures and options strategies and market outlook [1] - The general manager of Jin Xin Futures emphasized the importance of enhancing professional skills and mastering financial tools to seize opportunities and manage risks in a complex market environment [1] - The conference included discussions on the structure, mechanisms, and practical applications of stock index options, providing a theoretical and practical framework for attendees [1] Group 2 - Jin Xin Futures plans to continue deepening its "research + service" dual-driven strategy to assist investors in building a multi-dimensional risk management system and upgrading asset allocation [2]