银河证券章俊表示，国内物价运行的低点已过，正进入温和修复阶段。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开 放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将保持连 续性、稳定性兼顾灵活性。 摘要 2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气 状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中有进，顺利收官。 兴业证券王涵认为，未来宏观经济将稳中求进、提质增效，结构持续优化，新质生产力占比 提升，"投资于人"带来新的经济活力。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工 业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速 预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资总量 预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测 ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

Economic Outlook - The economic confidence index for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a steady economic outlook with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1][4][8] - Economists predict that the external environment will remain complex and variable, emphasizing the need for domestic economic focus on restoring internal demand [1][7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is forecasted to be -0.1%, showing a slight recovery from the previous month's -0.3% [2][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.3% [2][9] Retail and Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in October is predicted to be 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [2][10] - Factors affecting retail growth include a decline in automotive sales and a slowdown in the real estate market, despite positive trends in tourism and online consumption [11][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October is expected to grow by 5.7%, a decrease from the previous month's 6.5% [2][12] - High-frequency data indicates strong production activity, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, suggesting continued robust industrial performance [12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be -0.8%, slightly lower than the previous month's -0.5% [2][13] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to receive a boost from new fiscal policies, while real estate investment continues to face challenges [14][15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October is forecasted to be $94.26 billion, an increase from the previous month's $90.45 billion [2][16][18] - Export growth is expected to be 2.6%, while import growth is projected at 3.1%, both lower than previous figures [18] Financial Indicators - New loans for October are expected to drop to 454.91 billion yuan from 1.29 trillion yuan in September [2][19] - The total social financing amount is predicted to be 1.3 trillion yuan, down from 3.53 trillion yuan in September [20] Monetary Policy - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted to be 8.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.4% [21] - Economists expect little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with potential for slight adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 7.1 by the end of November [3][23] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to remain steady at approximately $333.71 billion [24] Policy Directions - Macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on enhancing infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on "investment in people" to drive sustainable economic growth [26][27][29] - The government aims to improve residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand [31][32]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange (FX) inflows and outflows in China for September 2025, highlighting the dynamics of the FX market and its implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Net FX Inflows**: In September 2025, there were net FX inflows of **US$27 billion**, a significant recovery from **US$34 billion** in outflows in August, primarily driven by increased inflows related to goods trade [1][2][3]. 2. **Current Account Performance**: The current account channel recorded **US$64 billion** in FX inflows in September, up from **US$22 billion** in August. Notably, goods trade contributed a net inflow of **US$72 billion** in September compared to **US$36 billion** in August [3][4]. 3. **FX Conversion Ratio**: The FX conversion ratio for goods trade surged to **80%** in September, compared to **35%** in August and **58%** in Q3, indicating a stronger conversion of trade surpluses into foreign currency [3][15]. 4. **Services Trade Deficit**: FX outflows related to the services trade deficit decreased to **US$11 billion** in September from **US$14 billion** in August, suggesting a slight improvement in the services sector [3]. 5. **Portfolio Investment Channel**: The portfolio investment channel experienced **US$8 billion** in FX outflows in September, contrasting with **US$5 billion** in inflows in August. Bond Connect flows showed **US$6 billion** in outflows, down from **US$14 billion** in August [4]. 6. **Official FX Reserves**: Official FX reserves rose to **US$3,339 billion** in September from **US$3,322 billion** in August. After adjusting for FX valuation effects, reserves increased by **US$16 billion** [5]. 7. **Commercial Banks' External Assets**: Commercial banks' net external assets increased by **US$10 billion** in September, recovering from a **US$50 billion** decline in August, with the total outstanding amount now at **US$1,227 billion** [5]. Additional Important Insights - The data indicates a trend of foreign investors slowing their sales of RMB bonds from August to September, which may reflect a more stable outlook for the Chinese bond market [1][12]. - The overall improvement in FX inflows and reserves could signal a strengthening of the Chinese economy, particularly in the goods trade sector, which is crucial for future investment strategies [3][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the FX market in China and its implications for the broader economy.

Core Insights - The official foreign exchange reserves of Malaysia reached $81 million by the end of August, reflecting a 4.5% increase from July [1] - This growth is attributed to several government measures aimed at strengthening foreign exchange reserves, including policies on bank dollar inflows and increased tourism foreign exchange earnings [1] - However, short-term foreign liabilities surged to $739 million during the same period, resulting in a significant 11.5% decline in usable reserves, which fell to $18.9 million [1] - Although a $400 million currency swap agreement with the Indian central bank provides some support, the country faces a repayment pressure exceeding $1 billion by 2026, raising concerns about reserve security [1]