项目一期预计2026年一季度启动建设，2026年三季度竣工投产。 磷酸铁锂正极材料核心供应商龙蟠科技（603906.SH）再出扩产动作。 据该公司1月5日公告，为进一步扩大高性能磷酸铁锂产能，控股子公司常州锂源拟与江苏省金坛华罗庚 高新技术产业开发区管理委员会（下称"华罗庚高新区管委会"）签署合作协议，以自有资金及自筹资 金，总投资不超过20亿元投建高性能锂电池正极材料项目。 12万吨新产能拟三季度投产 龙蟠科技称，停产检修预计减少常州锂源磷酸铁锂产量约5000吨，预计不会对公司2026年经营业绩产生 重大影响。 业内分析，扩产的核心考量是抢占技术与市场先机以满足未来订单，而短期停产检修的核心目的是保障 生产安全和稳价格，而公司牺牲部分产量减产的另一原因是成本压力大。 项目于2026年一季度启动建设，2026年三季度竣工投产，一期项目建成后产能不低于12万吨/年。二期 建设将根据市场情况适时启动。 最新公告显示，华罗庚高新区管委会将为项目开通落地绿色通道，包括但不限于"四证两评"（土地使用 权证、用地规划许可证、建筑工程规划许可证、建筑工程施工许可证和环评报告批复、节能审查批 复）。负责协调项目公司生产用电、 ...

2025年多地长协电价承压下行已获高层关注，随着广东等多地出台批零价差约束等政策组合拳以遏制非 理性竞争，以及2026年起容量电价补偿比例普遍上调，电价单边下行的最大利空正逐步出清。同时，煤 炭"反内卷"政策强化供给约束，成本端趋于可控，行业正从"价量双杀"转向"稳价增收"新阶段，有望驱 动板块价值重估。 方正证券发布研报称，当前正值年底电价谈判时期，广东、安徽、河北南网、陕西等地陆续出台批零价 差限制政策，有望遏制售电公司过去赌单边下跌的套利模式，为26年长协电价形成一定支撑。此外受煤 电等价格体系联动影响，在煤价供给端管控的背景下明年电价跌幅或也有望小于市场预期;叠加明年起 各地容量电价普遍提升，该行认为火电电价端负面影响或在一定程度上有所缓解。新能源方面，当前部 分地区的新能源增量项目的竞价结果已出，整体上竞价电价较存量项目电价有所下降，其中考虑到风电 电价普遍较高，且海风项目消纳条件相对优异，随着多地出台海风建设规划，未来发展潜力较大。 方正证券主要观点如下： 火电：煤稳价托，聚焦区域与成长α 2025年新能源板块呈现"短期承压，长期向好"格局。核电市场化电价下行压制了营收增速，且广东等地 政策调整与 ...

江苏国信（002608.SZ）12月19日在投资者互动平台表示，目前马洲电厂刚投产，正在办理相关手续， 预计不久后会纳入容量电价补偿范围。公司目前已投产的机组基本上都覆盖了容量电价政策，新投产机 组一般在投产3个月内办理相关手续后也可同步享受政策。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问国信马洲电厂是否已纳入公司容量电价补偿范 围？公司目前符合容量电价政策的煤电机组装机容量具体是多少万千瓦？2026年容量电价上调后，预计 为公司带来多少收益增量？新投产机组是否同步享受政策？ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, driven by the capacity compensation policy and the accelerated construction of the power market, the economy of domestic independent energy storage projects significantly improved, leading to strong growth in overall energy storage demand. The US and European markets continued their steady growth, and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Australia continued to expand. It is estimated that the global new installed capacity in 2025 will reach 271GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45%. The expected good terminal demand prompted enterprises to increase their inventory coefficients, and the annual battery cell shipments are expected to reach 550GWh, a year-on-year increase of 65% [2]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the high returns of independent energy storage are expected to continue, and the large-scale winning bids for domestic projects lay the foundation for demand. Under the neutral scenario, the domestic new installed capacity is expected to be 284GWh, and in the optimistic scenario, it can reach 325GWh, achieving a doubling growth. Overseas, the US may face certain pressure in the short term due to the cost increase brought by the "Big and Beautiful" Act and the unmanifested energy storage demand related to data centers. The new installed capacity is expected to be 50GWh, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Europe will benefit from the profitability improvement brought by grid investment and trading mechanism optimization, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 43GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39%. Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are the main sources of incremental growth in emerging markets, and the total new installed capacity in emerging markets is expected to reach 87GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68%. Overall, in 2026, the global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 505GWh in the optimistic scenario, a year-on-year increase of 86%; 464GWh in the neutral scenario, a year-on-year increase of 71%; and 368GWh in the rigid scenario, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3]. - In the context of high terminal demand, the probability of a significant reduction in the inventory coefficient is low. However, it is necessary to consider the overdrawn demand in some markets. The US has limited additional inventory space in 2026, and Australia faces a similar situation. A total of about 60GWh of additional inventory demand needs to be deducted from the two regions. In 2026, the energy storage battery cell shipments are expected to reach 957GWh in the optimistic scenario, a year-on-year increase of 74%; 833GWh in the neutral scenario, a year-on-year increase of 52%; and 649GWh in the rigid scenario, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Energy Storage Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, from January to October, the new installed capacity of domestic new energy storage continued to grow rapidly. The new installed capacity of new energy storage reached 34.6GW/92.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. The proportion of grid-side energy storage increased to 60%, and the proportions of power source-side and user-side were 31% and 9% respectively. The price of energy storage continued to decline, but the decline has significantly narrowed. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of new energy storage in 2025 will reach 53.1GW/140GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31% [7][9]. - **Overseas Market**: The demand in overseas markets continued to be strong. From January to October 2025, China's energy storage battery cell exports reached 79.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 86%. The US energy storage market maintained high-speed growth, and it is estimated that the new installed capacity in 2025 will reach 48GWh, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%. The European energy storage market showed structural differentiation, with different performances in Germany, Italy, and the UK [13][19][26]. 2. Domestic Market: The Resonance of Rigid Demand for Consumption and Economy Opens Up the Upside Space for Installation - **Rigid Demand**: The continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy has intensified the "duck curve" problem, and the ability of energy storage to regulate has become a rigid demand. The state has issued top-level documents to promote the consumption of new energy, and new energy storage is becoming a key tool to improve the consumption capacity of new energy. It is estimated that from 2026 to 2030, the installed capacity of new energy storage needs to reach 386GW, corresponding to an installed capacity of 1081GWh and an average annual installed capacity of 216GWh [32][34][36]. - **Economic Driving Force**: The driving logic of the domestic energy storage market has changed fundamentally. Independent energy storage has become the core driving force for the development of the domestic energy storage market. The economy of independent energy storage mainly comes from peak-valley spread arbitrage, auxiliary service market revenue, and capacity price compensation. The implementation of the capacity price compensation policy in multiple provinces will significantly improve the revenue level of energy storage projects [37][38][42]. - **Demand Outlook**: The energy storage bidding market has been active this year. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of energy storage in 2026 will be about 284GWh under the neutral scenario and about 325GWh under the optimistic scenario. The market generally expects that a national capacity price compensation policy will be introduced next year, and the compensation standard is expected to be linked to thermal power. Although the long-term demand in 2027 still has policy uncertainties, the trend of marginal improvement in the revenue of energy storage projects is clear [46][51]. 3. Overseas Market: The US is Under Pressure, While Europe and Emerging Markets Continue to Grow at a High Rate - **US**: The incremental installation of energy storage in the US in 2026 is expected to be limited. The "Big and Beautiful" Act may lead to an increase in manufacturing costs, which will suppress the demand in the US energy storage market to a certain extent. The revenue of energy storage projects in the US is facing downward pressure, and the new installed capacity may be slightly affected. The demand for energy storage in data centers has not been fully realized in the short term [54][55][59]. - **Europe**: The large-scale energy storage market in Europe is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in 2026, with the new installed capacity expected to reach 25GWh, a year-on-year increase of 54%. The post-meter energy storage market is showing a warming trend, with the new installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage expected to reach 6.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and the new installed capacity of household energy storage expected to reach 10.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 10% [63][67]. - **Emerging Markets**: The demand in emerging markets is booming, and the market increment is significant. The energy storage markets in Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are all expected to achieve rapid growth in 2026 [70][72][75]. 4. Demand Outlook: The Resonance of Domestic and Overseas Demand Accelerates the Release of Energy Storage Shipments - In 2025, the domestic demand continued to rise, the US and European markets maintained steady growth, and emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and India continued to expand. It is estimated that the global new energy storage installed capacity in 2025 will reach 271GWh, and the battery cell shipments will reach 550GWh [80]. - In 2026, the domestic demand is expected to be further released, the US market is under short-term pressure, and the high growth rate of Europe and emerging markets is expected to continue. In the optimistic scenario, the global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 505GWh; in the neutral scenario, it is expected to reach 464GWh; and in the rigid scenario, it is expected to reach 368GWh. The battery cell shipments are expected to reach 957GWh in the optimistic scenario, 833GWh in the neutral scenario, and 649GWh in the rigid scenario [80][82].

Core Insights - The energy storage industry continues to experience high demand, with a significant increase in orders for energy storage cells, leading to a "one cell hard to find" situation in the market [1] - Major companies are reporting full production and sales, indicating a robust market environment, with production schedules extending into 2026 [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement," with a focus on technological upgrades and cost control [3] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The energy storage cell market is witnessing a surge in orders, with companies like Longjing Environmental reporting production schedules extending to June 2026 [1] - Companies such as Hunan Youneng and Guizhou Anda Technology are operating at full capacity, driven by strong demand for both power and energy storage batteries [2] - The demand for phosphate cathode materials is expected to remain strong, supported by both power and energy storage battery markets [2] Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting strategies such as lean production and technological cost reduction to maintain competitive advantages [3] - Long-term strategic partnerships are becoming crucial for stable supply chains, exemplified by a ten-year agreement between Haibo Sichuang and CATL [3] - The industry is predicted to shift from a focus on total volume to structural competition, favoring companies with technological advantages and global supply chain capabilities [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The energy storage industry must avoid falling into price competition, advocating for industry self-discipline and standard constraints [4] - Emphasis on product differentiation and enhancing the performance of energy storage systems is essential [4] - Accelerating international expansion and certification processes will be vital for participating in global competition [4]