热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月26日，隔夜外盘休市，SHFE黄金收涨1.07%。今早开盘后，伦敦现货黄金重回4500美元/盎司之 上，伦敦现货白银跳空高开，盘中突破73美元/盎司，再创新高。 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 全球宽松叙事再加码。日本2026财年（2026年4月起）初始预算达122.3万亿日元，较2025财年的115.2万 亿日元增6.3%，为史上最大规模，增幅远超当前约2%左右的通胀水平，核心由社保、防卫、债务成本 等刚性支出驱动，同时依赖税收增长与发债补缺口。当前日本呈现"宽财政+紧货币"的组合，财政扩张 托底经济与民生，货币收紧抑制通胀，政策效果更具复杂性。地缘政治方面，乌总统表示讨论加快实 现"真正和平"的时间安排。近期贵金属市场再现过热情绪，金银依然表现坚挺，短期波动加大，注意仓 位管理。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，并不构成任 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | PMI修复的"短期掣肘"？ 2、海外高频 | 美国9月零售弱于预期，黄金白银大幅上涨 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第59期: 《2026年财政收支展望》 2、"洞见系列" 第103期: 《日本资财政，市场然视了什么?》 第104期: 《2026年:财政货市政策展望》 3、"速见系列" 第14期: 《每周热点》 第15期: 《每周热点》 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 2026年：财政货币政策展望 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.12.2 "十五五"开局之年，财政货币政策预计强化协同、优化结构、深化改革。 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 日本宽财政，市场忽视了什么？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.12.1 "宽财政+紧货币"组合可能触发套息交易反转，需警惕美日货币政策的分化与转向。 11 . 2 9 - 1 2 . 5 周度研究成果 高 频 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic stimulus plan introduced by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, which is expected to weaken the yen and increase inflationary pressures in Japan. The combination of expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to risks of a reversal in carry trade, necessitating caution regarding the divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - Kishi Sanae's economic stimulus plan amounts to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), slightly exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen. The fiscal deficit rate for Japan is projected to rise significantly in 2026 [3][9]. - The stimulus plan focuses on three main areas: 55% for inflation subsidies and social welfare (11.7 trillion yen), 34% for strategic industry investments (7.2 trillion yen), and 8% for defense and diplomacy (1.7 trillion yen) [3][15]. Group 2: Impact on GDP and Inflation - The expansive fiscal policy may raise Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, which is lower than the contributions expected from the US (0.6 points) and Germany (0.63 points). The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by 1.77 percentage points in Japan, compared to 1.0 points in the US and 0.84 points in Germany [4][23]. - While the inflation subsidies may temporarily lower the overall CPI growth by 0.7 percentage points in early 2026, they could simultaneously increase core inflation pressures in the medium term due to rising real incomes and a weaker yen [4][29]. Group 3: Risks of Carry Trade Reversal - The combination of high inflation and a weak yen makes it difficult for Kishi's expansive fiscal policy to coexist with the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan suggest a potential shift towards interest rate hikes [5][35]. - The divergence between the yen and US dollar interest rates, with the yen reaching a low of 157.9 against the dollar while the US-Japan 2-year interest rate spread narrows to around 2.5%, indicates that the market has priced in risks associated with Japan's fiscal expansion [5][41]. - The current conditions suggest a potential for a reversal in carry trade, although the impact may be milder compared to August 2024. Factors such as net short positions in the yen, the degree of divergence between exchange rates and interest rates, volatility, and triggering conditions should be monitored [5][47].

Group 1: Economic Stimulus in Japan - The economic stimulus plan introduced by Prime Minister Kishi is valued at 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen[2] - The plan allocates 55% (11.7 trillion yen) for inflation subsidies and social welfare, 34% (7.2 trillion yen) for strategic industry investments, and 8% (1.7 trillion yen) for defense and diplomacy[3] - Japan's fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise significantly to 2.8% in 2026, with an increase of 1.77 percentage points, compared to 1.0% for the US and 0.84% for Germany[18] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The fiscal stimulus is expected to boost Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, which is lower than the contributions expected from the US (0.6 points) and Germany (0.63 points)[23] - Temporary inflation subsidies may reduce the overall CPI growth by 0.7 percentage points in early 2026, but could increase core inflation pressures in the medium term[27] - The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to a reversal of carry trade, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching a low of 157.9 recently[4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - In the week following the announcement, major equity indices rose, with the S&P 500 increasing by 3.7% and the Nasdaq by 4.9%[5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 99.44, while gold prices surged by 3.4% to 4223.9 USD per ounce[5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.02%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment following the economic developments[5]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Dongfanghong Ruiyuan Mixed (000970) reported a profit of 23.9465 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0497 yuan [3] - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 2.03%, and as of the end of Q1, the fund size was 1.209 billion yuan [3] - The fund is categorized as a flexible allocation fund, with a unit net value of 2.477 yuan as of April 18 [3] Economic Context - Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in Q1, with fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments yielding positive results in sectors like automotive, home appliances, and consumer electronics [3] - Internationally, consumer confidence in the U.S. weakened, raising recession expectations; the outlook for 2025 suggests a continued expansive fiscal and monetary environment in China, while the U.S. may experience marginally declining fiscal conditions with tight monetary policy [3] Performance Metrics - As of April 18, the fund's three-month cumulative net value growth rate was 1.81%, ranking 239 out of 918 comparable funds; the six-month growth rate was 1.10%, ranking 291 out of 918; the one-year growth rate was 18.18%, ranking 138 out of 918; and the three-year growth rate was -17.76%, ranking 674 out of 901 [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.1544, ranking 737 out of 909 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 40.78%, with the highest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 19.9% [11] Investment Strategy - The average stock position over the past three years was 79.77%, slightly below the comparable average of 80.16%; the fund reached a peak stock position of 97.78% at the end of 2022 and a low of 60.8% by mid-2024 [14] Top Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Sanhua Group, SMIC, AVIC Optoelectronics, Keda Li, China Mobile, Siyuan Electric, Mango Super Media, Jingchen Technology, and China Telecom [20]