贵金属市场 2026 年年报 贵金属：金银岂是池中物 一遇风云便化龙 ——2025 年贵金属市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 梁海宽 Z0015305 摘要： 2025 年是贵金属市场大放异彩的一年，黄金白银成为全球主要资产类别中涨幅最 好的两类资产，白银年内实现翻倍，黄金涨超 60%，均为 1979 年以来最好的年度表 现。驱动本轮贵金属牛市的底层逻辑是全球对美元体系信仰的动摇，美元指数年内下 降幅度超 10%，二季度开始美国市场开始罕见地出现股债汇三杀，美元和美债的传统 避险属性开始失灵，逐步具备风险资产特征。美债实际利率对贵金属价格的解释力度 进一步下降，当前贵金属市场开始计价美国以及全球的债务风险，是资金基于对传统 信用货币体系不信任的终极对冲选择。美联储独立性在今年遭受了近半个世纪以来最 严峻的挑战，金银货币属性开始熠熠生辉。9 月美联储时隔一年再次开启降息周期， 在通胀未被完全驯服的情况下，美债实际利率下行。另外，贵金属的定义开始从传统 的避险资产逐步转向抗通胀资产和风险资产，开始成为全球非美资产配置中的重要一 环。从基本面来看，今年黄金实际供需处于小幅供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reallocating U.S. Treasury ownership from foreign to domestic investors, thereby reducing reliance on foreign capital and financing the deficit through domestic resources [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which complicates the economic landscape [5][6]. - The U.S. has a significantly negative net foreign asset position, leading to a heavy dependence on foreign funding, which constrains its sovereign independence [6][7]. Group 2: Pennsylvania Plan Strategies - The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to facilitate a historic transfer of U.S. Treasury holdings from foreign to domestic investors [9][10]. - The plan includes two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of Treasury risks [10][11]. Group 3: Reducing Foreign Dependence - Foreign investors currently hold a record amount of U.S. sovereign risk, but demand is declining due to geopolitical shifts and increasing fiscal deficits [11][12]. - A proposed solution is to shorten the duration of foreign investors' exposure by using dollar stablecoins backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries to attract foreign capital [12]. Group 4: Increasing Domestic Absorption - The U.S. private sector has a strong balance sheet and high cash holdings, indicating potential to absorb sovereign credit risk [13]. - Policy measures may include regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and the issuance of special bonds to encourage domestic purchases of long-term Treasuries [13]. - If incentives are insufficient, mandatory purchases of long-term Treasuries may be implemented, such as pushing retirement plans to absorb more government debt [13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The "Pennsylvania Plan" may not fundamentally resolve the twin deficit issue but could provide the U.S. government with more time by mobilizing domestic savings [14][18]. - The strategy may lead to higher Treasury yields and erosion of Federal Reserve independence, as domestic savings are pushed towards long-term fixed-income assets [15][16]. - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [17].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank suggests that the Trump administration can alleviate its "unsustainable" fiscal situation by encouraging more domestic investors to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, which may lead to lower bond prices and a weaker dollar [1] - The proposed "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to reduce reliance on international buyers of U.S. bonds by incentivizing domestic investment, such as making it easier for banks to buy bonds or establishing tax exemptions [1] - The report indicates that while these measures may not significantly reduce the funding gap, they could diminish the influence of foreign debt holders on U.S. policy and mitigate the risk of large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that investors should disregard the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," advocating for the U.S. government to seek more funding from domestic investors due to a lack of willingness to improve fiscal conditions [2] - The report predicts a "historic" shift that will pressure the dollar and increase term premiums, while the Federal Reserve may be more motivated to maintain low interest rates to manage fiscal pressures [2] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not be an economically unfavorable outcome [2] Group 3 - The extent to which foreign investors are avoiding U.S. assets remains unclear, although recent data from the U.S. Treasury indicates strong demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions, with foreign purchases near average levels [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Deutsche Bank's "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reducing reliance on foreign capital and utilizing domestic resources to finance the deficit [1][2][7] - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficit and trade deficit, which severely limits its sovereignty due to a negative net foreign asset position [2][3] - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposes a historic shift in U.S. debt holders from foreign to domestic investors, focusing on two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of U.S. debt [3][4] Group 2 - The first strategy involves decreasing reliance on foreign buyers, as demand for U.S. debt from foreign investors is declining due to geopolitical and economic factors [4][5] - The second strategy aims to enhance domestic absorption of U.S. debt by leveraging the strong balance sheets and cash reserves of the private sector, including regulatory exemptions and tax incentives [5][6] - If incentives do not sufficiently increase domestic absorption, mandatory measures may be implemented to require more long-term U.S. debt purchases from domestic entities [6] Group 3 - The market impact of the "Pennsylvania Plan" includes potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as the government seeks to mobilize domestic savings to buy more debt [7] - The strategy may lead to higher U.S. debt yields and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a steep yield curve, which could pose financial stability risks [7] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [7]