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中信银行(601998):零售战略推进,对公根基深厚
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-06 01:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The retail transformation of the company is showing results, and its corporate banking foundation remains strong. The company has elevated its retail business to the "first strategic" position, emphasizing long-term development despite industry pressures on retail asset quality [2][3] - The company's profitability has surpassed the overall level of joint-stock banks, with a relatively good asset quality performance. The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have begun to exceed the overall levels of joint-stock banks since 2023 [3][59] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 69.5 billion, 72.4 billion, and 75.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 4.2%, and 4.3% [4][82] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a large national joint-stock bank, established in 1987, with total assets exceeding 9.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [1][13][19] - It has a stable governance structure and ranks among the top in asset scale, revenue generation, and branch network among listed joint-stock banks [1][19] Retail Business Transformation - The retail business has been positioned as the primary strategic focus since 2022, with significant growth in retail assets under management (AUM) and retail customer numbers [2][26] - Retail loans have maintained a proportion of over 40% since 2018, and retail revenue contribution has consistently exceeded 40% since 2020 [26][32] Corporate Banking Strength - The company has a long-standing advantage in corporate banking, with stable growth in corporate customer numbers and loan scales [2][36] - The asset quality of corporate loans has improved, with a declining non-performing loan (NPL) ratio [3][36] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit growth have slightly outpaced the overall levels of joint-stock banks, with a focus on maintaining a stable net interest margin [3][66] - The NPL ratio for retail loans has increased in line with industry trends, but remains lower than the average for joint-stock banks [75] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The estimated reasonable stock price range is between 8.65 and 10.35 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 5% to 25% compared to the current price of 8.25 yuan [4][85] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 28% in the coming years, with a steady increase in dividends [82][86]
去年,招行居然被反超了?!
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-08 02:47
出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 在今年一季度,招行的业绩相比于兴业和中信银行,也没有明显优势,大差不差。 看来,逆势之下,强者并未恒强。 招行、兴业、中信三家银行体量接近,已经坐稳股份行前三甲的位置,也都是银行业规模前十的银行。 三家银行都有自己的特色,招行的零售和财富管理优势独步天下,兴业银行和中信银行都以对公业务见 长,在投行业务上也有相对优势,此外积极向零售转型。 图片来源 | AI制图 四月底,A股上市银行2024年报以及2025年一季报披露完毕。未上市的银行也大多发布了2024年业绩。 对比一下12家股份制银行在2024年的财报表现,有亮眼业绩的是兴业银行和中信银行,均实现了营收与 净利润的双增,资产规模增长也相对较好。而招商银行已是连续两年营收下滑,而且还有吃老本之嫌。 其他股份行中,浦发、民生、光大、平安、广发银行都处在营收下滑的状态,利润水平可以调节,意义 不太大。华夏银行、浙商银行、渤海银行、恒丰银行实现营收与净利润双增,但体量较小,不太有可比 性。 | 银行 | 资产规模(万 亿) | 资产规模增速 | 营收 | 营收增速 | 净利润 | 净利润增速 | | --- | --- | ...