Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened lower and closed lower today, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The overall supply is abundant, the downstream agricultural demand is weakening but there is still some end - of - season procurement. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week. During the conflict, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a high level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and closed lower today. After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton. The daily output is around 21 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply has entered the market. The downstream agricultural demand is weakening but still has some end - of - season procurement. The compound fertilizer factory is maintaining a high - start - up inventory - reduction trend and is expected to continue to increase capacity utilization next week. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory has continued to decline this period. Affected by Trump's threat remarks, urea followed the energy - chemical sector up yesterday and adjusted today. Under the main logic of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the domestic market, the increase is limited and it is expected to oscillate at a high level during the conflict [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1866 yuan/ton, closed lower, and finally closed at 1864 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.06%. The trading volume was 204,042 lots (-16,190 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,953 lots and the short positions decreased by 8,763 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 742 lots, Wukuang Futures had a net long position of + 443 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 1,415 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,525 lots [2] Spot - After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,712, the same as the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.03% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic urea market is fluctuating strongly. The international price is at a high level due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, and the domestic urea market is affected by market sentiment. However, factory quotes are relatively stable under the influence of the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - The agricultural demand has decreased recently, but due to the strong market sentiment, a few dealers are replenishing their stocks. The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has increased. The inventory of urea enterprises in most regions has decreased to varying degrees, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short - term [2]. - The domestic urea production has decreased slightly recently. Although there are plans for some enterprises' equipment to stop and resume production this week, considering short - term enterprise failures, the production is expected to have little fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan compared with the previous period; the 5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 244,735 lots, a decrease of 4,869 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 45,545; the exchange warehouse receipts were 8,055, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 570 US dollars/ton and 645 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.53%; the enterprise inventory was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons, a decline of 12.79%. The urea enterprise's operating rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02%; the daily urea production was 219,700 tons, unchanged. The urea export volume was 28 tons, a decrease of 32 tons; the monthly urea production was 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54%; the operating rate of melamine was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 286 yuan/ton, an increase of 534 yuan. The monthly production of compound fertilizer was 517.99 tons, an increase of 18.45 tons; the weekly production of melamine was 28,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 12.79%. As of March 12, the port inventory was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons, a decline of 0.53%. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,537,600 tons, a decrease of 300 tons, a decline of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the urea production decreased slightly as two shut - down plants resumed production and the previous period's plant changes continued [2] - The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants increased, leading to more industrial consumption of urea. Next week, the restart or increased load of plants in Hebei is expected to further raise the operating rate [2] - Recently, the international geopolitical conflict has spurred market trading sentiment, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, which has promoted the smooth shipment of urea factories. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased this week, and the short - term trend is expected to continue destocking [2] - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has pushed international prices to a high level. Affected by market sentiment, the domestic urea market fluctuates strongly, but factory quotes are stable due to the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1875 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 223,691 lots, down 6,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 44,299 lots, down 2,433 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 6,380, up 947 [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1880 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, and 1890 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 18 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 492.5 US dollars/ton and 565 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory was 190,000 tons, up 16,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 957,600 tons, down 140,500 tons [2] - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 93.31%, up 0.15%; the daily urea output was 219,700 tons, up 300 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 280,000 tons, down 32%; the monthly urea output was 6,289,610 tons, up 271,170 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.02%, up 3.61%; the operating rate of melamine was 49.45%, down 6.46% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 209 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was - 248 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 5,179,900 tons, up 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 25,700 tons, down 3,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, down 140,500 tons from the previous period, a 12.79% decrease [2] - As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 189,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.53% decrease [2] - As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,537,600 tons, down 300 tons from the previous period, a 0.02% decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, down 0.02% [2] Suggestion to Pay Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be in a sideways pattern. Urea maintenance devices are restored, daily output increases. Agricultural fertilizer use is gradually weakening as autumn planting nears the end, but the increase in compound fertilizer production boosts urea demand. Port inventories are accumulating again, and registered warehouse receipts are significantly increasing. The continuation of urea destocking provides downside support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea weekly prices first declined and then rose. On December 28, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1677 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a maximum of 1687 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1625 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.37% increase [3][4]. - The urea main - contract basis first strengthened and then weakened. On December 28, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 41 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-41) - (-9) yuan/ton. The urea 1 - 5 spread first strengthened and then weakened. On December 28, the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-73) - (-59) yuan/ton [3][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 86.4%, up 0.55 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 74.44%, up 1.55 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 20.24 tons. Next week, some devices in Shanxi will resume production, while some in Inner Mongolia are planned for annual maintenance [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market trading cooled down, and coal prices remained stable. As of November 27, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price as the previous week [3][13]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 6.78%, and that of gas - based urea was - 13.24%. With stable coal prices at the cost end and rising urea prices, urea production profits recovered slightly [13]. Demand - The average advance sales of major urea producers was 5.7 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 99.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and off - season storage purchased in moderation at low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales [18]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.06%, up 2.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 66.38 tons, up 0.9 tons from the previous week. Recently, the compound fertilizer production rate increased, and the finished product destocking speed slowed down [3][22]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 61.39%, down 0.71 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 3.167 tons. Some enterprises had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, and some devices resumed production after maintenance. It is expected that the operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will remain above 60% [25]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support for the panel market strengthened [26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 116.9 tons, down 7.7 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 32.1 tons, up 5 tons from the previous week. There were 7587 registered warehouse receipts, totaling 15.174 tons, an increase of 404 receipts (0.808 tons) from the previous week [3][29]. Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, urea device production cuts and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term production changes are expected to be small due to temporary enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is currently lukewarm, with fertilizer preparation for top - dressing continuing next week. Domestic industrial demand is weakening, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises continues to decline. The company is promoting autumn pre - sales, and raw material prices are stabilizing. The overall utilization rate of production capacity remains low due to more maintenance and sporadic production plans. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline with a larger decline, and the speed of urea gathering at ports has accelerated. With the promotion of local agricultural demand in China, the high - level inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. Urea is still in the port - gathering stage, domestic demand is slowly postponed, and it is expected that urea enterprises may continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1739 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 price difference is 41 yuan/ton, down 4889 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 223,883 lots, down 14,144 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,281. The number of exchange warehouse receipts is 500, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it is 1790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui, it is 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 425 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at the main port in China is 405 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 38.1 million tons, up 8.6 million tons; enterprise inventory is 109.59 million tons, down 4.01 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 85.78%, down 2.5 percentage points; the daily output of urea is 198,600 tons, down 5,800 tons. The export volume of urea is 0, unchanged. The monthly output of urea is 6,293,230 tons, up 448,150 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 30.11%, down 1.71 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 63.21%, down 1.11 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 173 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 405 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.809 million tons, down 1.0417 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,400 tons, down 600 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 billion tons, a decrease of 774,000 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 7.06%. As of June 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 381,000 tons, an increase of 86,000 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 29.15%. As of June 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3902 billion tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 2.83%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 85.78%, a decrease of 2.50 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [3] 3.6 Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea has turned into a shock pattern. The international urea price has rebounded significantly due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict since last Friday, and the domestic speculative sentiment has strengthened, leading to a short - term rebound in the spot price. The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased this cycle, but the overall de - stocking is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range temporarily. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in domestic export flow driven by high international urea prices, the transmission strength of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [2][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,781 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the trading volume was 266,861 lots, a decrease of 99,349 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 249,205 lots, a decrease of 12,128 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,881 tons, a decrease of 484 tons; the turnover was 9.50292 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.56531 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area increased by 19, the basis of Fengxi - disk increased by 9, and the basis of Dongguang - disk increased by 9. The spread between UR09 and UR01 increased by 2 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Hebei Dongguang remained unchanged. The price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 30 yuan/ton. The trading price in Shandong area increased by 10 yuan/ton, and that in Shanxi area remained unchanged. The operating rate was 87.55%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points, and the daily output was 201,310 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [1]. 2. Industry News - Since last Friday, the international urea price has rebounded significantly due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and the domestic speculative sentiment has strengthened, leading to a short - term rebound in the spot price. On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 3.49%. The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased this cycle, and the recent urea port collection volume has increased. The international regional conflict has led to an increase in domestic and foreign urea prices, driving the release of domestic agricultural demand and an increase in the shipment volume of urea factories. However, some regional enterprises have a trend of increasing inventory, and the overall de - stocking of urea is limited. The spot trading has weakened for two consecutive days, and the domestic sales flow rate of traders is slow. The downstream is slightly resistant to the price around 1,800 yuan/ton. But considering that the previous factory orders were relatively sufficient, the spot price is expected to be stable in the short term. The futures market has entered a waiting period. Under the background of weak domestic demand and strong exports, it is expected to fluctuate within a range temporarily. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in domestic export flow driven by high international urea prices, the transmission strength of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea futures prices may be on the stronger side, and it is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton [2] - The probability of an increase in urea production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is tepid, and domestic industrial demand has weakened. As the market enters the traditional off - season, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has declined [2] - Recently, the volume of urea gathering at ports has increased. International regional conflicts have led to rising urea prices at home and abroad, driving the release of domestic agricultural demand. Urea factory shipments have increased, and the inventory of domestic urea enterprises has decreased, but the overall de - stocking of urea is limited. Next week, urea is expected to gather at ports at an accelerated pace, and with the advancement of agricultural demand, the de - stocking amplitude may increase [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1789 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou urea is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 261,333 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 24,492 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is 15,003 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 4,365 sheets, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,445 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,800 yuan/ton, 1,790 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,820 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 10 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 41 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 360 US dollars/ton and 355 US dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 245,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 45,000 tons; enterprise inventory is 1,177,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 141,700 tons [2] - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 87.8%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.63 percentage points; the daily urea output is 201,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 0 tons, with no week - on - week change; the monthly output of urea is 6,293,230 tons, with an increase of 448,150 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.81%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 63.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 185 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 53 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4,809,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,041,700 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,700 tons, with a decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,136,000 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.49% [2] - As of June 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 245,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 19.51% [2] - As of June 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.82%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 87.80%, a decrease of 1.63 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend continued to decline [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]