杠杆率监管是2008年金融危机后美联储引入的最重要的银行资本监管规则变化之一，其设定主要基于在 安全与效率间的权衡，设置较高的底线将增厚机构资本实力，但影响信贷派生能力。美联储在引入杠杆 率监管的同时，还要求银行将美国国债等"无风险资产"与高风险资产同等对待，由于美国银行体系持有 大量美国国债，国债的纳入对相关机构杠杆率指标影响较大（对于大型银行，在目前约5%的水平上导 致约1个百分点的浮动），当前美国8家GSIB的杠杆率均保持在5%以上，显著高于欧洲、加拿大和日本 的大型银行。 2026年一季度，美联储及其他银行业监管机构将公布《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》终局规则的新方案，补充杠杆率 （SLR）和全球系统重要性银行（GSIB）的附加费方案也将同步推进。美国银行业面临美联储、财政 部下属的货币监理署、美国国会创立的联邦存款保险公司的多头监管，同时也受到巴塞尔委员会、金融 稳定委员会（FSB）等多个国际组织的规则限制。总体而言，自特朗普政府上台后，美国银行业国内监 管呈现出放松趋势，其政策目标从拜登政府时期的防范风险转向提升金融支持能力，预计相关放松措施 将导致美债市场流动性边际改善、大型银行扩张、经济和金融市场周期延后等 ...

自特朗普政府上台后，美国银行业国内监管呈现出放松趋势。 2026年一季度，美联储及其他银行业监管机构将公布《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》终局规则的新方案，补充杠杆率 （SLR）和全球系统重要性银行（GSIB）的附加费方案也将同步推进。美国银行业面临美联储、财政 部下属的货币监理署、美国国会创立的联邦存款保险公司的多头监管，同时也受到巴塞尔委员会、金融 稳定委员会（FSB）等多个国际组织的规则限制。总体而言，自特朗普政府上台后，美国银行业国内监 管呈现出放松趋势，其政策目标从拜登政府时期的防范风险转向提升金融支持能力，预计相关放松措施 将导致美债市场流动性边际改善、大型银行扩张、经济和金融市场周期延后等多重影响，需要高度关 注。 美国银行业国内监管整体走向放松 1.围绕《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》终局规则方案的整体变化。 美国监管机构2023年提出的《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》终局规则方案整体严于国际主流标准。一是针对特定贷款 类别设置更高的风险权重，包括住房抵押贷款风险权重高于国际标准20个百分点；零售类贷款（非房地 产）风险权重高于国际标准10个百分点。二是设立更为严格的资本缓冲要求。根据美联储年度压力测试 结果设定银行压力测试缓冲资本。提高对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The G20 meeting in Washington D.C. focused on enhancing the role of financial channels and macro policy coordination to promote global economic growth, with China emphasizing its support for multilateralism and the need for domestic policy adjustments in deficit countries [1][2]. Group 1: G20 Meeting Highlights - The G20 meeting took place on December 15-16, with discussions on the 2026 financial channel work arrangements and key topics [1]. - Chinese Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, Xuan Changneng, represented China and highlighted the importance of multilateralism and macro policy coordination [1]. Group 2: China's Position and Proposals - China supports modernizing regulations to improve the business environment while maintaining essential financial regulatory standards like Basel III [1]. - The country is actively implementing the G20 Cross-Border Payment Roadmap to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce transaction costs, adhering to international anti-money laundering standards [1]. - China plans to deepen reforms and expand high-level opening-up, focusing on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market to unleash service consumption potential [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and high-quality development [1].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of a multi-layered financial safety net that has been continuously improved at global, regional, and bilateral levels, with institutions like the IMF enhancing crisis response capabilities and various regional funds established to support financial stability [1][2] - The regulatory framework for crisis prevention has been significantly reformed post-2008 financial crisis, including the implementation of Basel III, which enhances the resilience of banking institutions and strengthens the oversight of systemically important financial institutions [2][3] - China has actively participated in the formulation and implementation of international financial regulatory standards, being one of the few economies to fully implement Basel III and establish a regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions [2] Group 2 - Current challenges to the global financial stability system include fragmented regulatory frameworks and the risk of "race to the bottom" in regulatory standards, influenced by domestic political factors [3] - Insufficient regulation in emerging areas such as digital finance, including the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market and climate risk-related frameworks, highlights the need for enhanced global regulatory coordination [3] - Weak regulation of non-bank intermediaries, which have significantly increased their share in global financing over the past 20 years, poses stability and transparency challenges that require stronger oversight [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening global financial governance and reforming the global financial safety net in response to challenges faced since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] - It highlights the continuous improvement of a multi-layered financial safety net, including the enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's crisis response capabilities and the establishment of regional financial stability mechanisms [1] - The article notes that China has actively participated in the formulation and implementation of international financial regulatory standards, being one of the few economies to fully implement Basel III [2] Group 2 - The article identifies new challenges to the global financial stability system, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and the risk of regulatory arbitrage influenced by domestic political factors [3] - It points out the insufficient regulation in emerging areas such as digital finance, particularly in the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market and climate risk-related frameworks [3] - The article stresses the need for stronger regulation of non-bank intermediaries, which have significantly increased their share in global financing over the past 20 years, highlighting their instability and lack of transparency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of "perpetual bonds" (also known as secondary capital bonds) by banks has accelerated significantly this year, driven by the increasing demand for capital replenishment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of August 7, 2023, banks have issued over 1 trillion yuan in "perpetual bonds," with a notable surge of over 200 billion yuan in July alone [1][2]. - A total of 47 banks have issued 69 "perpetual bonds" this year, amounting to 10,464.60 billion yuan, surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark [2]. - The issuance pace has notably increased since the second quarter of 2023, with 15 bonds issued in July, totaling 229.4 billion yuan, which exceeds the total issuance in the first quarter [2]. Group 2: Demand for Capital - The acceleration in "perpetual bond" issuance is fundamentally linked to banks' growing need for capital replenishment, particularly among smaller banks that find these bonds convenient [3][4]. - National banks have shown better performance in capital adequacy and risk management, benefiting from special government bond injections, which alleviates their capital replenishment needs [4][5]. - Smaller banks are more enthusiastic about issuing "perpetual bonds" due to their non-reliance on capital market valuations and the relatively controllable financing costs in the current low-interest environment [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Context - The Basel III framework mandates that commercial banks maintain a total capital adequacy ratio of at least 8%, with domestic regulations being even stricter [3]. - The ongoing tightening of city investment bonds has increased demand from institutional investors for "perpetual bonds," providing a favorable market environment for smaller banks [5][6]. - As of the first quarter of 2023, the overall capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 15.28%, with state-owned banks having the highest ratios [5]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There is a notable disparity in issuance scale among different types of banks, with state-owned and joint-stock banks issuing larger amounts compared to local and private banks [4][5]. - The regulatory framework stipulates that the proportion of secondary capital bonds that can be counted towards capital decreases over time, which could weaken the capital replenishment effect if not managed properly [5]. - Smaller banks face challenges in maintaining adequate capital replenishment capabilities, necessitating the establishment of a long-term capital replenishment mechanism [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of "perpetual bonds" (also known as secondary capital bonds) by banks has accelerated significantly this year, driven by the increasing demand for capital replenishment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of August 7, 2023, banks have issued over 1 trillion yuan in "perpetual bonds," with a notable surge of over 200 billion yuan in July alone [1][2]. - A total of 47 banks have issued 69 "perpetual bonds" this year, amounting to 10,464.60 billion yuan, surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark [2]. - The issuance pace has notably increased since the second quarter of 2023, with 15 bonds issued in July alone, totaling 229.4 billion yuan, which exceeds the total issuance in the first quarter [2]. Group 2: Demand for Capital - The acceleration in "perpetual bond" issuance is fundamentally linked to banks' growing need for capital replenishment, particularly among smaller banks that find these bonds more convenient [3][4]. - National banks have shown better performance in capital adequacy and risk management, benefiting from special government bond injections, which alleviates their capital replenishment needs [4][5]. - Smaller banks are more enthusiastic about issuing "perpetual bonds" due to their non-reliance on capital market valuations and the relatively controllable financing costs in the current low-interest environment [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Context - The Basel III framework mandates that commercial banks maintain a total capital adequacy ratio of at least 8%, with domestic regulations being even stricter [3]. - The ongoing tightening of city investment bonds has increased demand from institutional investors for "perpetual bonds," providing a favorable market environment for smaller banks [5][6]. - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was reported at 15.28% as of the end of the first quarter, with state-owned banks having the highest ratios [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - By 2025, the capital replenishment pressure on banks is expected to ease due to improved asset quality and capital injections from large banks [6]. - However, the ongoing demand for "perpetual bonds" remains strong, as they are viewed as quality investment options amid a prolonged "asset shortage" [6]. - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of capital replenishment for smaller banks, as they may struggle to meet regulatory requirements and maintain adequate capital levels [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,410 per ounce, amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and the potential impact on the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen a significant increase, reaching $3,416.65 per ounce as of July 22 [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the looming deadline for tariffs and the gathering strength of dollar short positions among investors [2][13]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Economic Implications - French Minister of Industry and Energy, Marc Ferracci, indicated that if no agreement on tariffs is reached by August 1, the EU will impose tariffs on over €90 billion worth of U.S. products, starting with an initial round of €21 billion [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about tariff revenues, projecting annual income could reach $300 billion, potentially accounting for 1% of GDP, with a ten-year forecast of $2.8 trillion [10]. Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Market Sentiment - The market is witnessing a crowded trade of shorting the dollar, as indicated by Bank of England Governor Bailey [14]. - Tim Hayes from Ned Davis Research has been bullish on gold since October 2023 and bearish on the dollar since March 2023, suggesting the dollar may need to drop another 10% to be considered undervalued [15]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently spoke at a regulatory meeting but did not provide any hints regarding monetary policy, adhering to the "quiet period" before the upcoming FOMC meeting [19]. - Powell emphasized the need for large banks to maintain sufficient capital and manage risks effectively, amidst ongoing discussions about the final rules of Basel III [20].