1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various policies from September 5th to September 20th, 2025, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. It aims to provide an overview of the current economic policy environment and potential impacts on different sectors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Tone - The government is promoting the construction of a unified national market and expanding service consumption. Measures include rectifying disorderly competition, boosting consumer spending with about 420 billion yuan in fiscal support driving over 2.9 trillion yuan in sales, and promoting private investment [1][11][12] - The State Council has deployed measures to promote private investment, aiming to expand investment space, ensure fair competition, and support private capital in new areas [13][16] 3.2 Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is more active, with a focus on using special bonds to repay government arrears to enterprises. As of September 19th, 2025, 1.1506 trillion yuan of special bonds have been issued, exceeding the annual limit of 800 billion yuan [17] - Over 60% of financing platforms have exited, and 4 trillion yuan of the 6 - trillion - yuan special debt quota has been issued. The government debt risk is under control, and it plans to issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota in advance [18][19] 3.3 Monetary Policy - The central bank has optimized and simplified the evaluation indicators for primary dealers, which helps to improve the transmission of interest rates and strengthen the benchmark nature of the Treasury yield curve [21] - The 14 - day reverse repurchase operation has been adjusted to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method, further strengthening the policy interest rate status of the 7 - day reverse repurchase [22] - The global financial stability system faces challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks, insufficient regulation in digital finance, and weak regulation of non - bank intermediaries [23] 3.4 Financial Supervision - A draft for public comments on the management regulations of public fund sales fees has been released, and the second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs will be listed on September 24th [26] - New regulations for insurance, trust, and securities industries have been introduced, including the "Insurance Company Capital Guarantee Management Measures", the "Trust Company Management Measures", and the start of the self - evaluation of securities company classification [27][28] - The controlling rights of three AMC companies have been transferred to Central Huijin. There are concerns about the liquidity risk of funds concentrated in the technology sector, and the proportion of cash wealth management in August reached a new low for the year [29] 3.5 Real Estate Policy - Shenzhen has relaxed purchase restrictions in multiple districts, and Shanghai has exempted first - home buyers from property tax under certain conditions [32] - Shenzhen has released a draft for public comments on the housing provident fund management measures, and Beijing and Shanghai have adjusted the upper and lower limits of the monthly housing provident fund payment base [33] 3.6 Tariff Policy - Chinese and US leaders had a phone call, and the two sides reached a basic framework on issues such as TikTok. China opposes the politicization of technology and economic and trade issues [36][37]

Domestic Macro Policy - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, aiming to improve people's livelihoods and foster new growth drivers[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on industrial internet applications and typical scenarios of "Artificial Intelligence+" to boost emerging industries[12] - Shanghai has adjusted housing tax policies, exempting first-time homebuyers and second homes under certain conditions for residents with residence permits[18] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is advocating for reforms in the global financial governance system, suggesting a shift towards a multi-currency international monetary system[14] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points reduction by year-end[23] Trade Relations - A constructive phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump highlighted the potential for mutual prosperity and cooperation between the two nations[21] Consumption and Investment - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand service consumption, including a "Service Consumption Season" and support for cross-industry collaborations[16] - The new energy storage plan aims for a capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving an estimated investment of approximately 250 billion yuan[13] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy execution may fall short of expectations[27]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of a multi-layered financial safety net that has been continuously improved at global, regional, and bilateral levels, with institutions like the IMF enhancing crisis response capabilities and various regional funds established to support financial stability [1][2] - The regulatory framework for crisis prevention has been significantly reformed post-2008 financial crisis, including the implementation of Basel III, which enhances the resilience of banking institutions and strengthens the oversight of systemically important financial institutions [2][3] - China has actively participated in the formulation and implementation of international financial regulatory standards, being one of the few economies to fully implement Basel III and establish a regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions [2] Group 2 - Current challenges to the global financial stability system include fragmented regulatory frameworks and the risk of "race to the bottom" in regulatory standards, influenced by domestic political factors [3] - Insufficient regulation in emerging areas such as digital finance, including the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market and climate risk-related frameworks, highlights the need for enhanced global regulatory coordination [3] - Weak regulation of non-bank intermediaries, which have significantly increased their share in global financing over the past 20 years, poses stability and transparency challenges that require stronger oversight [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening global financial governance and reforming the global financial safety net in response to challenges faced since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] - It highlights the continuous improvement of a multi-layered financial safety net, including the enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's crisis response capabilities and the establishment of regional financial stability mechanisms [1] - The article notes that China has actively participated in the formulation and implementation of international financial regulatory standards, being one of the few economies to fully implement Basel III [2] Group 2 - The article identifies new challenges to the global financial stability system, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and the risk of regulatory arbitrage influenced by domestic political factors [3] - It points out the insufficient regulation in emerging areas such as digital finance, particularly in the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market and climate risk-related frameworks [3] - The article stresses the need for stronger regulation of non-bank intermediaries, which have significantly increased their share in global financing over the past 20 years, highlighting their instability and lack of transparency [3]

Economic News - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to economic growth, showcasing the resilience of the large domestic market despite external challenges [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a strong global financial governance framework to prevent and resolve international economic and financial crises [1] - The China Engineering Machinery Industry Association reported a 12.4% year-on-year decline in the sales of graders in August 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 16.1% [1] - Guangdong Province aims to achieve a revenue of 100 billion yuan in the toy industry by 2027, with AI toy penetration expected to exceed 30% [1] - Zhejiang Province has initiated a financial service mechanism for urban renewal projects, with a total credit amount of 337.59 billion yuan approved for 49 key projects [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that over 1,000 enterprises are involved in national agricultural technology projects, accounting for 51% of total participants [1] - China's trade with ASEAN grew by 9.7% in the first eight months of the year, maintaining ASEAN as China's largest trading partner [1] Important Company News - RIFENG Co., Ltd. received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [4] - Air China reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for August 2025, with international capacity increasing by 12.6% [4] - China Pacific Insurance announced a transfer of shares from Shanghai International Group to Shanghai Jiu Shi Group and Shanghai Electric, with no change in control [4] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with total sales expected to exceed 6 billion yuan [4] - Aoyang Health announced a share transfer agreement, with Aoyang Group transferring 20% of its shares to Yuesheng Technology for a total of 593 million yuan [4] Daily Research Report - As of August 2025, the total social financing (TSF) grew by 8.8% year-on-year, with a decrease in new loans and a slowdown in credit demand [5][6] - The government bond financing's contribution to TSF is expected to decline as the issuance slows down, leading to a potential decrease in credit growth [6] - The new loans in August amounted to 590 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan [7] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, showing a slight decrease [7] - M1 growth continued to rise while M2 growth remained stable, indicating a shift in deposit trends [8] Company Analysis - ZTO Express reported a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but a slight decline in market share [10][11] - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance down to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a more competitive environment [11] - The average revenue per package decreased slightly, but the increase in key account customers helped mitigate some revenue loss [12][13] - The company's single-package gross profit margin faced pressure due to increased competitive pricing, but recovery is expected in the second half of the year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks on the international monetary system and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Group 1: Geoeconomic Risks - The report titled "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks" analyzes the sources and effects of geoeconomic risks, linking them to the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - It identifies that current geoeconomic risks stem from internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which are expected to deepen [2]. - The negative spillover effects of these risks have impacted China's real economy, financial markets, international trade, investment systems, global supply chains, and international financial markets [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The report suggests that promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and driving reforms in the international monetary system are crucial for mitigating geoeconomic risks [2]. - Data indicates that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, alongside diversification in the global payment system and official reserve currencies [2]. Group 3: Forum Structure and Participation - The forum featured four thematic discussions, including "Research Results on Geoeconomic Risks" and "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System" [3]. - The International Monetary Forum, initiated by Renmin University, has been held annually since 2012, attracting renowned experts and scholars from various regions to discuss significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current geopolitical economic risks stem from the concentrated outbreak of internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which will continue to deepen. Promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and driving reforms in the international monetary system are seen as important directions to mitigate these risks [1][2]. - The Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) shows an upward trend, indicating that the internationalization of the Renminbi is gradually adjusting the international monetary landscape. The RII values for the four quarters of 2024 are reported as 4.84, 7.40, 6.30, and 5.68, with an annual average of 6.06, reflecting an approximate 11% increase from the 2023 average of 5.46 [1][2]. - The report identifies the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary financial system as a "center-periphery" network structure, with the U.S. being the main source of global geopolitical economic risks. The U.S. government can exploit its unique privileges associated with the dollar, using unilateral policies as economic weapons against other countries [2]. Group 2 - Geopolitical economic risks negatively impact China's real economy and financial markets, as well as the international trade investment system, global supply chains, and international financial markets. The internationalization of the Renminbi is viewed as an effective response to these risks [2]. - The report notes that the fragmentation of cross-border payment networks is becoming more pronounced due to geopolitical economic risks. While the dollar's international monetary status may be temporarily reinforced, the rise of regional and local currency settlements will exert long-term pressure on dollar hegemony [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for countries, including China, to prepare for the impacts of geopolitical economic risks initiated by central countries. It also calls for seeking fundamental solutions to these risks through perspectives such as great power strategic competition, international monetary system reform, and global financial governance reform [3].

Group 1 - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" focused on geopolitical economic risks and global financial governance reform, discussing strategies to address these risks and the impact of digital currencies on the international monetary system [1] - Experts emphasized the need for new solutions in global governance, with China positioning itself as a key player in financial governance reform through high-level financial openness and cautious internationalization of the RMB [1][2] - The current international monetary system, evolving from the Bretton Woods system, faces structural issues, including insufficient stability of the dollar-dominated financial system and weakened global confidence in the dollar zone [2] Group 2 - Five reform suggestions were proposed to improve the international monetary system, reduce negative spillover effects of monetary policy, reform international financial organizations, enhance international financial regulatory cooperation, and oppose financial hegemony [2] - The relationship between geopolitical economic risks and RMB internationalization was highlighted, indicating that rising geopolitical risk indices correlate with increased RMB internationalization indices [3] - The need for a market-oriented, rule-based approach to RMB internationalization was emphasized, focusing on optimizing asset quality, expanding long-term capital market entry, and strengthening the rule of law [3] Group 3 - The impact of digital currencies on the global financial landscape was discussed, with concerns raised about systemic financial risks associated with stablecoins and the potential instability of the dollar if the U.S. fails to address its twin deficits [3] - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, driven by the U.S. and China, with trade, technology, resources, and climate being key influencing areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," highlighting the need for new solutions in global governance amid rising geopolitical conflicts and financial instability [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum was co-hosted by Renmin University of China and Nankai University, attracting over 500 in-person attendees and more than 500,000 online viewers [1]. - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent figures including former central bank governors and university presidents, discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2][11]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The opening remarks emphasized the urgency for reform in global financial governance to address challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and protectionism [2][4]. - Discussions included the role of digital currencies in reshaping the international monetary system, with a focus on the risks associated with unilateral stablecoins and the need for a multilateral digital currency framework [4][14]. Group 3: Research Findings - The "2025 Renminbi Internationalization" report analyzed geoeconomic risks, linking them to the need for reform in the international monetary system and highlighting the negative spillover effects on China's economy and global supply chains [6]. - The report indicated that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, suggesting a correlation between these two factors [6]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Former central bank officials called for a comprehensive reform of the international monetary system to mitigate the adverse effects of geoeconomic risks and promote currency diversification [11][15]. - Experts highlighted the importance of collaboration in the financial sector to address challenges posed by trade, technology, resources, and climate risks, emphasizing China's leadership in green transformation [14]. Group 5: Future Directions - The forum concluded with discussions on the necessity of a stable legal framework and market-oriented reforms to support the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhance China's position in the global financial system [16][27].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" will be held on July 27 in Beijing, focusing on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform" with participation from renowned experts and scholars [2] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by Renmin University of China and Nankai University, with multiple institutions involved in its organization [2] - It has been held annually since 2012, making this the 14th edition, and aims to address significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [5] Group 2: Key Discussion Topics - Topics include "Research on Geoeconomic Risks," "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System," "History, Current Status, and Future of Global Financial Governance," and "Innovation and Application of Financial Large Models" [2] - The forum will also feature the release of the "Renminbi Internationalization Research Results" [3] Group 3: Geoeconomic Risks - The 2025 research results focus on "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks," analyzing the logic, evolution, and strategies for addressing these risks amid global challenges such as US-China trade tensions and Middle Eastern conflicts [6] - The research provides a dual framework of theory and practice to understand the complexities of geoeconomic risks, emphasizing the need for balance between open cooperation and risk prevention [6]