证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月22日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第二期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 展望后市，随着美国后续公布的经济数据逐渐摆脱停摆影响，市场将对当前的经济现实与未来的 降息路径进行再定价，市场在未来两周的波动率有望回升，需要对未来市场的波动加剧提高警惕。 过去两周的全球市场主要受美日央行货币政策的影响，国内市场主要受政策面与经济数据的影响。 12月FOMC降息25bp，并推出RMP工具缓和流动性，美元走势偏弱； 日央行加息落地，未明确后续加息节奏，日元弱势； 国内在政策面与基本面的交织影响下，市场无风险利率显著下行。 整体来看，过去两周全球市场表现一般，美元偏弱带来非美货币涨多跌少。 股市：偏弱行情下，创业板指与道指韧性强；A股国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息落地，明年降息预期稳定；中债国债利率普遍回落，信用利 ...

日本央行政策调整虽已落地，但其对市场的影响并未完全消散。下周更值得关注的是后续反应是否持 续：日元波动能否维持在高位、日本利率变化是否继续影响套利交易结构、亚洲时段资金流向是否出现 新的特征。若日元波动继续放大，可能对全球风险情绪形成阶段性扰动；反之，若波动快速收敛，市场 对该事件的敏感度将明显下降。 在本周一系列重磅宏观事件集中释放后，全球市场正逐步走出"事件驱动"的高波动阶段。非农就业、通 胀数据以及日本央行政策调整带来的第一轮冲击基本完成定价，下周市场运行逻辑将发生转变：关注重 点不再是方向选择，而是对既有预期的再校准，以及价格是否存在偏离。在这一阶段，行情未必缺乏波 动，但主导因素将从宏观结果本身，转向资金行为、结构变化与节奏把控。 过去一周，市场围绕明确的数据与政策节点快速反应，而进入下周后，短期内缺乏同等级别的新增变 量。市场注意力将更多集中在已公布信息的后续影响上，包括：当前利率路径是否已经被充分反映、通 胀与增长风险在定价中的权重是否需要重新分配、不同资产之间是否出现阶段性失衡。在这种环境下， 价格更容易围绕既有区间反复博弈，而不是迅速形成单边延展。 虽然下周并无新的利率决议，但美联储相关因素 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market shows significant differentiation due to policy changes, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1][2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provides short-term certainty and prompts the recovery of previously delayed economic data [1][2] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, the Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance, indicating that inflation has not yet reached a level that would justify interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The market is currently relying more on expectations for trading due to the delay in key data caused by the shutdown, leading to increased asset volatility [1][2] - Risk appetite in the market has been restored, with some funds flowing back into the stock market and high-beta assets, although the recovery is uneven across sectors [1][2] - The transition from a "defensive" to a "selective offensive" market approach resembles an emotional rebound rather than a trend-based recovery [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index stabilizes and rebounds, benefiting from the cooling of rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Gold is under pressure due to hawkish policy signals and rising yields, yet it remains within a strong support range [3] - Global stock markets continue to experience a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation among sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected rise in the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for August, which recorded 11.9, significantly surpassing the previous value of 5.5 and market expectations of 0, marking the highest level since November 2024 [2] - The timing of the data release is crucial, falling between the CPI and PPI reports and just before the Jackson Hole meeting, creating a pivotal moment for market direction [2] - The substantial deviation from market expectations is rare in macro data, prompting traders to quickly reassess their positions regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Upcoming significant events that could influence market direction include a speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the release of August non-farm payroll data on September 1, and the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 [3] - The non-farm payroll data on September 1 is expected to have a decisive impact on the Fed's interest rate cut decisions, with Powell needing to consolidate recent data for his speech [3] - Analysts warn that even dovish signals from Powell could lead to market sell-offs, as investors may "buy the rumor, sell the news" [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for the Chinese stock market and provides predictions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the next year and three years, offering insights for long-term investors [4] - A brief news item is interpreted as a signal of significant actions by the Federal Reserve in the coming three months, indicating that the timing of rate cuts is not the only factor affecting the market [4] - The article raises questions about the future of gold and the potential for a resurgence, along with strategies for investors [5]