Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly this week due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices broke through $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, there is expected to be a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival. The overall strategy is to buy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas interest rate cut expectations are positive for the overall trend. The aluminum ingot inventory is flat, and the aluminum product inventory is decreasing. The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. There are smelting overhauls in December, and the demand is seasonally weak. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. - **Nickel**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore market, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [8][9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is high. Considering the Indonesian policy, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - **Lead**: Lead prices rebounded this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose this week. The short - term fundamentals are okay, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first half of 2026 [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped this week. The short - term supply and demand are strong. The opening of upward elasticity in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: The LME cash - 3m spread increased, and copper prices broke through $11,000 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a structural supply - demand gap, and the global inventory is unevenly distributed. In China, the actual consumption has slowed down due to high prices [1]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices rose, and the LME 0 - 3M spread decreased [7]. - **Supply**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten, and there are smelting overhauls in December [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand varies [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased, and the inventory increased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Some prices increased slightly, and the inventory remained high [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production is high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rebounded, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the demand is expected to weaken [14]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week [14]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose, and the LME inventory increased [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the long - term supply is expected to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, medium - to - long - term long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated weakly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply is excessive [19]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations, long - term bottom - cycle fluctuations [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price dropped, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the future upward elasticity depends on inventory reduction [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a strategy of buying on dips, with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be relatively loose in supply and demand at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - Zinc prices may be difficult to fall deeply in the short - term, with suggestions to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. - Nickel presents a weak short - term fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week, and caution is required due to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [19]. - Lithium carbonate shows a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, the LME cash - 3m spread soared due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices exceeded $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap, and inventory distribution is uneven globally. In China, consumption slowed down due to high prices, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. After the FOMC meeting in December, attention should be paid to whether the US dollar index rebounds, and the price is expected to range between $10,800 - $12,000 [1]. Aluminum - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. Demand at the end of the year is good. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply from domestic and imported mines is tightening, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US imports have increased. With the opening of the export window, domestic social inventory has decreased, and the premium has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills maintained high production. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. Nickel and chromium prices were stable. Inventory remained high. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Lead - Lead prices rebounded this week. Primary lead production remained high, while concentrate production declined seasonally. Secondary lead production increased. Battery demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. Tin - Tin prices were driven up by the non - ferrous metals sector. The processing fee for tin ore remained low. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices have stimulated inventory exports. Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs. Short - term fundamentals are good, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. It can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated weakly this week. Terminal procurement was average. Southwest producers cut production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production. In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market declined significantly this week due to the resumption of production in Jiangxi and Ningde and the expectation of a power - consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. The opening of upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21].