Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly this week due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices broke through $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, there is expected to be a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival. The overall strategy is to buy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas interest rate cut expectations are positive for the overall trend. The aluminum ingot inventory is flat, and the aluminum product inventory is decreasing. The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. There are smelting overhauls in December, and the demand is seasonally weak. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. - **Nickel**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore market, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [8][9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is high. Considering the Indonesian policy, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - **Lead**: Lead prices rebounded this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose this week. The short - term fundamentals are okay, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first half of 2026 [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped this week. The short - term supply and demand are strong. The opening of upward elasticity in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: The LME cash - 3m spread increased, and copper prices broke through $11,000 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a structural supply - demand gap, and the global inventory is unevenly distributed. In China, the actual consumption has slowed down due to high prices [1]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices rose, and the LME 0 - 3M spread decreased [7]. - **Supply**: The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten, and there are smelting overhauls in December [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand varies [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price decreased, and the inventory increased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Some prices increased slightly, and the inventory remained high [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production is high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices rebounded, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the demand is expected to weaken [14]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week [14]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose, and the LME inventory increased [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the long - term supply is expected to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, medium - to - long - term long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated weakly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply is excessive [19]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations, long - term bottom - cycle fluctuations [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price dropped, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the future upward elasticity depends on inventory reduction [21].

·东方汇理：美联储降息预期升温叠加主席人选变动，美元承压走弱 ·ASB银行：新西兰联储降息态度谨慎，除非数据显著走弱否则难再宽松 ·富国银行：消费者信心骤降、失业率攀升，消费情绪显著承压 【机构分析】 ·安永首席经济学家表示，澳大利亚通胀压力加剧，澳储行面临严峻政策挑战，虽年内已三次降息，但 效果尚未完全显现；鉴于下次议息会议在2026年2月，不排除12月紧急加息可能，货币政策或迎重大转 向。 ·三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师指出，日本央行正有意在12月加息前充分引导市场预期，避免引发意 外。鉴于首相高市早苗和财务大臣片山皋月均未反对加息，12月行动可能性高于明年1月。 ·Man Group策略师表示，尽管有观点认为日本新政府或压制加息，但日本央行展现强烈货币政策正常化 意愿。美联储12月决议将直接影响日元走势及日本央行决策压力：若美联储按兵不动，日元或续贬，加 剧日本加息紧迫性。 ·10年期美债收益率一个月来首度跌破4%，摩根大通客户调查显示美债净多头头寸升至约15年高位。交 易员预计12月降息25个基点概率已飙升至80%，较数日前的30%大幅上升。鲍威尔及联储高层近期表态 偏鸽，叠加疲软就业数据，促使市场迅 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures at the production level [1][3] - The core PPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, further highlighting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Wholesale prices for September saw a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, primarily driven by rising gasoline costs, with energy price fluctuations being a major factor in wholesale inflation [5] Group 2 - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-over-month in September, which is lower than the previous value, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending [7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a complex scenario of inflationary pressures alongside slowing consumption and a weak labor market, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [9]

Core Viewpoint - A new Federal Reserve study suggests that tariffs may actually lower inflation by reducing demand, causing unemployment, and slowing economic activity, contradicting the establishment's narrative that tariffs are inflationary [1][4][9]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The study indicates that tariffs lead to a one-time price adjustment rather than an ongoing inflationary spiral, as inflation is defined by continuous price increases rather than singular adjustments [4][5]. - Tariffs can raise prices, leading to decreased consumption and slower economic activity, which may not necessarily result in inflation [8][9]. - The political narrative surrounding tariffs has shifted, with some parties attributing inflationary pressures to tariffs as a means to project blame onto previous administrations [6][14]. Consumption Trends - Current data does not show evidence of reduced consumer spending, with consumers remaining active despite tariff impacts [12][15]. - The perception of a tariff-induced recession is argued to be a political strategy rather than a reflection of economic reality, as GDP growth has been relatively strong [14][15]. Strategic Considerations - While tariffs may have negative economic effects, they could serve strategic purposes in trade relationships, particularly with countries like China [8]. - The discussion around tariffs and their economic implications has been influenced by political agendas, affecting how economic data is interpreted and communicated [14][15].

Core Insights - The spending willingness of young and low-income consumers in the U.S. is sharply declining, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending overall [1][4] - This trend is linked to the "student loan default cliff" and negative sentiment surrounding a potential government shutdown, which are pressuring consumers' financial situations and future expectations [4] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Low-income and younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, are showing a significant decrease in discretionary spending across various sectors including dining, apparel, beauty, home improvement, electronics, and travel [1] - The data is collected weekly from thousands of consumers to gauge spending likelihood in key areas [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reduction in spending willingness among these demographics could signal a broader consumption slowdown, posing challenges for the performance and stock prices of related public companies [4] - The U.S. economy heavily relies on consumer spending, making this trend a critical early warning for investors [4] Group 3: Government Policy Impact - In the context of low consumer sentiment, President Trump announced a plan suggesting that every American would receive a $2,000 "dividend" from tariffs, excluding high-income individuals [5] - The estimated cost of this "tariff refund" plan is projected to reach $600 billion, significantly exceeding the expected tariff revenue of approximately $300 billion, raising concerns among economists about potential inflation [5]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 301.07 points (0.65%) at 45952.24, the Nasdaq down 107.54 points (0.47%) at 22562.54, and the S&P 500 down 41.99 points (0.63%) at 6629.07 [1] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 91.56 points (0.38%) at 24272.93 and France's CAC40 up 110.36 points (1.37%) at 8187.36 [2] Banking Sector - Concerns over a credit crisis in U.S. regional banks led to significant declines in bank stock prices, with Zion Bank (ZION.US) falling 13.14% and Alliance West Bank (WAL.US) down 10.81% due to loan fraud allegations [1][10] - The market capitalization of the 74 largest U.S. banks dropped by over $100 billion amid rising credit crisis fears [10] Commodity Markets - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude for November delivery down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel (1.39%) and Brent crude down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel (1.37%) [2] - Gold prices reached a new high, closing at $4329.18 per ounce, marking a significant increase [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. housing market showed signs of improvement, with the NAHB housing market index rising 5 points to 37, the highest level in six months, although it remains below the neutral mark of 50 [5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed signs of slowing down in September, with a decrease in demand for non-essential goods [6][7] Corporate News - Apple (AAPL.US) is preparing to launch a new MacBook Pro featuring a touchscreen and M6 chip, expected to be released in late 2026 or early 2027 [11] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for ASML (ASML.US) from €900 to €1000 while maintaining a "buy" rating [13]

Group 1 - DBS Bank reports a significant decline in Asian demand for US dollars, with Asian countries holding substantial US assets seeing their currencies perform strongly against the dollar [1] - The return of funds to Singapore has led to a substantial decrease in short-term Singapore dollar interest rates [1] - The Bridgewater Associates notes that the slowdown in US consumer spending is affecting multiple sectors, including real estate, with signs of weakness in tourism, entertainment, and dining services [2] Group 2 - SEB Research predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will pause interest rate cuts in July, with two potential cuts in September and December, lowering the deposit rate from 2.00% to 1.50% [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a new stablecoin regulatory bill approved by the US Senate, which could strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global digital economy [2] - Allspring analysts indicate that the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, with potential rate cuts in September if inflation continues to decline towards the 2.0% target [3]