·东方汇理：美联储降息预期升温叠加主席人选变动，美元承压走弱 ·ASB银行：新西兰联储降息态度谨慎，除非数据显著走弱否则难再宽松 ·富国银行：消费者信心骤降、失业率攀升，消费情绪显著承压 【机构分析】 ·安永首席经济学家表示，澳大利亚通胀压力加剧，澳储行面临严峻政策挑战，虽年内已三次降息，但 效果尚未完全显现；鉴于下次议息会议在2026年2月，不排除12月紧急加息可能，货币政策或迎重大转 向。 ·三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师指出，日本央行正有意在12月加息前充分引导市场预期，避免引发意 外。鉴于首相高市早苗和财务大臣片山皋月均未反对加息，12月行动可能性高于明年1月。 ·Man Group策略师表示，尽管有观点认为日本新政府或压制加息，但日本央行展现强烈货币政策正常化 意愿。美联储12月决议将直接影响日元走势及日本央行决策压力：若美联储按兵不动，日元或续贬，加 剧日本加息紧迫性。 ·10年期美债收益率一个月来首度跌破4%，摩根大通客户调查显示美债净多头头寸升至约15年高位。交 易员预计12月降息25个基点概率已飙升至80%，较数日前的30%大幅上升。鲍威尔及联储高层近期表态 偏鸽，叠加疲软就业数据，促使市场迅 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）当地时间25日，美国政府部门的数据显示，经季节调整后，美国9月生产者价格指数（PPI），较上月上升0.3%，较去年同 期上升2.7%，9月零售销售月率则小幅上涨。这些数据原定于10月发布，但因美国联邦政府"停摆"而推迟，它们也是美联储在下月作出利率决定前关 注的关键通胀指标。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国9月PPI环比上升0.3%，同比上升2.7%；当月核心PPI环比增长0.1%，同比增长2.6%，表明生产端的通胀压力依然存 在。 此外，美国9月批发商品价格环比上涨0.9%，其中60%的涨幅归因于汽油成本上升。能源价格波动继续成为批发通胀的主要驱动因素。相比之下，服 务成本在9月环比持平。这表明批发环节的价格压力主要集中在商品领域。分析认为，面对进口关税上调等带来的成本压力，企业可能因为担心客户 流失而限制了价格的上涨幅度。 同一天，美国人口普查局公布的数据显示，美国9月零售销售月率环比上涨0.2%，低于前值。零售销售增速放缓，表明美国消费者的支出动能可能在 第三季度末减弱。 分析认为，当前美国经济呈现出通胀压力与消费放缓、劳动力市场疲软并存的复杂局面，这使得美联储在12月的货币政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new Federal Reserve study suggests that tariffs may actually lower inflation by reducing demand, causing unemployment, and slowing economic activity, contradicting the establishment's narrative that tariffs are inflationary [1][4][9]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The study indicates that tariffs lead to a one-time price adjustment rather than an ongoing inflationary spiral, as inflation is defined by continuous price increases rather than singular adjustments [4][5]. - Tariffs can raise prices, leading to decreased consumption and slower economic activity, which may not necessarily result in inflation [8][9]. - The political narrative surrounding tariffs has shifted, with some parties attributing inflationary pressures to tariffs as a means to project blame onto previous administrations [6][14]. Consumption Trends - Current data does not show evidence of reduced consumer spending, with consumers remaining active despite tariff impacts [12][15]. - The perception of a tariff-induced recession is argued to be a political strategy rather than a reflection of economic reality, as GDP growth has been relatively strong [14][15]. Strategic Considerations - While tariffs may have negative economic effects, they could serve strategic purposes in trade relationships, particularly with countries like China [8]. - The discussion around tariffs and their economic implications has been influenced by political agendas, affecting how economic data is interpreted and communicated [14][15].

Core Insights - The spending willingness of young and low-income consumers in the U.S. is sharply declining, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending overall [1][4] - This trend is linked to the "student loan default cliff" and negative sentiment surrounding a potential government shutdown, which are pressuring consumers' financial situations and future expectations [4] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Low-income and younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, are showing a significant decrease in discretionary spending across various sectors including dining, apparel, beauty, home improvement, electronics, and travel [1] - The data is collected weekly from thousands of consumers to gauge spending likelihood in key areas [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reduction in spending willingness among these demographics could signal a broader consumption slowdown, posing challenges for the performance and stock prices of related public companies [4] - The U.S. economy heavily relies on consumer spending, making this trend a critical early warning for investors [4] Group 3: Government Policy Impact - In the context of low consumer sentiment, President Trump announced a plan suggesting that every American would receive a $2,000 "dividend" from tariffs, excluding high-income individuals [5] - The estimated cost of this "tariff refund" plan is projected to reach $600 billion, significantly exceeding the expected tariff revenue of approximately $300 billion, raising concerns among economists about potential inflation [5]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 301.07 points (0.65%) at 45952.24, the Nasdaq down 107.54 points (0.47%) at 22562.54, and the S&P 500 down 41.99 points (0.63%) at 6629.07 [1] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 91.56 points (0.38%) at 24272.93 and France's CAC40 up 110.36 points (1.37%) at 8187.36 [2] Banking Sector - Concerns over a credit crisis in U.S. regional banks led to significant declines in bank stock prices, with Zion Bank (ZION.US) falling 13.14% and Alliance West Bank (WAL.US) down 10.81% due to loan fraud allegations [1][10] - The market capitalization of the 74 largest U.S. banks dropped by over $100 billion amid rising credit crisis fears [10] Commodity Markets - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude for November delivery down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel (1.39%) and Brent crude down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel (1.37%) [2] - Gold prices reached a new high, closing at $4329.18 per ounce, marking a significant increase [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. housing market showed signs of improvement, with the NAHB housing market index rising 5 points to 37, the highest level in six months, although it remains below the neutral mark of 50 [5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed signs of slowing down in September, with a decrease in demand for non-essential goods [6][7] Corporate News - Apple (AAPL.US) is preparing to launch a new MacBook Pro featuring a touchscreen and M6 chip, expected to be released in late 2026 or early 2027 [11] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for ASML (ASML.US) from €900 to €1000 while maintaining a "buy" rating [13]

Group 1 - DBS Bank reports a significant decline in Asian demand for US dollars, with Asian countries holding substantial US assets seeing their currencies perform strongly against the dollar [1] - The return of funds to Singapore has led to a substantial decrease in short-term Singapore dollar interest rates [1] - The Bridgewater Associates notes that the slowdown in US consumer spending is affecting multiple sectors, including real estate, with signs of weakness in tourism, entertainment, and dining services [2] Group 2 - SEB Research predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will pause interest rate cuts in July, with two potential cuts in September and December, lowering the deposit rate from 2.00% to 1.50% [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a new stablecoin regulatory bill approved by the US Senate, which could strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global digital economy [2] - Allspring analysts indicate that the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, with potential rate cuts in September if inflation continues to decline towards the 2.0% target [3]