【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：美元下挫，整体偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【行情分析】 沪铜低开高走，日内上涨。供给方面，在本周四，卡普斯通铜业公司称，因最大工 会与公司未达成集体谈判协议引发罢工，致其位于智利的曼托韦德铜矿停产，该矿预计 2025 年阴极铜产量为 2.9 万至 3.2 万吨。TC/RC 费用保持弱稳，且出现进一步下探的趋 势，市场对供应端紧张的态度未曾改变。SMM 根据各家排产情况，预计 1 月国内电解铜 产量环比下降 1.45 万吨降幅为 1.23%，同比增加 15.63 万吨升幅为 14.78%。需求方面， 截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。临近春节叠加 铜价高企，大多中小企业开启放假，对原料端的采购意愿低迷，终端新能源汽车表现不 佳，其他传统行业冰箱及空调等有出现小幅的上涨。美国对铜关税征收的预期减弱后， C-L 价差收敛，美国铜库存或有外溢，非美库存有增加，若持续价差收敛，全球由铜关 税引起的库存结构失衡将缓解，整体供应端或边际转好，故铜盘面我们预计短期高位震 荡为主，美元指数大幅下跌提振有色行情，但下游的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on the industry investment ratings in the reports [1][4][6][8][9][10][11][13][14][17] Group 2: Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, the tin price is expected to remain strong throughout the year. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on price pullbacks. Keep an eye on macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1] Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of the export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The upward range of refined zinc production is limited, and the domestic supply pressure is relieved. The demand side has a structural improvement, but the downstream terminal demand remains stable. The LME inventory is continuously accumulating, and attention should be paid to the structural risk. The short - term price decline space is limited, and the domestic zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4] Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives the copper price to rise rapidly, and the price volatility may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the bottom center of copper prices to gradually rise. Pay attention to the structural changes of domestic and foreign inventories and the risk of short squeezes [6] Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but be cautious of the retracement risk after the price peaks. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate in the range of 21700 - 22500 yuan/ton this week. Focus on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting and the actual destocking situation of domestic inventories [8] Industrial Silicon - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price falls to around 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures may continue to oscillate at a high level, but considering the weak demand, the spot price has limited upward momentum. It is more likely that the futures price will decline to converge with the spot price. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [10] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change of downstream procurement rhythm [11][12] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in macro - expectations and the industrial policy news from Indonesia [13] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, with the main contract running range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation strength of steel mills' production cuts and the change of raw material prices [14] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92000 - 96000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of demand in the off - season [17] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Tin - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25%. The import loss decreased by 1289.45 yuan/ton to 15329.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.76%. The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 2918 tons to 11632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. The SMM refined tin output in October increased by 2580 tons to 16090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23130 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 549.10 yuan/ton to 4330 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decrease of 3.56%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 1.66% to 58.20% [4] Copper - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The import loss decreased by 154.47 yuan/ton to 1074 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 2.71 million tons to 75.02 million tons, a rise of 3.75% [6] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%. The electrolytic aluminum import loss increased by 103 yuan/ton to 1856 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.44%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decrease of 2.82% [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5696.77% [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 11.17%. The national start - up rate decreased by 3.30% to 64.82% [9] Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 965 yuan/ton to 54545 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.51% [10] - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. The monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decrease of 14.48% [10] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%. The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11] Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33345 tons, a decrease of 9.38%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42508 tons, a rise of 4.23% [13] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14] - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.72%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19674 tons to 64560 tons, a decrease of 23.36% [17]