晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位运行。宏观上市场目前押注美联储将在下个月再次 降息。周四推迟公布的美国非农就业报告对劳动力市场的描述喜忧参半， 几乎没有改变美联储在 12 月降息的预期，因为决策者们仍在美国政府停摆 带来的经济迷雾中犹豫不决。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Semi - finished Products**: The price of coke and semi - finished products is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The price center has shifted downward, and it is running weakly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][3]. - **Aluminum Ingot**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The industry has entered the traditional off - season, with overall weak demand. The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke and Semi - finished Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance from mid - January are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Coke and semi - finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with pessimistic sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingot - **Bauxite Supply**: During the environmental inspection period, the supply of domestic bauxite in the north remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment of imported bauxite has increased, providing support for future arrivals [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry have deepened. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern with a 59.8% operating rate; the aluminum cable has a slight increase in the operating rate to 62.4% due to grid orders. However, most sectors are under downward pressure, with the operating rates of aluminum sheet, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil showing different trends [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is influenced by a mix of long and short sentiments. There are still expectations of a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends. The price is expected to run at a high level, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and showing a weak operation [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with prices remaining at a high level. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, one of the 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2]. 铝锭 (Aluminum Ingot) - Macroscopically, since mid - September, the US dollar has continued to rebound, with traders more optimistic about the US economic growth prospects, and many Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1]. - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although mines in Shanxi and Henan affected by environmental policies and the rainy season can resume production with government approval, some compliant mines may resume production on a small scale by the end of the year. With sufficient imported sources, some miners increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and domestic bauxite prices are expected to remain stable [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2]. - On November 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and flat from last Monday. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which is expected to have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2]. - Overseas, due to high import tariffs and tight global supply, the premium of the US spot aluminum market has reached a record high [2].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is dated October 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Products (Chengcai) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Steel products are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with prices moving downward and the center of gravity shifting lower due to a weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment, and a lackluster winter storage season [1][3] - **Summary**: - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will shut down for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Later concerns include macro policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Aluminum Products - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with high - level fluctuations. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but macro overseas events affect market sentiment [1][4] - **Summary**: - On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 618,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The overall开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, with some sectors showing different trends [3] - The market is waiting for the US September CPI data, with an expected 0.4% month - on - month increase in overall CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI [2] - Later concerns include macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][3] - The fundamentals of aluminum ingots are operating steadily, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, showing a relatively strong trend [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region, the shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown period [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingot - In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to bring a further increase in aluminum ingot production, with the daily average output expected to rise further. The spot price of alumina maintains a weak operation, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline month - on - month [3] - This week, the average operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the second half of the month and approach the annual high. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises is stable at 68%, but it is expected to gradually decline. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64% and is expected to continue its weak and stable performance in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5% and is expected to be stable but weak in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3% but may decline due to weak terminal demand. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6% and is expected to continue to decline slightly in October [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Overseas macro - interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The later focus is on the trends of inventory and consumption. The later focus also includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at mines, and the release of consumption [4]