Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间调整。鲍威尔在美国国会作证时表示，他和许多官 员都预计通胀将很快开始上升，美联储并不急于在此期间降低借贷成本， 但美元仍然下跌。以色列和伊朗停火缓解地缘风险，降低资 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡。数据显示，美国本月消费者信心指数跃升至 60.5，高于市场预期。本周美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要， 关注海外宏观对市场情绪的指引。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：旺季尾声 关注本周宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动 ...