Core Viewpoint - The express delivery prices in Shanghai are set to increase starting September 22, 2025, as part of a broader industry effort to combat "involution" and stabilize market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Major express companies including "Shunfeng, YTO, ZTO, and JD" have announced price increases in Shanghai, following similar trends in Guangdong and Zhejiang [1]. - The price increase in Shanghai is expected to be modest, with previous adjustments in Guangdong seeing increases of 0.4 to 0.5 yuan, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1][3]. - The adjustments are primarily aimed at low-priced e-commerce shipments, with minimal impact on personal delivery services [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The express delivery industry has been experiencing intense price wars, leading to increased workloads for frontline staff without corresponding wage increases [2][6]. - The ongoing price competition has resulted in a disconnect between prices and costs, prompting regulatory bodies to intervene and promote price stabilization [4][6]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy has been emphasized by the State Post Bureau to curb unhealthy competition and improve service quality [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Companies are optimistic about the potential for price recovery and improved profitability as the anti-involution measures take effect across more regions [5][6]. - The industry is expected to shift towards value competition rather than price competition, with a focus on service upgrades and operational efficiency [6][7]. - Experts suggest that if price competition continues to escalate, it may lead to industry-wide interventions to ensure sustainability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in express delivery fees across various regions is aimed at alleviating losses and improving the competitive landscape of the industry [3][6][15] Summary by Sections Price Increase Trends - Recent announcements of express fee increases have been made in regions including Hubei, Tianjin, Shandong, and Liaoning, following earlier adjustments in Zhejiang and Guangdong [4] - For instance, in Heilongjiang, major express brands, including YTO, announced price hikes effective September 20, citing the need to return to rational competition [4] Impact on Operations - The price increase has led to noticeable changes at frontline outlets, with reports indicating significant improvements in financial conditions and cash flow for many [7][8] - An outlet manager in Yiwu noted that prior to the price hike, some outlets faced monthly losses of tens of thousands, which have since improved due to the price adjustments [8] Customer Acceptance - The general sentiment among outlet managers is that if all brands uniformly raise prices, customer acceptance will not be a major issue [10][13] - A regional manager indicated that the price increase was coordinated by the postal authority and all express brands, ensuring a collective approach to the adjustment [11] Market Dynamics - The price hikes are expected to slow down the ongoing price wars in the industry, with a belief that a collective increase can foster a fairer competitive environment [14] - Regulatory bodies are closely monitoring the pricing competition within the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need to address issues of "involution" and unfair pricing practices [14] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the trend of price increases will continue, potentially leading to a more optimized market structure where competition shifts from price to value [15] - The top eight express companies currently hold an 85% market share, indicating a move towards consolidation and higher industry concentration as smaller players may exit the market [15]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in express delivery fees is expected to alleviate the loss pressure on companies and improve the long-standing "price war" in the industry [1][5] Summary by Sections Price Increase Trends - The trend of increasing express delivery fees continues, with regions such as Hubei, Tianjin, Shandong, and Liaoning recently announcing fee hikes, following earlier adjustments in Zhejiang and Guangdong [2] - In Heilongjiang, major express brands announced price increases effective September 20, aimed at rationalizing competition and addressing cost issues [2] Impact on Operations - One express outlet in Yiwu reported significant improvements in its financial situation following the fee increase, with losses previously reaching tens of thousands per month now showing signs of recovery [7] - The outlet's cash flow has improved, with a potential increase of 1 million in liquidity for large outlets if prices rise by 0.1 yuan per package [7] Customer Reactions - The outlet manager noted that if all brands uniformly adjust prices nationwide, customer acceptance would likely be high [9] - Despite some instances of outlets offering rebates to retain customers, the overall market remains stable, with 90% of clients reportedly unaffected by the price hikes [11] Industry Dynamics - The price adjustments are being coordinated by the postal administration, with all express brands participating, indicating a collective effort to stabilize the market [10] - The increase in fees is seen as a necessary step to enhance the survival and self-sustaining capabilities of outlets, as well as to improve the welfare of frontline workers [10] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the price increases will continue, with a potential nationwide implementation around the National Day holiday, leading to a shift from price competition to value competition in the industry [12][13] - The top eight express companies now hold an 85% market share, indicating a move towards industry consolidation and optimization [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese express delivery industry, while being the largest in the world, is facing severe challenges due to intense price wars leading to unsustainable competition and financial losses for many companies [1][11]. Industry Overview - In the first half of the year, the total express delivery volume in China reached 95.64 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [11]. - Despite the growth in volume, the average price per delivery has dropped nearly 8% to 7.5 yuan, with some regions offering extreme low prices as low as 0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery [11]. Financial Impact - Many express delivery outlets, particularly in Shenzhen, are experiencing significant revenue declines despite increases in package volume, with some reporting revenue drops of 20% to 30% [7]. - For instance, one outlet reported an average daily loss of 5,000 to 8,000 yuan, leading to monthly losses of approximately 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [7]. Workforce Challenges - The ongoing price wars have resulted in high turnover rates among delivery personnel, with some workers leaving the industry for more stable jobs, such as food delivery [9]. - There are reports of staff shortages at some outlets, leading to backlogs in package deliveries [9].

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a "Spring and Autumn" phase (2017-2019) characterized by high growth and light asset models to a "Warring States" phase (2020 onwards) marked by heavy asset investments and price wars [3][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Decline Factors**: The decline in single ticket revenue is attributed to three main factors: cost-driven efficiencies, rational competition, and irrational price wars. The past five years have seen revenue declines primarily driven by cost factors such as scale effects and automation upgrades [1][4][20]. - **Impact of New Entrants**: The entry of Jitu in 2020 triggered irrational price wars, leading to a decline in industry performance and valuations, putting pressure on networks and couriers [1][8]. - **Regulatory Actions**: Local governments, such as in Yiwu, have implemented measures to raise minimum delivery prices to curb irrational competition, which has stabilized the network and improved valuations for lower-ranked companies [1][9]. - **Market Recovery**: Following the anti-involution actions in 2021, leading companies regained market share, and single ticket revenue increased, significantly restoring profitability [10][11]. - **Future Price Competition**: The industry is expected to enter another price competition phase in the second half of 2024, with intensified price wars anticipated post-Chinese New Year in 2025 [1][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regulatory Influence**: The effectiveness of the anti-involution measures heavily relies on regulatory strength, which has shown to alleviate competitive pressures in the short term and promote healthy competition in the long term [2][16]. - **Profitability Elasticity**: Future profitability in the express delivery sector will depend on the sustainability of price increases and regulatory actions. Current net profits for major companies are low, indicating a need for effective price adjustments to enhance profitability [17][21]. - **Long-term Implications**: The current anti-involution measures are expected to foster a healthy competitive environment, leading to industry consolidation and the rise of leading companies, ultimately benefiting consumers and investors alike [22]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry is at a critical juncture, with regulatory measures playing a pivotal role in shaping its future. The focus on sustainable pricing and profitability recovery presents significant investment opportunities in the sector, particularly for leading companies poised for growth in a more stable competitive landscape [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate a rise in express delivery fees across multiple regions, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang, which are major e-commerce hubs. This price increase is expected to exert direct cost pressure on e-commerce businesses [1] Group 1: Price Increase Details - Several express delivery companies in Guangdong have raised prices for e-commerce clients, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per order, establishing a minimum price of 1.4 yuan per order [1] - Guangdong is highlighted as a key area for this price adjustment, being the largest market for express delivery services and previously experiencing extremely low prices, such as 0.8 yuan for nationwide delivery [1] Group 2: Impact on E-commerce Businesses - A merchant in Guangdong reported that although the price increase per order is minimal, the large volume of orders results in an additional monthly cost of at least 30,000 yuan, which is challenging to pass on to consumers through price hikes [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry has been engaged in a prolonged price war, with the average price per delivery dropping from 28.55 yuan in 2007 to 7.49 yuan by June of this year, according to data from the State Post Bureau [1] - Statistics from China Merchants Securities indicate that from January to May 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 788 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, while the average price per delivery fell by 8.2% to 7.5 yuan, reflecting a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices [1] Group 4: Regulatory Response - In response to ongoing "involution" within the industry, the State Post Bureau held a meeting with express delivery companies in July, expressing opposition to "involution-style" competition and emphasizing the need for enhanced regulation, improved market rules, and legal measures against malicious price competition to promote high-quality industry development [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed strong growth in July 2025, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and volume at 16.4 billion pieces, marking year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1][2] - Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the industry generated 839.42 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, and handled 112.05 billion pieces, reflecting an 18.7% growth [1][2] Industry Data - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume figures: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and YTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [3] - The volume for these companies was 1.377 billion, 2.181 billion, 2.162 billion, and 2.583 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.7%, 11.9%, 7.6%, and 20.8% [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the revenue figures were: SF Express at 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), Shentong at 28.980 billion yuan (+14.8%), Yunda at 28.851 billion yuan (+7.1%), and YTO at 37.943 billion yuan (+13.9%) [4] - The volume for the same period was 9.190 billion, 14.528 billion, 14.888 billion, and 17.446 billion pieces, with growth rates of 26.9%, 19.3%, 15.1%, and 21.6% respectively [4] Market Trends - The express delivery industry is benefiting from changes in demand, such as the trend towards lighter and smaller packages, an increase in reverse logistics, and the advantages of lower-tier markets [5] - The growth in volume is significantly outpacing the retail sales growth (+4.8%) and the growth in online retail sales (+6.3%), indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry is experiencing a price war, which is impacting per-package revenue, but there are signs of a shift towards more orderly competition as major players adjust their strategies [5] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6] - Companies to watch include leading e-commerce express firms such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as SF Express, which is expected to benefit from cyclical improvements in the mid-to-high-end market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant shift against internal competition, with companies preparing for a new price war as delivery prices increase. The ongoing growth in delivery volume is expected to sustain this competitive pricing environment [1] Industry Summary - The express delivery sector is currently witnessing a trend of rising prices, indicating a departure from previous internal competition practices [1] - Companies are gearing up for a "real" price war, suggesting that competitive dynamics are intensifying as they respond to market conditions [1] - The continuous high growth in delivery volume is a key factor that will likely perpetuate the cycle of price competition within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increase in the express delivery industry in Guangdong, which is seen as a response to the ongoing price war and declining average prices in the sector. The price adjustment is expected to have significant implications for the market dynamics and competition among delivery companies [4][6]. Group 1: Price Increase and Market Dynamics - Guangdong's express delivery base price was raised to 1.4 yuan per ticket, marking a 40% increase, aimed at curbing low-price competition and ensuring market stability [4][6]. - The express delivery sector in Guangdong is crucial, accounting for approximately 25% of the national total, with 234.3 billion packages sent in the first half of the year [4][6]. - Despite the price increase, the underlying issues of fierce competition and price wars in the express delivery industry remain unresolved [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Price Trends - The average price per express delivery ticket in China dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [6]. - Over the past five years, the express delivery industry has experienced a continuous decline in average ticket prices, with a total decrease of 32% [11][22]. - The express delivery market has seen a tenfold increase in volume over the past decade, with a projected 1.758 billion packages to be delivered in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [22][29]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The express delivery industry is characterized by intense competition, with major players struggling to establish a stable market structure. The top eight companies hold 85.2% of the market share, a modest increase of 2.7% over five years [19][22]. - The market remains fragmented, with new entrants and investments continuing to flood in, exacerbating the price competition [26][29]. - The industry's growth is heavily tied to the e-commerce sector, which drives demand for delivery services, further intensifying competition among providers [26][29]. Group 4: Investment and Operational Challenges - Companies in the express delivery sector are investing heavily in fixed assets, such as sorting facilities and transportation vehicles, often outpacing revenue growth [27][29]. - The fixed asset growth for companies like YTO Express has been significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating a focus on capacity expansion despite ongoing price wars [27][29]. - The article suggests that as long as the express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, the price wars are unlikely to cease, creating a challenging environment for profitability [29].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in Guangdong has implemented a price increase, raising the minimum cost per ticket to 1.4 yuan, which is expected to stabilize the financial situation of many delivery companies after a prolonged period of low pricing competition [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - Starting from August 5, the overall base price for express delivery in Guangdong has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average price exceeding 1.4 yuan [1]. - The increase in base price is aimed at ensuring that no express delivery company can collect below the cost price of 1.4 yuan, particularly affecting e-commerce clients who have high delivery demands [1]. - Prior to Guangdong, the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province had already initiated a price increase mechanism, raising the base price from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Background - The express delivery industry has been suffering from a "low-price for volume" competition model, leading to reduced profit margins for grassroots outlets and poor service quality [2]. - The average price per ticket for express delivery in China has significantly decreased from 28.55 yuan in 2007 to 7.49 yuan as of June this year [2]. - Major express companies like SF Express, Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and Zhongtong have seen their average ticket revenues drop by approximately 40% since their listings in 2017, with only Zhongtong showing a slight increase [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The State Post Bureau has emphasized the need for stronger industry regulation and has opposed "involutionary" competition, aiming to improve service quality in the express delivery sector [3]. - Following these regulatory discussions, stocks of major express companies have surged, with Yunda's stock price increasing by 22.4%, Shentong by 47.54%, YTO by 28.57%, and Zhongtong by 13.72% [3][4].