Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the policy expectation persists, with the possibility of re - heating. From a practical perspective, there is significant short - term warehouse receipt pressure, and the delivery logic is starting to play out. The market is characterized by a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the policy expectation yet to be falsified. There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there is huge short - term delivery pressure. The positive factors include the persistence of policy expectations and the logic of rising coal costs, while the negative factor is that the fundamental reality has not improved significantly, and the rigid demand is weakening [2] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for纯碱 is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.6% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of FG2509 futures at 1400 and sell 50% of FG509C1400 call options at 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy 50% of FG2509 futures at 1100 and sell 50% of FG509P1100 put options at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For high纯碱 product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of SA2509 futures at 1600 and sell 50% of SA509C1500 call options at 40 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low纯碱 procurement inventory, buy 50% of SA2509 futures at 1200 - 1250 and sell 50% of SA509P1260 put options at 40 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Glass Market Data Glass Futures - On July 29, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1368, up 34 (2.55%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1188, down 35 (-2.86%); the 01 contract was 1313, up 13 (1%) [4] Glass Spot - The average price of glass in Shahe on July 29, 2025, was 1278.2, down 7 from the previous day. Prices in different regions also showed fluctuations, such as a 10 - point decrease in North China and a 10 - point increase in South China [5] Group 6: Soda Ash Market Data Soda Ash Futures - On July 29, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1447, up 30 (2.12%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1318, up 2 (0.15%); the 01 contract was 1407, up 20 (1.44%) [6] Soda Ash Spot - The market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on July 29, 2025, with some exceptions like a 50 - point increase in heavy and light soda ash prices in the Northeast region [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Glass demand remains weakly expected, with low prices but lack of drivers and no unplanned cold repair expectations. If low prices persist, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations and the sustainability of speculative sentiment. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamental drivers are limited [2]. - The expectation of oversupply in the soda ash market remains consistent, and there are still new production capacities planned in the long - term. The cost is decreasing. Currently, maintenance has a very weak impact on the futures market, and cost support is insufficient. Further decline in the futures price requires a decrease in the spot price, and the driving force comes from a new round of production cuts on the demand side or further inventory accumulation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 72.2%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1000 - 1250, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.12% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.0% [1]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short glass futures (FG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1050, and sell call options (FG509 C1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40. For soda ash inventory management, short soda ash futures (SA2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1250, and sell call options (SA509 C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [1]. Core Contradictions - Glass: Demand is weakly expected, prices are low but lack drivers, and there are no unplanned cold repair expectations. Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of oversupply, new production capacities in the long - term, and cost reduction [2]. 利多 and 利空解读 - **Glass - Bullish factors**: Low prices may stimulate short - term speculative sentiment; if low prices persist, cold repair expectations may gradually increase; mid - stream inventory is relatively low. Bearish factors: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, actual demand is weak, and overall social inventory is high [2]. - **Soda ash - Bullish factors**: Low prices may lead to a phased improvement in manufacturers' order - signing; high export levels relieve domestic oversupply pressure. Bearish factors: Photovoltaic production has continuous kiln - mouth blockages, with an expected weakening of rigid demand; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; cost support is insufficient [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Glass**: On June 27, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1121 (up 8 or 0.72% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1019 (up 3 or 0.3%), and the 01 contract was 1077 (up 4 or 0.37%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 102 (up 5), the 9 - 1 month spread was - 58 (down 1), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 44 (down 4). The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 3 (down 8.8), and in Hubei was - 53 (up 54). The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 105.2 (down 3.8), and in Hubei was - 16 (up 1) [3][5]. - **Soda ash**: On June 27, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1215 (up 7 or 0.58% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1196 (up 16 or 1.36%), and the 01 contract was 1192 (up 20 or 1.71%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 19 (down 9 or 32.14%), the 9 - 1 month spread was 4 (down 4 or 50%), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 (up 13 or - 36.11%). The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 18 (down 16), and the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 236 (down 16) [7]. Spot Price Data - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass in Shahe on June 27, 2025, was 1124.2 (down 0.8 from the previous day). The prices in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Soda ash**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali spot prices in different regions remained stable on June 27, 2025 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: If glass prices remain low, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations. Although glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance has not provided short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and for the continuous downward momentum of the soda ash price, soda ash plants need to further reduce prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.0% [2]. - Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.3% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management: When the glass inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of FG2509 can be sold at 1100; 50% of FG509 C1200 can be sold at 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For soda ash inventory management: When the soda ash inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of SA2509 can be sold at 1300; 50% of SA509 C1300 can be sold at 30 - 40 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces overcapacity pressure in the future; it is in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold repair expectations have been triggered [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of overcapacity, and there are still new production capacities to be put into operation in the long - term; the cost is continuously decreasing, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.3.2 Bullish Factors - Glass: The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state, and the cold repair expectation will increase at low prices [3]. - Soda ash: Factory maintenance from May to June has been gradually implemented; export is better than expected, alleviating the domestic overcapacity pressure [3]. 3.3.3 Bearish Factors - Glass: There is still an expectation of furnace ignition on the supply side, and no large - scale cold repair is expected; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data 3.4.1 Glass - On June 3, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1069, down 27 (-2.46%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 954, down 28 (-2.85%); the price of 01 contract was 1014, down 29 (-2.78%) [3][5]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 115, up 1; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 60, up 1; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 55, down 2 [5]. - The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 62, unchanged; the 09 contract basis in Hubei was 86, up 28 [5]. - The average price of Shahe delivery products was 1130.8, unchanged. The prices in some regions decreased, such as - 20 in North China, - 10 in Northeast China, etc. [6]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - On June 3, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1221, down 18 (-1.45%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 1185, down 14 (-1.17%); the price of 01 contract was 1175, down 17 (-1.43%) [7]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 36, down 4 (-10%); the 9 - 1 month spread was 10, up 3 (42.86%); the 1 - 5 month spread was - 46, up 1 (-2.13%) [7]. - The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 50, up 10; the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 105, down 6 [7]. - The heavy - alkali market prices in some regions decreased, such as - 50 in North China, - 20 in East China, etc. [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Trades on long - term demand with a pessimistic outlook. There is still inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches, and the industry chain is expected to face over - supply pressure. The supply side remains at a low - level fluctuation, marginal production lines are in a loss state, and the cost of petroleum coke has slightly increased. However, there is still ignition expectation on the supply side, demand improvement is limited, production and sales are weak, and coal - gas cost has decreased [3]. -纯碱: The industry chain still has profits, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand and over - supply is difficult to reverse. Maintenance can only cause short - term disturbances. In May, there are more factory maintenance activities than in April, increasing supply disturbances. Rigid demand is stable, photovoltaic demand has improved, and exports continue to exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure. However, daily production is at a high level, new production capacity is being put into operation, and social inventory is at an absolute historical high [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.52% and a historical percentile of 77.1% in the past 3 years.纯碱 price is predicted to be in the range of 1200 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.66% and a historical percentile of 10.9% in the past 3 years [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1250 - 1300, and sell FG509C1400 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1050 - 1100, and sell FG509P1060 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 70 [2]. - **纯碱 Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1450 - 1500, and sell SA509C1500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1200 - 1250, and sell SA509P1200 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. Price and Basis Data - **Glass**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively, with daily increases of 0.37%, 0.09%, and 0.43%. The average price of沙河 glass delivery products was 1236.4, with a daily increase of 1.8 [4][5]. - **纯碱**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of纯碱 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15%, 0.07%, and 0.51%. The heavy - alkali market prices in North China, South China, and other regions remained unchanged, and the light - alkali market prices also remained stable [6][7][8].