成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 锰硅方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，在当前利润水平下，预计仍有下行驱动，不过四季度末有部分新增产能投产， 总体来看供应端平稳为主。需求端如硅铁部分所述，12月高炉密集检修结束后，1月进入了短暂复产周期，不过由于钢材库存开始 累积，预计对1月高炉复产高度有所压制。成本方面，港口锰矿库存仍处于同期低位，康密劳2月锰矿美金报价继续小幅上涨。总体 来看，锰硅自身供需有边际改善，成本推动下短期震荡偏强。 【策略】 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本 ...

Group 1 - In July, cotton yarn prices increased due to a significant rise in cotton prices, which pushed the cost of cotton yarn higher. The average monthly price of cotton in China reached approximately 14,741 yuan/ton, a 3.41% increase from the previous month, but a year-on-year decrease [1] - The profit margins for cotton spinning enterprises have declined, with the theoretical monthly gross profit for pure cotton yarn dropping to -720.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.15 yuan/ton from the previous month. The operating rate of cotton spinning enterprises was 61.20%, down 0.75 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Cotton spinning enterprises are experiencing a decrease in orders, with the average order days for Shandong cotton spinning enterprises at 4.93 days, a decline of 0.20 days from the previous month. The inventory days for pure cotton yarn increased by 11.11% to an average of 30 days [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is expected to return to fundamentals, with limited orders from downstream textile enterprises and poor profit margins potentially suppressing cotton demand. The anticipated increase in new season cotton production is also contributing to this outlook [2] - It is projected that cotton yarn prices may experience a slight decline in August, with an expected drop of 100 yuan/ton to a range of 21,100-21,700 yuan/ton. The situation will be closely monitored regarding order follow-ups and macro market changes [2]