Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising expectations for the year-end market rally, highlighting that private equity firms are maintaining high positions despite recent market adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Adjustments - Recent reports from various private equity firms indicate a continuation of strategies, with a focus on growth assets, although some structural adjustments are occurring, particularly in previously high-performing sectors like AI [2][3]. - The market has experienced a weak adjustment in November, with core indices declining and trading activity decreasing compared to the previous month. This adjustment is attributed to profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing by institutions, and a general risk-averse behavior among investors [3][4]. Group 2: Private Equity Positioning - As of November 21, 2025, the stock private equity position index reached 82.97%, marking a significant increase of 1.84% from the previous week and setting a new high for the year [4]. - The proportion of fully invested private equity firms (over 80% positions) has risen to 68.99%, while the shares of medium, low, and empty positions have decreased significantly [4]. Group 3: Future Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are optimistic about structural opportunities in the market, supported by favorable policies and liquidity conditions. They anticipate that the overall liquidity in A-shares will remain ample, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Investment focus is shifting towards high-certainty growth sectors, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and global supply chain restructuring, with an emphasis on manufacturing, semiconductors, and emerging consumer trends [5][6]. - Companies are advised to pay attention to assets at the bottom of their cycles and valuations, as these may offer lower risk and potential for significant returns in the medium term [6].

三是新一代消费群体的崛起，重塑消费认知与行为模式，推动新品牌、新品类、新体验的持续涌现。 在具体选择上，淡水泉投资将重点关注以下维度：业绩兑现的可见性、成长逻辑的可持续性，以及边际 催化因素的确定性。此外，随着反内卷政策推动部分行业产品价格逐步修复，叠加年末宏观数据关注度 上升，市场对明年经济预期的讨论预计将有所升温，淡水泉投资也将密切关注周期类资产在供需结构改 善背景下可能出现的配置机会。 据了解，随着成长类资产吸引力提升，淡水泉投资已加大对高确定性成长板块的布局。组合操作上，增 加电子板块中尚不拥挤的部分细分方向的仓位配置，优化电力设备的内在结构，并降低医药板块的持仓 比例。同时，面对市场波动，淡水泉投资密切跟踪企业基本面变化，动态评估机会潜力，为接下来潜在 的跨年与春季行情积极做好布局准备。 本报讯 （记者王宁）近日，A股市场整体呈现宽幅震荡走势，但部分成长板块表现突出。淡水泉（北 京）投资管理有限公司（以下简称"淡水泉投资"）相关人士对此向记者表示，临近年末，部分资金基于 兑现收益和结构调整的需要，呈现出一定的调仓压力，展望后市，本轮震荡行情并未改变A股中长期向 好趋势，短期波动过后，结构性机会仍在酝 ...

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on industries with upward trends, aiming to identify 3 to 5 main directions annually that have strong fundamentals and significant growth potential [2][3] - The investment approach includes selecting leading companies within chosen industries, emphasizing sectors such as technology, new energy, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [3][4] Group 2 - The portfolio management strategy involves adjusting the weight of value and growth assets based on market conditions and industry trends, while maintaining a balanced risk profile [4] - The current A-share market is viewed as undervalued, with growth assets expected to perform well due to supportive policies, ample liquidity, and steady economic recovery [5] - In the technology sector, there is a strong demand for optical modules and PCBs, with leading companies showing low valuations and high growth rates [5] - The new consumption sector is considered an important investment direction, particularly in areas with strong emotional attributes and significant overseas potential [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of dividend assets compared to growth assets in different market phases, highlighting the potential risks of dividend assets under certain market conditions, particularly during bull markets [4][26]. Market Phases Analysis - From 2014 to present, dividend assets have shown low volatility and steady growth, while growth assets like the ChiNext have experienced more dramatic fluctuations [6]. - In the early bull market phase (2014-2015), the dividend index rose by 177%, but growth stocks outperformed with a 194% increase in the ChiNext index [8]. - During the 2015 stock market crash, the dividend index fell by 44%, similar to the declines in the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [11]. - In the structural bull market phase (2016-2017), the dividend index increased by 44%, matching the CSI 300, while the ChiNext index only rose by 6% [14]. - In the bear market of 2018, the dividend index decreased by 25%, but it had the smallest decline compared to other indices [17]. - From 2019 to 2021, the dividend index only increased by 24%, significantly lagging behind the ChiNext's 170% rise [19]. - During the adjustment period (2021-2022), the dividend index fell by 4%, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [21]. - In the current oscillation phase (2022-2024), the dividend index has risen by 4%, while other indices have declined [23]. - Looking ahead to the potential explosive phase starting in Q4 2024, the dividend index is expected to lag behind growth styles due to a lack of valuation elasticity [25]. Investment Strategy Insights - The article concludes that while dividend assets may underperform in bull markets driven by risk appetite, they can perform well in structural bull markets where both valuation and earnings recover [26]. - Historical market trends indicate that a balanced asset allocation is essential for navigating different market environments and achieving sustainable returns [27].

Group 1 - Public funds are preparing for the second half of the year, with a significant increase in attention towards dividend assets, which are viewed as stable components in investment portfolios [1][2] - The average returns of active equity funds have shown recovery, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds returning 2.13% and 2.28% respectively year-to-date as of April 30, and a one-year return of 6.95% [1] - The price-performance ratio of dividend assets, such as the CSI Dividend Index, is at the 99th percentile of the past decade, indicating that these assets are currently among the most cost-effective options [2] Group 2 - Certain low-volatility sectors with high dividend yields, such as banking, ports, hydropower, and logistics, are expected to perform steadily due to stable earnings and favorable dividend sustainability [3] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a valuation advantage for high-dividend stocks, supported by a conducive market environment for their performance [3] - Regulatory policies enhancing dividend oversight, combined with a low-interest-rate environment, are likely to accelerate the entry of long-term capital into the market, maintaining the investment value of Hong Kong dividend stocks [3]