有朋友问，历史上的牛熊市有啥特征呢？ 参考历史，哪些品种会在牛市中上涨？ 当前处于牛市的什么阶段，我们该如何应对呢？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0822 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2013-2017年行情回顾 ▼ 2012-2014年，5点几星级断断续续出现 2012-2014年，因为基本面低迷，上市公司盈利下滑，A股出现5点几星的熊市。 期间，中证全指最大回撤达到了39.24%。 近一年来，A股整体上涨 2024年以来，A股市场整体上涨。 其中，成长风格相对强势；价值风格相对低迷，涨幅略低。 从下图可以看到，从2024年初到2025年8月21日，中证全指最大涨幅56.98%。 而相比之下： · 代表价值风格的300价值指数，同期最大涨幅要略低一些，为45.13%； · 代表成长风格的创业板指数，表现比较强势，同期涨幅则是达到了82.16%。 下面，我们就来回顾下。 ▼ 2014年下半年，证券保险等金融股大幅上涨 2014年下半年，在一揽子降准降息、刺激经 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ——丁宁） T'J·四、 M AVVI日JXノ——JIXO 当时对杠杆投资、场外配资等管控较松， 带动市场出现一波杠杆牛。 A股在几个月时间里，从5星一口气涨到1星 泡沫估值。当时中证全指，从2000多点， 最高冲到8000多点。 同时，在2015年中小盘、成长风格大涨的 时候，价值风格相对低迷，跑输市场。 不过，因为市场太疯狂，2015年下半年， A股整体腰斩下跌。估值也快速回落到4点 几星。 (4) 2016年 随着2014年推出的一篮子刺激政策逐渐落 地，A股上市公司基本面逐渐复苏。 2014-2015年上涨比较少的价值股、消费 股，逐渐发力上涨。 2016-2017年出现了一轮基本面复苏,带 来的价值股慢牛行情。红利、价值、低波 动，以及消费等行业，逐渐上涨，在2017 年底，超过2015年牛市最高位水平。 而中小盘、成长股，因为2015年涨的实在 太多，2015-2017年整体下跌。 2024年，跟2013-2014年比较相似。 · 2023-2024年,也是基本面低迷,上市公 司盈利整体下降。 ·2024年9月，随着美联储首次降息，咱们 也推出了一篮子的降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows a rapid rotation between value and growth stocks, reminiscent of the market dynamics observed from 2013 to 2017, with potential for various sectors to experience upward momentum [4][5][6][26]. Market Performance - The overall market closed higher today, returning to a rating of 4.5 stars, with small and mid-cap stocks showing more significant gains compared to large-cap stocks [1][2][3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has been relatively sluggish, experiencing a decline today, despite having seen three waves of increases since last September [8][9][10]. Historical Comparison - The current market conditions are compared to the period from 2013 to 2017, where the A-share market faced a bear market due to poor fundamentals and declining corporate profits [13][28]. - The introduction of stimulus policies in 2014 led to a significant recovery in the market, particularly in the financial sector, which drove the overall market upward [14][15]. - The years 2016-2017 saw a recovery in the fundamentals of listed companies, leading to a slow bull market for value stocks, while growth stocks experienced a downturn [21][24]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to follow a similar trajectory to 2013-2014, with a potential recovery in corporate fundamentals anticipated in the latter half of 2024, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29][30]. - The first wave of the upcoming market rally is likely to be led by the financial sector, with small-cap and technology stocks expected to follow suit in 2025 [31][32]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach remains consistent: buy during market dips and sell during peaks, while maintaining patience for optimal exit opportunities [45][47]. - The prolonged bear market from 2022 to 2024 has provided ample opportunities for accumulating quality assets through systematic investment [46].

上证指数八连阳撑不住了？A 股这波大面积调整来得倒是"及时"！别傻了，调整本身算个屁，真正坑人的是——跌的时候集体跳水比谁都狠，涨回去的时候 却个个装死拖后腿！更恶心的是，调整一来，各种小道消息就跟苍蝇似的围上来嗡嗡叫。 就这两天，多少股票跌起来跟亡命蹦极似的，跌到底想反弹？呵，慢得跟蛆爬似的，想回血？做梦！说白了，这就是机构大资金在行情震荡里故意下的套， 专坑那些没脑子的散户！ 比如，两融交易活跃度创年内新高！52万多名投资者正在用真金白银表达对市场的热情。这让我想起十年前那个疯狂的夏天，"杠杆牛"的记忆还历历在目。 但有趣的是，"历史不会简单重复"这句老话再次应验——如今的杠杆率比2015年稳健得多。 一，两融狂欢下的冷思考 表面上看755万两融大军浩浩荡荡冲向战场是个好消息——毕竟流动性充裕总比枯竭强得多。但作为过来人我深知：热闹的数字背后往往藏着最残酷的市场 真相。 记得2015年那会儿，"全民加杠杆"的口号响彻云霄。系统里的「机构震仓」数据几乎天天报警——那是大玩家们在不停搞事造成的！可惜当时大多数人只顾 盯着K线图上蹿下跳的数字狂欢。 如今监管层把保证金比例提高到80%，看似限制了杠杆威力实则救了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "slow bull" market in A-shares, contrasting it with previous rapid bull markets and highlighting the importance of understanding the current market dynamics for investment strategies [2][5][42]. Group 1: Characteristics of the "Slow Bull" Market - The current A-share market is showing signs of a "slow bull" similar to the U.S. market, characterized by steady growth rather than rapid spikes [6][10]. - Key elements of a "slow bull" include strong economic fundamentals, high dividends, and loose market liquidity, which are evident in the current A-share environment [7][8][11]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - As of mid-2025, China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3%, exceeding the initial target of 5%, with a notable 9.08% year-on-year revenue growth and a 16.87% increase in net profit among A-share companies [11][12]. - The trend of increasing dividends is also present, with A-share companies distributing 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [13]. Group 3: Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the A-share market is being bolstered by institutional and individual investors, with significant policy support aimed at increasing long-term capital inflow [14][16]. - A notable increase in new A-share accounts, reaching 1.9636 million in July 2025, indicates growing retail investor participation [16]. Group 4: Impact of Real Estate Market - The decline of major real estate companies, such as China Evergrande, is shifting capital flows from real estate to the stock market, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares [20][21]. - The overall sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 13.3% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a weakening real estate sector [20]. Group 5: Policy Support and Investor Confidence - Regulatory measures, including interest rate cuts and reduced IPO activity, have been implemented to support the A-share market, fostering investor confidence [28][30]. - The tightening of IPO policies has been perceived positively by investors, contributing to a sense of security in the market [32][34]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the positive indicators, a significant portion of capital remains cautious, with 63.8% of residents still favoring savings over investments [37]. - Analysts generally agree on the existence of a "slow bull" market, with differing opinions on the pace and main drivers of growth, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [42][44].

上一次A股融资余额突破2万亿元，还是在2015年5月20日。彼时A股正在经历"快牛"行情，沪指正争夺 4500点整数关口。在那一轮行情中，A股融资余额在2014年12月19日破1万亿元，随后只用了100个交易 日，便突破了2万亿元。彼时沪指在2014年年末突破3000点，在短短数月内迅速冲高，A股融资余额也 激增了万亿元规模，在2015年6月18日的融资余额见顶，达到22666.35万亿元。彼时，除两融资金外， 场外配资也成了推动该轮牛市快速爆发的原因，因此该牛市也被称为"杠杆牛"。此后随着沪指见顶下 落，杠杆资金迅速撤退，在2015年7月2日沪指跌破4000点，融资余额跌落2万亿元整数关口，随后的10 年来再未突破这一整数关口。 （编辑：夏欣 审核：何莎莎 校对：翟军） 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 对比来看，当前此轮A股融资余额破2万亿元则经过较长时间的"蓄能"，杠杆水平更加稳健。其中，从 2015年沪指冲高回落后，随着市场行情的反复，融资余额最低缩量到7000亿元左右水平，在2021年最高 达到1.7万亿元上方，此后再度回落。直到去年"9·27"行情启动，融资余额从1.3万亿元左右逐步上行， 最终在2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of dividend assets compared to growth assets in different market phases, highlighting the potential risks of dividend assets under certain market conditions, particularly during bull markets [4][26]. Market Phases Analysis - From 2014 to present, dividend assets have shown low volatility and steady growth, while growth assets like the ChiNext have experienced more dramatic fluctuations [6]. - In the early bull market phase (2014-2015), the dividend index rose by 177%, but growth stocks outperformed with a 194% increase in the ChiNext index [8]. - During the 2015 stock market crash, the dividend index fell by 44%, similar to the declines in the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [11]. - In the structural bull market phase (2016-2017), the dividend index increased by 44%, matching the CSI 300, while the ChiNext index only rose by 6% [14]. - In the bear market of 2018, the dividend index decreased by 25%, but it had the smallest decline compared to other indices [17]. - From 2019 to 2021, the dividend index only increased by 24%, significantly lagging behind the ChiNext's 170% rise [19]. - During the adjustment period (2021-2022), the dividend index fell by 4%, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [21]. - In the current oscillation phase (2022-2024), the dividend index has risen by 4%, while other indices have declined [23]. - Looking ahead to the potential explosive phase starting in Q4 2024, the dividend index is expected to lag behind growth styles due to a lack of valuation elasticity [25]. Investment Strategy Insights - The article concludes that while dividend assets may underperform in bull markets driven by risk appetite, they can perform well in structural bull markets where both valuation and earnings recover [26]. - Historical market trends indicate that a balanced asset allocation is essential for navigating different market environments and achieving sustainable returns [27].